• NVIDIA (NVDA) shares fell approximately 2.9% on February 2, 2026, closing at $185.61 from $191.13, hitting an over one-month low.
  • The decline, reported as 2.5-3.8% across sources, reflects investor concerns over rumors of management reconsidering a $100 billion investment in OpenAI (MSFT).
  • This setback comes despite NVIDIA's strong AI chip dominance and recent financial performance, with the drop tied to AI sector volatility and valuation worries.

NVIDIA shares tumbled to their lowest level in more than a month on February 2, 2026, closing at $185.61 after a 2.9% drop from $191.13, according to market data. The decline, which sources pegged at 2.5% to 3.8%, has rattled investors amid whispers that the semiconductor giant is rethinking a massive $100 billion investment in OpenAI. Without a deal, the company could face heightened scrutiny over its capital allocation strategies, though executives have remained tight-lipped so far.

Efforts to navigate this volatility have hit a snag, with the rumor sparking concerns about the investment's scale relative to NVIDIA's $187 billion trailing twelve-month revenue and $113 billion EBITDA. People familiar with the matter suggest that internal discussions are ongoing, but no formal announcements are imminent. The company, a leader in AI chips with products like the H200, has been a cornerstone of the AI infrastructure boom, making any shift in its aggressive expansion plans a focal point for market watchers.

In early 2025, NVIDIA faced a steep drop from a $5.5 billion charge on H20 chip export restrictions to China, but it rebounded with stellar Q3 results driven by data center growth. Now, with shares hovering around $187.88 and underperforming the Nasdaq over six months, this latest dip adds to the narrative of recurring trade sensitivity. Analysts point to U.S.-China tensions, including tariff risks and export curbs, as persistent headwinds that could stall 2025 momentum if not managed carefully.

Jensen Huang, NVIDIA's CEO, has been vocal at events like CES and the World Economic Forum about the company's AI ambitions, but the OpenAI rumor has introduced a new layer of uncertainty. Attempts to reach NVIDIA for comment were unsuccessful, though industry insiders note that the firm's partnerships, such as a $2 billion investment in CoreWeave (CRWV) for AI infrastructure, continue to signal long-term confidence. Meanwhile, China's recent authorization of H200 imports offers a glimmer of stability in a turbulent geopolitical landscape.

Short-term predictions are mixed: AI models forecast a rally to around $196.88 by February 28, 2026, a 4.77% increase, while Wall Street maintains a bullish $262.79 target over 21 months. Betting markets like Polymarket show heavy volume favoring dips to $176, but also higher rebound odds, reflecting the market's split sentiment. In the long run, targets include $300.14 by year-end 2026, driven by relentless AI demand, though experts caution that execution will trump headlines in determining NVIDIA's trajectory.

As shareholders digest the drop, the broader implications hinge on whether NVIDIA can balance its aggressive AI expansion against returns, a debate that echoes past events like the H20-related decline. With analyst consensus still leaning 'Buy' and global AI growth supporting recovery, this episode may prove a temporary setback rather than a trend reversal. For now, investors are watching for any official word from management, with the next earnings call likely to provide more clarity on the company's strategic direction.