• Oil prices could jump 5-10% when trading opens, according to Patrick De Haan, Head of Petroleum Analysis at GasBuddy.
  • US gasoline may rise up to 25 cents per gallon if the conflict drags on, though OPEC+ production decisions could ease the increase.
  • The potential surge follows recent volatility from Red Sea disruptions, OPEC+ cuts, and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries.

Oil markets are bracing for another round of turbulence as geopolitical risks threaten to send crude prices sharply higher at the opening bell. Patrick De Haan, who heads petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told sources that oil could spike 5-10% when trading resumes, with US gasoline potentially climbing as much as 25 cents per gallon if tensions persist. The warning comes amid what one industry insider described as "a perfect storm" of supply constraints and escalating conflicts.

De Haan, who has tracked fuel markets through crises since 2009, pointed to recent Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries—which have knocked out roughly 1% of global refining capacity—as a key pressure point. Combined with ongoing Red Sea shipping disruptions and OPEC+'s production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day, the stage is set for another volatile chapter in energy markets. "We're seeing the kind of conditions that typically precede a sharp move," De Haan said, speaking on background. Efforts to stabilize prices through coordinated releases from strategic reserves have provided only temporary relief, according to people familiar with the matter.

Market participants are closely watching OPEC+ for any signal that the group might adjust its output to calm prices. Without such intervention, analysts fear a repeat of 2022's surge, when gasoline topped $5 per gallon nationally after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Already, the national average has climbed to $3.54, up 8% in the past month alone, according to GasBuddy data. One trader, who requested anonymity due to company policy, noted that refining margins have tightened significantly in recent weeks, putting additional upward pressure on pump prices.

The White House has been monitoring the situation but maintains that global supply-demand fundamentals, not presidential policies, drive oil prices. Still, the political implications are unavoidable: higher fuel costs strain household budgets and often dominate election-year debates. Lower-income drivers feel the pinch most acutely, though when adjusted for earnings, today's prices represent less of a burden than historical peaks, De Haan has argued in past analyses. He urges an economic perspective over political narratives, noting that US crude production hit a record 12.9 million barrels per day in 2023, helping to moderate prices despite global disruptions.

Looking ahead, the short-term outlook remains fraught. Summer driving season looms, and any further escalation in conflicts could push prices higher still. However, some relief might come if OPEC+ decides to boost output or if seasonal refining shifts ease bottlenecks. De Haan predicts no lasting price extremes barring a major new disruption, but cautions that markets are in a delicate balance. "It's a waiting game now," said one refinery executive, who declined to be named. "Everyone's eyes are on the next headline."