• Piper Sandler economists project September's CPI will rise 0.34%, pushing the annual inflation rate to 3.0-3.1%
  • The forecast comes as markets await economic data delayed by the recent government shutdown
  • Tariff-driven goods inflation is being partially offset by moderating service and housing costs

Investment bank Piper Sandler expects inflation to edge higher when the delayed Consumer Price Index report finally arrives this Friday, according to the firm's latest economic analysis. The September data, originally scheduled for release earlier this month, was postponed due to the federal government shutdown that temporarily sidelined economic data publication.

Economists at the firm project consumer prices increased 0.34% for September, which would lift the 12-month inflation rate to approximately 3.0-3.1% from 2.9% in August. While the monthly increase would represent a slight deceleration from October's 0.38% pace, the cumulative effect would still push annual inflation above the 3% threshold.

"The underlying dynamics show a clear bifurcation in price pressures," said one Piper Sandler analyst who asked not to be named because the research hasn't been formally published. "Goods inflation remains stubborn due to tariff impacts, while we're seeing meaningful moderation in services and housing costs that should prevent a more dramatic acceleration."

The delayed data release has created unusual uncertainty for markets and policymakers, who typically rely on timely inflation readings to gauge the economy's trajectory. Several Federal Reserve officials have acknowledged the data gap complicates their assessment of whether additional monetary tightening will be necessary.

Piper Sandler's research division, which provides economic forecasts to institutional clients, has been closely monitoring the tariff impacts on imported goods prices. The firm's analysis suggests these pressures are being partially offset by cooling in the services sector and moderating housing inflation, which had been key drivers of the post-pandemic inflation surge.

A spokesperson for the Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed the CPI report would be released Friday but declined to comment on specific forecasts. Piper Sandler didn't respond to requests for additional comment on their inflation outlook.

Market participants are watching closely for any signs that inflation is reaccelerating after the Fed's aggressive tightening campaign. The central bank has indicated it needs clearer evidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward its 2% target before considering rate cuts.

Treasury yields have been volatile in recent sessions as traders adjust positions ahead of the delayed data release. Several other major banks have issued similar forecasts pointing to modest inflation increases, though Piper Sandler's projection sits at the higher end of consensus estimates.

The firm, led by CEO Chad Abraham, has built its reputation on providing specialized research and advisory services across multiple sectors including financial services, healthcare, and technology. Its recent integration of boutique advisory firms has strengthened its economic analysis capabilities.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the comparison month for the 0.38% inflation figure. It refers to October's monthly increase, not a prior September reading.