• Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour forecasts prediction markets will match stock markets in size and influence within a few years
  • The prediction market industry is experiencing explosive growth, projected to reach $95.5 billion by 2035 with 46.8% annual growth
  • Regulatory uncertainty remains the primary headwind as platforms gain mainstream traction among retail investors

Prediction markets could rival traditional equity markets in both scale and significance within the coming years, according to a bold prediction from Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour. The forecast comes as event-based trading platforms experience what industry observers describe as "explosive growth," though they remain dwarfed by the $100 trillion global stock market.

Mansour's comments, made during private meetings with investors last week, reflect growing confidence within the prediction market sector that these platforms are transitioning from niche curiosities to mainstream financial tools. "We're seeing a fundamental shift in how people think about risk and information," Mansour told colleagues, according to two people familiar with the discussions. "The lines between traditional finance and information markets are blurring faster than anyone anticipated."

The prediction market industry is projected to reach $95.5 billion by 2035, growing at a remarkable 46.8% annual rate, according to recent market analysis. While still a fraction of traditional equity markets, the growth trajectory has caught the attention of major financial platforms. Robinhood Markets Inc. is among the established trading platforms reportedly exploring prediction product offerings, signaling broader industry interest.

Kalshi, as one of the leading U.S.-regulated prediction platforms, allows users to trade contracts on outcomes ranging from Federal Reserve decisions and election results to weather events and entertainment awards. The platform treats these event outcomes as tradable assets, functioning similarly to how shares trade on stock exchanges.

What's driving the surge? Market participants point to prediction markets' unique ability to aggregate collective intelligence and provide real-time consensus on uncertain outcomes. Unlike traditional equities tied to corporate earnings, these markets enable trading based purely on information across politics, policy, weather, and social trends. This broader applicability is what some industry voices believe could eventually help prediction contracts surpass equities in popularity.

Regulatory hurdles remain the most significant challenge. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has historically scrutinized event-based trading due to concerns about potential overlaps with gambling and market manipulation. While the sector remains "lightly regulated" compared to the tightly overseen stock market, growing volumes and high-profile platforms are increasing pressure for clearer policy frameworks.

Without more regulatory certainty, scaling prediction markets to rival traditional finance will prove difficult, according to people familiar with CFTC thinking. The commission is walking a fine line between encouraging innovation and preventing fraud or addiction concerns that have dogged similar markets in the past.

Kalshi didn't respond to requests for additional comment on Mansour's prediction or the company's growth metrics. Private market sources indicate the platform has seen user activity increase substantially through the first half of 2025, particularly around political and macroeconomic events.

As one early investor in prediction markets noted, "The infrastructure is improving rapidly. Between better market makers and more sophisticated participants, we're seeing these markets become increasingly efficient at price discovery." The question now is whether regulators and mainstream investors will embrace them with the same enthusiasm as early adopters.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the current value of the global prediction market industry. While projected to reach $95.5 billion by 2035, its current size remains substantially smaller.