• Russia's state nuclear giant warns of spiraling risks as U.S.-Israeli airstrikes target Iran's facilities.
  • The conflict disrupts a key $25 billion reactor deal and threatens global energy markets, benefiting Russia's oil revenues.
  • Moscow's diplomatic condemnations contrast with its inaction, fueling speculation amid heightened Kremlin tensions.

Russia's Rosatom has voiced concerns that military strikes on Iran's nuclear infrastructure are becoming increasingly uncontrolled, according to sources familiar with internal discussions, as U.S. and Israeli forces escalate airstrikes that began on February 28, 2026. The state-owned nuclear energy corporation, which employs around 300,000 people globally and secured a $25 billion contract in 2025 to build four new civilian reactors in Iran, is grappling with the fallout from attacks targeting sites like Tehran, Isfahan, and Natanz. Efforts to reach Rosatom for official comment were unsuccessful, but insiders describe a climate of shock in Moscow over the scale of the operations, which have expanded to include Iranian leadership and military assets.

Without a swift de-escalation, the company's lucrative projects in Iran, including the existing Bushehr reactor, face significant delays or cancellation, potentially derailing a major revenue stream. The strikes have already prompted Iranian retaliatory missile and drone attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure, such as the UAE's Jebel Ali power plant and Saudi Arabia's Ras Tan refinery, spiking oil prices to levels that inadvertently bolster Russia's war funding against Ukraine. This market volatility, coupled with threats to the Strait of Hormuz, could disrupt global shipments, though it reduces competition for Russian oil in markets like China and India.

Russia has condemned the strikes as "unprovoked aggression" through its Foreign Ministry and at the UN Security Council, echoing its response to a similar U.S. strike in June 2025, but has provided no material support to Iran despite a strategic partnership treaty signed in January 2025. The timing of the attacks, amid ongoing Geneva talks, has been viewed in Moscow as a "stab in the back," heightening Kremlin paranoia over potential decapitation risks. President Vladimir Putin personally condemned the targeting of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, yet the lack of action from a recent Security Council meeting has fueled media debates and elite speculation about Russia's stance.

In the short term, U.S. and Israeli objectives aim for air superiority and dismantling half of Iran's missile launchers within a month, according to plans cited by former President Trump, while Iran escalates energy attacks to pressure for a ceasefire. For Rosatom, this means navigating a precarious environment where its nuclear expertise is caught in geopolitical crossfire. The company's leadership has not announced any changes, but the conflict tests its ability to maintain operations in a region where defense ties, such as Russia supplying Su-35 jets and Iran providing Shahed drones, are intensifying. Analysts note that Russia likely hopes for a U.S. quagmire, offering only rhetorical support as it capitalizes on oil gains, but the long-term risk of a wider war could further destabilize projects critical to Rosatom's global footprint.

Correction: An earlier version misstated the number of new reactors in the 2025 deal; it is four, not three.