• Russia is weighing a return to dollar-based settlements as part of a potential economic partnership with a Trump administration, according to a Kremlin memo.
  • The proposal includes cooperation on fossil fuels, natural gas, offshore oil, critical materials, and U.S. corporate gains, potentially tied to a peace settlement in Ukraine.
  • Western officials remain skeptical, doubting Putin would act against China's interests, and it's unclear if proposals have been formally presented to the U.S.

Russia is considering a dramatic reversal of its recent financial strategy, with a Kremlin memo outlining proposals to rejoin the dollar system as part of a broader economic partnership with a potential Trump administration, according to people familiar with the matter. This move would mark a significant shift from Russia's push toward alternative payment systems, particularly the renminbi, following SWIFT sanctions imposed after the Ukraine invasion.

The document suggests cooperation on fossil fuels, natural gas, offshore oil, critical materials, and U.S. corporate gains, potentially tied to a peace deal in Ukraine. Efforts to restructure Russia's financial ties have hit a snag, however, as Western officials express doubt that Putin would act in ways that undermine China's interests. Without a formal agreement, Russia's economic isolation could persist, complicating global trade flows.

Sources indicate the proposal remains exploratory, with uncertainty over whether it has been formally presented to the Trump team. A senior European diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, noted, "This seems more like a trial balloon than a concrete plan, given the deep ties between Moscow and Beijing." Attempts to reach Kremlin spokespeople for comment were unsuccessful as of Thursday.

Russia's potential pivot comes at a critical juncture for the dollar's global status, with 2026 identified as a potential turning point. Political interference concerns, including expected Trump influence over Jerome Powell's successor at the Federal Reserve in May 2026, could erode confidence in the institution as a guardian of currency value. Meanwhile, emerging economies have been gradually moving away from dollar dependency, with Russia increasingly using China's payment systems for trade settlements.

If formalized, this shift would signal a significant diplomatic realignment, but broader skepticism about U.S. institutional reliability under Trump's approach may paradoxically undermine confidence in dollar-based systems. European leaders, wary of U.S. pullback from traditional alliances, might accelerate efforts to create independent financial mechanisms. The credibility of these proposals hangs in the balance, with filing deadlines for any agreements likely to face intense scrutiny from international partners.

Correction: An earlier version misstated the timing of Federal Reserve leadership changes; it is expected in May 2026, not 2025.