• Russia's foreign ministry calls for diplomatic talks to restore shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, rejecting coercive measures amid a near-total closure.
  • Tanker traffic has dropped by about 70% with over 150 vessels anchored outside the strait, while war-risk insurance premiums soar and major carriers reroute.
  • Global energy markets and supply chains face severe disruption, with Brent crude and LNG prices spiking and ocean-freight diversions up more than 360%.

Russia's foreign-ministry spokesperson emphasized in mid-March 2026 that the restoration of shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz should be settled through negotiations, not coercive measures. This stance comes as the critical waterway, which handles roughly 20% of global oil and gas flows, has seen tanker and container movements drop sharply or even fall to near-zero at times due to Iran-linked attacks and warnings.

By early March 2026, open-source data indicated Iran had carried out at least 21 confirmed attacks on merchant ships, making the Strait effectively closed to normal traffic. Efforts to navigate the crisis have hit a snag, with war-risk insurance premiums for the Gulf "high-risk zone" broadened and raised, and some insurers withdrawing coverage temporarily. "Without a deal, the shipping industry would be forced into costly and prolonged rerouting," said one industry analyst, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of ongoing diplomatic talks.

Several major container lines have cancelled or rerouted departures, creating a surge in diversions. According to project44 data, ocean-freight diversions are up more than 360% in the Hormuz corridor versus pre-crisis levels, leading to longer Cape-of-Good-Hope-style routings around Africa. This has increased fuel costs, transit times, and port congestion, pushing ocean-freight rates upward across multiple trade lanes. Shipping companies most affected include large global container carriers and major oil tankers servicing Gulf producers, whose insurers are part of the International Group of P&I Clubs that sets war-risk terms for the region.

Energy markets have reacted with volatility: Brent crude and seaborne LNG prices spiked after traffic fell, though U.S. and other officials have suggested that normal traffic through Hormuz should resume "within a few weeks, not months." Global supply chains are under strain, particularly for Asia–Europe container routes and Gulf-exposed sectors such as petrochemicals and LNG. Asian LNG-importing countries have scrambled for alternative cargoes as Qatari and Iranian volumes are disrupted.

Iranian authorities have declared the Strait "open" in principle but have allowed selective passage, with AIS data showing mainly Iranian-flagged vessels and a few China-linked ships transiting, while many Western-linked ships are blocked or deterred. Russia frames the crisis as a matter of regional security and "maritime sovereignty," using its diplomatic platform to argue that de-escalation and negotiations—not unilateral military or insurance measures—should restore traffic. The United States and its allies have signaled possible naval-escort convoys and federal insurance backstops for Gulf shipping, but shippers warn that such schemes only partially offset the political and security risks.

Key stakeholders include Gulf-based workers and port communities, whose short-term employment and port activity depend on vessel calls; many Gulf ports are seeing reduced throughput and rising congestion as carriers reschedule or cancel calls. Energy-importing countries, especially in Asia and Europe, face higher fuel and power prices, while consumers and industries there may see ripple-effects in goods-transport costs and inflation. Shipping companies and insurers are under pressure from clients to guarantee safe passage, but also from governments and investors to avoid politically risky routes.

Short-term, analysts expect a gradual resumption of partial traffic if diplomatic channels, including Russia-mediated talks and regional actors such as Oman, succeed in securing clearer guarantees on freedom of navigation and war-risk coverage. Long-term, energy-importers and carriers may diversify logistics networks, while insurers may harden terms for Gulf-zone operations, making the Strait more expensive to traverse even in normal times. Experts stress that if the Strait remains under recurrent threat, global trade resilience will increasingly depend on redundancy in routing and stronger multilateral mechanisms for protecting key chokepoints.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the timeline for traffic restoration; it has been updated to reflect current diplomatic assessments.