• Turkish imports of Russian Urals crude fell to their lowest in about 18 months in May, as refiners diversified away amid tightening Western sanctions.
  • The shift reflects Turkey's strategic move to reduce exposure to Russian oil, turning to alternatives from Iraq, Kazakhstan, and other suppliers.
  • The decline could impact Mediterranean crude flows and pricing dynamics, with potential ripple effects on Turkey's energy import costs.

Urals Flows Hit 18-Month Low

Turkey’s imports of Russia’s Urals crude slumped to their weakest level in roughly 18 months in May, according to shipping data and trader sources. The decline underscores a broader recalibration by Turkish refiners, who are increasingly sourcing from Iraq, Kazakhstan, and other grades to reduce reliance on Russian oil amid tighter Western sanctions enforcement.

“Turkish refiners are actively diversifying their crude slate,” one trader familiar with the matter said, speaking on condition of anonymity. “The regulatory and reputational risks around Urals are becoming harder to ignore.”

Buyers including Tupras, Turkey’s largest refinery operator, have scaled back spot purchases of the grade, instead turning to alternatives such as Iraqi Basrah and Kazakh CPC Blend. The shift has been underway since late 2024 and accelerated in early 2026, with May volumes estimated at around 283,000 barrels per day—up from April but still the lowest since late 2024.

Sanctions and Market Dynamics

The drop comes as Western sanctions on Russian oil producers and secondary-market enforcement measures continue to shape trade flows. Turkey has maintained it does not join sanctions but expects its companies to comply with international law, creating a careful balancing act. The price cap mechanism has made Urals less attractive for some buyers, while freight and insurance costs for Russian crude have risen.

“The differential for Urals has narrowed, making alternative grades more competitive,” said an analyst tracking Black Sea crude flows. “Turkey is taking advantage of a buyer’s market to secure more diversified supply.”

Industry sources note that private-sector refineries are also adjusting their crude diets, seeking to hedge against potential disruption. However, the shift away from Urals could push up Turkey’s import bill if alternatives prove pricier or logistics more complex.

Broader Implications

The decline in Urals flows to Turkey may affect Mediterranean and Black Sea supply balances. With less Russian crude heading to Turkey, more volumes could be redirected to India or other destinations, while Turkey’s increased demand for Iraqi and Kazakh crude tightens those markets.

“Turkey’s diversification is part of a larger trend,” said a senior oil trader in Istanbul. “Large buyers are recalibrating their crude slates to reduce sanctions risk. That’s reshaping regional trade patterns.”

Efforts to reach Tupras for comment were unsuccessful. The company has previously stated it complies with all applicable laws and adjusts its crude sourcing based on commercial and operational needs.

Outlook

Analysts expect Turkish Urals imports to remain subdued in the near term, with potential fluctuations depending on sanctions developments and refinery maintenance schedules. Longer term, Turkey’s crude mix is likely to become more diversified, though Urals may still play a role if discounts widen enough to offset risks.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the month-over-month change in May imports. The correct figure is roughly 283,000 bpd, up from April.