• Saudi Aramco loaded approximately 14 million barrels of crude on seven VLCCs near Ras Tanura on Sunday, according to shipping data and satellite images seen by Reuters.
  • The sharp increase in Gulf loadings aims to offset disrupted Red Sea exports after damage to the East-West pipeline, but it exposes Saudi barrels to the security risks of the Strait of Hormuz.
  • The move restores some supply to Asian refiners while raising freight, insurance, and operational complexity, with potential implications for global oil prices and Saudi fiscal revenue.

Aramco Ramps Up Gulf Loadings

Saudi Aramco is rapidly increasing crude loadings from its Gulf terminals, with seven very large crude carriers carrying roughly 14 million barrels near Ras Tanura on Sunday, according to shipping data and satellite images seen by Reuters. The operational shift is designed to compensate for disrupted Red Sea exports and move oil through the still-risky Strait of Hormuz.

The immediate driver is damage to Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and the resulting slowdown or suspension of exports through Yanbu on the Red Sea. That pipeline normally provides a strategic alternative to Hormuz by transporting crude across Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea. With that route impaired, Aramco has shifted barrels back toward Ras Tanura, Juaymah, and ship-to-ship transfers off Oman.

The reported loading event follows an earlier acceleration. Vortexa data cited by Reuters showed 22 million barrels on 12 vessels loading from Ras Tanura and Juaymah during September 7–13, compared with six to seven vessels weekly in each of the preceding three weeks. Reuters also reported that Aramco has sold about 60 million barrels of crude for September–October loading from Ras Tanura, with much of it moved via ship-to-ship transfers near Sohar, Oman. Its Gulf exports are estimated at about 1.0–1.5 million barrels per day, similar to or slightly above August levels.

Asian Buyers Get Relief, but Risks Persist

The additional loadings help restore some supply to Asian customers, with China and South Korea among the significant buyers of the newly offered spot supply. Cargoes are also heading to India and Japan. Their access to Saudi crude reduces some near-term feedstock risk, though it may come with higher delivered costs and scheduling uncertainty.

For European refiners, the impact is more negative. Saudi Arabia reportedly reduced or cancelled some Europe-bound cargoes after the pipeline damage, forcing affected refiners—such as Poland’s Orlen—to seek replacement supply.

Tanker security remains the core constraint. Shipping traffic through Hormuz is far below normal, and recent reports describe attacks on commercial vessels. Saudi barrels can physically move through the route, but insurance, freight costs, voyage risk, and the chance of further disruption remain elevated. The increased reliance on VLCCs, transits through a hazardous passage, and ship-to-ship operations near Oman raises tanker demand, war-risk insurance costs, and operational complexity.

Financial and Strategic Implications

The contrast in Aramco’s financial position is important. The company’s 2025 earnings weakened as oil prices and revenue fell, with full-year revenue of SAR 1,559.34 billion (down 4.76% year on year) and net profit of SAR 348.04 billion (down 11.64%). But its 2026 first-half results strengthened materially, with adjusted net income of $67.2 billion, including $33.4 billion in the second quarter. Aramco declared a $21.9 billion base dividend for the second quarter, payable in the third quarter.

The current export disruption may support crude prices and improve realized upstream revenue, yet that potential benefit must be weighed against increased transport costs, operational risk, possible deferred deliveries, and the danger of physical supply losses.

For Saudi Arabia’s public finances, oil-export availability is central to fiscal revenue and the funding of domestic investment plans. A prolonged inability to ship safely, rather than merely a fall in production, would threaten revenue even if global prices rise. One recent analysis cited a UBS (UBS) estimate of a 2026 Saudi budget deficit of 5% of GDP, compared with a 3.3% original target.

The broader context underscores the severity: EIA data show oil flows through Hormuz averaging 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, versus 21.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025. Even a sizeable Saudi export ramp therefore repairs only part of the disruption to the region’s normal maritime energy flows.

What to Watch

Aramco is likely to continue elevated Ras Tanura and Juaymah loadings, commercial sales to Asian buyers, and ship-to-ship transfers near Sohar while Yanbu-related capacity is impaired. Industry estimates cited in reporting put full repairs to the East-West pipeline at roughly five to six weeks, while partial flows could resume sooner; that timing remains uncertain.

Oil prices could remain exceptionally volatile: more Saudi barrels moving successfully through Hormuz are price-cooling, while any attack, transit stoppage, insurance withdrawal, or new infrastructure damage would be price-supportive.

Aramco did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Reuters could not independently verify the satellite images.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the estimated timing for full repairs to the East-West pipeline. It is approximately five to six weeks, not four to five.