• Morgan Stanley highlights SpaceX's planned $100 billion Louisiana launch complex as a potential major upside driver.
  • The site could significantly boost Starship capacity, supporting SpaceX's foray into orbital AI computing.
  • Morgan Stanley values SpaceX at $137 per share, with each additional gigawatt of orbital compute adding about $27 per share.

A Bold Bet on Orbital Computing

SpaceX's ambitious plan to build a massive launch complex in Louisiana, carrying a price tag of $100 billion, is drawing attention from investors who may be overlooking its implications, according to Morgan Stanley. The facility, if realized, could dramatically expand Starship’s launch capacity, enabling a new frontier: orbital AI computing.

In a research note, analysts led by Adam Jonas argue that the market has not fully priced in the potential of this venture. The firm values SpaceX at $137 per share, but estimates that every additional gigawatt of orbital compute capacity could add roughly $27 per share—a significant upside that is currently not reflected in valuations.

The Intersection of Space and AI

The idea of running AI workloads in orbit is gaining traction among both space and tech enthusiasts. Orbital data centers could offer advantages in cooling and access to solar energy, though the technical hurdles are formidable. Morgan Stanley’s analysis suggests that SpaceX’s launch infrastructure is a key enabler, but the costs are astronomical.

“This is a frontier that requires massive capital,” said one industry analyst, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Execution risks are high, and financing remains a critical question.”

Debt Financing and Risks

The Louisiana project would necessitate substantial debt financing, adding to SpaceX’s already significant capital requirements. While the company has a track record of ambitious engineering, the scale of this endeavor is unprecedented.

Without a firm commitment from lenders, the timeline could slip. “The capital markets will be the gating factor,” another person familiar with the matter noted.

When approached for comment, a SpaceX representative did not respond. Morgan Stanley declined to elaborate beyond the note.

What’s Next

Investors will be watching for concrete steps toward securing permits and financing. The Louisiana complex is still in early planning stages, but its potential to reshape both the space and AI sectors is clear—if the risks can be managed.

This article was updated to clarify that Morgan Stanley’s valuation applies to SpaceX’s stock, not the company's total value.