• Well-timed oil futures bets placed ahead of major Iran-war announcements in March and April exceeded $7 billion, far more extensive than previously known.
  • The trades spanned crude, gasoline, and diesel contracts across multiple exchanges, triggering scrutiny from the U.S. CFTC and DOJ for potential insider trading.
  • Regulators are investigating whether traders had access to material nonpublic information about impending geopolitical developments.

The volume of suspicious oil trades placed just before Iran-war headlines has been revised upward to at least $7 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. The bets, which were made across crude, gasoline, and diesel futures in March and April, were timed so precisely that they have drawn the attention of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Department of Justice.

The scale of the trades is far larger than previously reported, with positions spread across multiple exchanges and contract maturities. Authorities are focusing on whether the traders behind these bets had access to material nonpublic information about upcoming announcements related to Iran conflict escalation, according to sources close to the probe.

“The sheer size and timing of these positions are raising red flags,” said a former CFTC enforcement official. “You’re talking about bets that would have required significant capital and coordination.”

The investigations come amid heightened U.S.-Iran tensions, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining a key risk factor for global oil supplies. Any hint of escalation or de-escalation can cause sharp price swings, making precise timing particularly lucrative.

“We are committed to ensuring the integrity of our markets,” a CFTC spokesperson said in a statement, declining to comment on specific inquiries. The DOJ has also opened a parallel investigation, according to people familiar with the matter, though no charges have been filed.

The affected contracts include Brent crude, West Texas Intermediate, gasoline futures, and diesel contracts. The trades were executed on the New York Mercantile Exchange (CME) and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), among others.

Market participants have expressed concern over the potential for insider trading in geopolitically sensitive markets. “If someone had a heads-up on a major policy announcement, that’s a clear violation of the law,” said a compliance officer at a major trading firm.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the time frame of the trades. They occurred in March and April, not February and March.

Update: Reuters has confirmed the $7 billion figure, citing multiple sources familiar with the trading data.