• Tiger Research says Bitcoin is likely in the late stages of its bear cycle, with limited downside risk.
  • The firm expects the next rally to be driven by improving liquidity, institutional adoption, and expanding monetary demand.
  • Analysts point to ETF inflows and regulatory clarity as key catalysts for a shift to an institutional-led market.

Bear Market’s Final Act

Tiger Research has shifted to a more constructive stance on Bitcoin, arguing that the cryptocurrency is approaching the end of its bearish phase. In a recent note, the Asia-based research firm said it believes most of the selloff has already occurred, with any further weakness likely limited. The firm’s multi-factor valuation framework suggests that the market is in the “final stage” of the current cycle, setting the stage for a new uptrend.

“We are becoming more constructive on Bitcoin,” the firm wrote, citing improving macro liquidity, rising institutional participation, and expanding monetary demand as drivers for the next cycle. The report comes as Bitcoin trades near $68,000, recovering from a low of $15,000 in late 2022.

Institutional Adoption Takes the Lead

Tiger Research emphasizes that Bitcoin’s market is increasingly institution-driven rather than retail-led. The firm points to robust inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs (SPY) and discussions around including BTC in 401(k) plans as evidence of growing mainstream acceptance. “The institutional onboarding is a game-changer,” said a person familiar with the firm’s analysis. “We’re seeing demand from players who were on the sidelines before.”

Regulatory clarity is also a key factor. Tiger Research has highlighted potential legislative developments such as the CLARITY Act, which could provide a clearer framework for digital assets in the U.S. While such policies are still pending, the firm argues that any progress would further reduce risk premiums for Bitcoin.

Macro Tailwinds and Price Targets

The firm’s bullish outlook is tied to broader macroeconomic conditions. Tiger Research notes that global liquidity is on the rise, with central banks signaling a shift toward accommodative policy. Historically, Bitcoin has rallied during periods of expanding liquidity, and the firm sees a similar pattern emerging. In its bull case, Tiger Research has previously set price targets around $185,000 by early 2026, contingent on sustained tailwinds.

“If the macro and adoption theses hold, Bitcoin could experience sustained upside,” the report states. However, the firm acknowledges that near-term volatility remains possible due to shifts in ETF flows or unexpected economic data.

A Shift in Sentiment

Tiger Research’s more optimistic tone aligns with a broader narrative of recovery in the crypto market. Other analysts have echoed similar themes, pointing to institutional demand and regulatory progress as catalysts for a new cycle. The firm’s shift is notable given its historically data-driven approach, which often tempers hype with caution.

“We’ve seen this before – the bear market bottoms out when everyone is most pessimistic,” said an industry observer. “Tiger Research’s call adds weight to the idea that we’re turning a corner.”

As of press time, Tiger Research declined to comment further on its price targets or model assumptions. The firm’s latest report is available to clients.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated Tiger Research's price target as $185,500; the correct figure is approximately $185,000.