• Truist's Chief Market Strategist Keith Lerner asserts the U.S. bull market and economic expansion are far from over, forecasting 2.3% GDP growth for 2026.
  • The outlook is supported by a trio of catalysts: anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, tax relief, and AI-driven corporate spending, with corporate earnings expected to grow in the low double digits.
  • Broader market participation, small-cap opportunities, and a projected $158 billion tax refund boost are seen as constructive factors, though potential volatility is acknowledged.

Keith Lerner, representing the $544 billion-asset Truist Financial Corporation, delivered a resolutely optimistic assessment of the U.S. economic and market trajectory, arguing that the current cycle has considerable runway left. His forecast hinges on a confluence of supportive monetary, fiscal, and technological trends that he believes will sustain growth.

“We see the pillars for continued expansion as being firmly in place,” Lerner said in a recent briefing, pointing specifically to the expected pivot by the Federal Reserve. The anticipated easing cycle, combined with what he termed “meaningful fiscal support,” creates a favorable backdrop. A significant component of that support is a projected $158 billion boost from tax refunds, which analysts suggest could provide a timely lift to consumer spending next year.

On the corporate front, Lerner expects earnings to grow in the low double-digit percentage range, with technology and artificial intelligence sectors continuing to lead the charge. This isn't a story of narrow leadership, however. He emphasized broadening participation across market caps as a key strength of the current rally, highlighting particular opportunities in small-cap stocks that may have lagged in earlier phases.

The bullish call comes as Truist itself is executing on a significant growth plan, including a five-year strategic expansion to build 100 new branches and renovate over 300 others. The bank's own performance, with its Enterprise Payments business seeing a 14% year-over-year increase in treasury management fees, reflects the broader corporate health Lerner references.

Of course, no forecast is without caveats. Lerner acknowledged that the path higher is unlikely to be smooth, with potential volatility remaining a factor for investors to navigate. The sheer scale of investments in AI and technology, while a growth driver, also introduces questions about capital allocation and eventual returns. Yet, the overarching message from Truist’s strategist is one of continuity: the fundamental drivers for the bull market, in his view, are not yet exhausted.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the total assets of Truist Financial Corporation. The correct figure, as of September 30, 2025, is $544 billion.