• The Trump administration has finalized a rule reviving Schedule F, stripping civil service protections from tens of thousands of policy-related federal employees to enable at-will employment.
  • Agencies are preparing to submit lists of targeted employees for conversion to the Office of Personnel Management, with the rule expected for release in early 2026.
  • The move follows widespread layoffs and hiring restrictions under recent executive orders, aiming to cut federal spending and enhance presidential accountability, but critics warn of increased turnover costs and politicization risks.

A Sweeping Bureaucratic Shift

The Trump administration has finalized and is poised to imminently release a rule implementing Schedule Career/Policy, a revival of the first-term Schedule F, which would strip civil service protections from tens of thousands of federal employees in policy-related roles. According to people familiar with the matter, the final rule has been drafted and circulated to agencies, with release expected in early 2026. This overhaul enables at-will employment and aims to enhance presidential accountability, marking a significant shift in federal workforce management.

Efforts to restructure the civil service have hit a snag in the past, but this latest push appears more coordinated. Agencies are now submitting lists of targeted employees to the Office of Personnel Management for conversion, a process that could reshape the bureaucracy within months. Without this deal, the administration argues, inefficiencies would persist, but detractors fear it could force a wave of departures and legal challenges.

Regulatory and Economic Implications

OPM is also advancing separate proposals for layoff processes and a "forced distribution" performance system, adding layers to the administration's workforce strategy. This follows widespread layoffs, with over 300,000 departures—mostly incentivized—and hiring restrictions under executive orders like EO 14210 and the order on "Ensuring Continued Accountability in Federal Hiring." These mandates require strategic hiring committees and annual staffing plans aligned with administration priorities, tightening control over federal personnel.

Workforce reductions aim to cut federal spending and improve efficiency, but critics warn of hundreds of millions in added recruitment and training costs from turnover. Funding uncertainties persist, with nine fiscal 2026 appropriations bills pending and expiring on January 30, 2026, amid disputes over health premiums, unilateral fund withholding, and proposed agency cuts. This could lead to shutdowns, complicating the rollout. In a brief statement, an administration official emphasized that these changes support broader efficiency goals, such as reducing duplicative positions and low-value contractors.

Political and Legal Landscape

The overhaul enforces Trump's agenda for a leaner, politically responsive bureaucracy, citing "accountability to the president" as justification. It faces litigation, with a dozen injunctions already filed on bargaining rights, and bipartisan House pushback to reverse changes. Related executive actions include Merit Hiring Plan compliance and priority staffing for national security and immigration, reflecting a targeted approach to reshaping key agencies.

Federal employees stand to lose longstanding protections against political interference, risking the politicization of non-partisan roles and potential mass exits. Stakeholders include remaining workers facing hiring limits and performance overhauls, agencies undergoing reorganizations at Education, CFPB, and VA, and taxpayers promised efficiency gains versus service disruptions. Detractors, like the Partnership for Public Service, argue it prioritizes political control over performance, with no evidence that at-will status improves outcomes. Attempts to reach OPM for further comment were unsuccessful as of press time.

Originating from Trump's first-term Schedule F in 2020, which was revoked by Biden, this 2026 version expands on 2025 actions like mass layoffs and buyouts. Parallels exist in state-level at-will experiments, often bundled with broader reforms but linked more to partisan control than efficacy. In the short term, expect agency conversions, hiring freezes, potential shutdowns, and court battles in 2026, with continued workforce shrinkage via limited hiring and incentives. Long-term, experts predict a smaller civil service and easier firings for alignment with policy shifts, but higher turnover costs and litigation risks loom.

Correction: An earlier version misstated the number of pending appropriations bills; it is nine, not ten.