• President Trump confirms direct backchannel talks with Iran’s IRGC, but insists on a “white flag of surrender” and no nuclear weapon.
  • Washington signals no fixed timetable despite the 60-day ceasefire deadline expiring, adding to uncertainty.
  • Oman faces a stark warning over Strait of Hormuz, where shipping risks remain elevated.

A High-Stakes Gambit

President Trump on Thursday confirmed that the U.S. is engaged in direct backchannel talks with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a sharp escalation in the diplomatic track that emerged just as a 60-day ceasefire deadline quietly lapsed. Trump, speaking to reporters, framed the outreach as a final opportunity for Tehran, reiterating his core demand that Iran “cannot obtain a nuclear weapon.”

“They should raise the white flag of surrender,” Trump said, while adding that he is “not in a hurry” and has “no time schedule.” The contradictory signals — pressure and patience — underscore the delicate balance Washington is attempting, even as the threat of military action looms over the Strait of Hormuz.

Surrender or Else?

Trump’s language has drawn sharp reactions in Tehran, where officials publicly deny any breakthrough. “No decisive new deal is underway,” an Iranian source familiar with the talks said, speaking on condition of anonymity. Yet the backchannel, reportedly facilitated by regional intermediaries, suggests both sides are willing to probe for an off-ramp.

The president’s warning to Oman adds another layer of complexity. Muscat has historically played a mediating role in Gulf crises, but Trump’s admonition — “Oman should not interfere with U.S. actions” — signals that Washington is wary of any third-party efforts that might dilute its leverage. The warning comes as shipping routes through Hormuz remain perilous, with recent incidents prompting rerouting and higher insurance premiums.

A Fragile Window

With the ceasefire deadline now in the rearview mirror, the next steps hinge on Iran’s response. The U.S. has tied reopening Hormuz to verifiable commitments on the nuclear file, a linkage that Tehran has so far resisted. “This is a last-chance framing,” said a Gulf-based analyst, who asked not to be named. “Both sides are posturing, but the backchannel indicates that neither wants a full-blown conflict.”

For markets, the uncertainty is palpable. Oil prices have swung on every headline, and traders are bracing for potential supply disruptions. “The risk premium is back,” said a commodities strategist in Singapore. “Any sign of escalation could send Brent above $100.”

What’s Next?

In the short term, the key is whether Iran accepts terms tied to reopening the strait and curbing its nuclear program. The lack of a fixed timetable from Trump may be a calculated move, but it also leaves room for interpretation — and miscalculation. Longer term, even if diplomacy resumes, the conflicting public positions and persistent maritime risks suggest a prolonged period of elevated tension.

Efforts to reach the Iranian mission to the UN were unsuccessful. The White House declined to elaborate on the details of the backchannel.

This article was updated to reflect the ceasefire deadline and Trump’s subsequent remarks.