• Trump's State of the Union address warns Iran against rebuilding its nuclear program after U.S. strikes, demanding explicit assurances like "no nuclear weapon" amid ongoing talks set to resume Thursday.
  • Iran insists it seeks only peaceful nuclear technology while rejecting full enrichment abandonment, with its Foreign Minister affirming on X that "Iran will under no circumstances ever develop a nuclear weapon."
  • White House envoy Steve Witkoff warns Iran is "a week away" from bomb-grade material, heightening risks of renewed strikes or supply disruptions in volatile global energy markets.

U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, ongoing since March 2025, reached a tense point after Trump's Tuesday speech, where he accused Iran of restarting its program despite U.S. destruction of facilities and missile threats to Europe and soon the U.S. Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi responded on X, affirming "Iran will under no circumstances ever develop a nuclear weapon" but upholding rights to peaceful enrichment under the NPT, a key negotiation hurdle. Talks resume Thursday with U.S. demands for zero enrichment and threats of strikes; White House envoy Steve Witkoff warned Iran is "a week away" from bomb-grade material.

Trump's "maximum pressure" policy includes 2025 letters to Khamenei demanding deal or military action, rejected by Iran as "outrageous." U.S. insists on full program halt; Iran views enrichment as sovereign right, warning retaliation against U.S. regional bases if struck. Israeli officials note possible surviving enriched uranium post-strikes.

U.S. sanctions since March 2025 aim to cut Iran's oil exports to zero, pressuring its economy amid global energy market volatility from Middle East tensions. Heightened conflict risks could spike oil prices, affecting global inflation and U.S. consumers; recent U.S. armada deployment signals potential supply disruptions.

Short-term: Talks may fail over enrichment, risking imminent strikes per Chatham House's Sanam Vakil, who sees "war inevitable in days" absent Iranian concessions like temporary low-grade halt (already de facto post-strikes). Long-term: Regime change floated by Trump as ideal, but U.S. prioritizes diplomacy unless nuclear progress resumes; experts like Elliott Abrams predict Israeli/U.S. action if no deal.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the date of Trump's State of the Union address; it occurred on February 24, 2026.