- Trump suggests U.S. and Iran could jointly manage oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz if an agreement is reached, framing it as an option rather than unilateral takeover.
- The administration is actively considering policy tools, including potentially unsanctioning some Iranian oil and increasing Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, amid market stress from Middle East conflict.
- Markets face volatility as traders watch for shifts in enforcement, with implications for global crude prices and regional economies dependent on stable shipment routes.
Donald Trump’s latest comments have introduced a new twist into the high-stakes debate over Iran policy, with the former president proposing that the U.S. and Iran could jointly control oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for Middle East energy shipments—if the two sides reach an agreement. The remarks, which stop short of announcing a concrete policy, frame "taking control" as a potential option rather than an outright unilateral move, according to people familiar with the matter.
This comes as the Trump administration is actively weighing various "levers" related to Iran sanctions and energy supply, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent discussing options such as potentially unsanctioning some Iranian oil and referencing additional Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases. The discussions are unfolding against a backdrop of heightened Middle East conflict and oil-price pressure, creating market stress that has traders on edge. One source noted that the administration is considering adding volumes to existing SPR plans as a contingency measure.
Trump’s wording—"jointly controlled" rather than a takeover—represents a notable evolution from previous aggressive rhetoric, which has included pressure on buyers and threats tied to broader Iran policy. Bloomberg previously reported that such comments could "fray" the "maximum pressure" strategy, implying a possible shift from the hardline stance that demanded purchases "must stop, NOW!" If implemented, a joint control mechanism would mark a departure from straightforward sanctions enforcement toward an internationalized approach, though it remains contingent on a political bargain that has yet to materialize.
In the near term, the most immediate impact is likely volatility in oil markets, as any signal of softened enforcement or managed supply routing could swing prices. Energy traders are closely watching both U.S. policy direction and partner behavior, given that Iranian oil supply and how it is sanctioned directly drive global crude flows. Without a deal, the default path remains sanctions-enforcement plus responses from OPEC+ and other suppliers, but commentary in the broader coverage ecosystem points to the market’s capacity to offset shortfalls, depending on timing and spare capacity behavior.
Stakeholders affected by potential shifts include oil shippers and insurers, consumer nations exposed to price swings, and regional economies reliant on stable routes through Hormuz. Separately, reports note heightened Iran domestic unrest and the U.S. weighing escalation considerations amid turmoil—conditions that can raise perceived risk premiums in energy markets. Efforts to reach out to administration officials for further comment on the joint control proposal were not immediately successful.
Looking ahead, a durable outcome would require a verifiable political bargain, with sanctions relief traded for negotiated constraints on exports and flows. The "if an agreement is reached" condition highlights the uncertainty, and if no agreement materializes, the status quo of enforcement and supply adjustments is expected to persist. Related developments to monitor include further discussion of unsanctioning Iranian oil, increased SPR barrels to stabilize prices, and any linkage between U.S. coercive posture and Middle East security developments, which tend to re-price oil risk quickly. As one analyst put it, "This is all about managing flows in a volatile region—without a deal, the pressure could intensify, but with one, it might ease some market tensions."