• A February 2, 2026 phone call between US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi reviewed progress on a long-delayed Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA), with US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor urging followers to "stay tuned" for developments on social media platform X.
  • The conversation comes amid persistent expectations for finalizing the BTA soon, despite significant hurdles including US-imposed 50% tariffs on Indian exports since August 2025, linked to India's Russian crude purchases.
  • The proposed agreement, under negotiation since March 2025, aims to double bilateral trade from $191 billion to $500 billion by 2030, with India's Commerce Secretary recently stating the first tranche is "very near."

Efforts to finalize the US-India Bilateral Trade Agreement have hit a snag in recent months, but a high-level phone call this week suggests negotiations may be back on track. President Trump described it as an "honor" to speak with Prime Minister Modi, according to posts on Truth Social, with both leaders reviewing progress in bilateral relations and regional issues during their February 2 conversation.

The timing aligns with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar's visit to Washington on February 2-3 for meetings with Secretary Marco Rubio and a critical minerals ministerial, according to people familiar with the matter. This diplomatic overlap creates what one anonymous trade official called "a window for real movement" after what had been described as "chilled" relations between the economic partners.

Without a deal, Indian exporters would continue facing punishing US tariffs—a 25% reciprocal duty plus an additional 25% levy imposed last August—that have stalled progress despite multiple negotiation rounds. The near-collapse of talks in July 2025 marked a significant setback for what had been proposed during Modi's Washington visit in February 2025 as a cornerstone of economic cooperation.

"We're working through the remaining issues," said a source close to the negotiations who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of ongoing talks. "Both sides recognize the strategic importance of getting this right."

Trump expressed confidence in the relationship at Davos on January 21, calling Modi a "fantastic man and friend," while India's Commerce Secretary recently stated the first tranche of the agreement is "very near." The cryptic social media activity from Ambassador Gor—who posted about the call with the instruction to "stay tuned"—has fueled speculation among trade watchers that an announcement could be imminent.

Market observers note that India's recent trade deal with the European Union, which gained enhanced market access and mobility provisions, positions the country favorably in global negotiations. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer praised that agreement as a win, suggesting similar potential exists here despite the tariff complications.

Broader geopolitical factors continue to influence the negotiations, including India's oil import strategies. Trump recently noted that countries including India are eyeing Venezuelan oil following the January 3 capture of Nicolas Maduro, while tensions persist over India's continued Russian crude purchases that triggered the US tariffs in the first place.

As Jaishankar's meetings in Washington continue this week, stakeholders on both sides are watching for signals that could unlock what has become one of the most closely watched trade negotiations in the Indo-Pacific region. The "stay tuned" directive from Ambassador Gor may prove prescient if the diplomatic momentum translates into concrete progress where previous efforts have faltered.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the timing of the phone call; it occurred on February 2, 2026, not February 3.