• Trump signals one diplomatic opportunity for Iran while keeping military pressure high.
  • Conditions for avoiding US strikes: no nuclear weapons and halt to crackdown on protesters.
  • Talks in Oman described as productive, with a ‘framework’ for further negotiations.

President Donald Trump said Thursday that Iran is in “serious discussions” with the US over its nuclear program, but stressed that diplomacy has a single chance. “We’re going to give this one shot,” Trump told reporters, adding that he is “in no hurry” to resolve the standoff. The remarks come amid a major US military buildup in the Gulf and warnings that time is running out for a nuclear deal.

Trump has set clear conditions to avoid US military action: Iran must pursue no nuclear weapons and stop killing protesters, with over 6,300 deaths reported since unrest began in late December. Without a deal, the president has threatened to strike Iran “in one night” and warned that a mission could wrap up “very shortly.”

Negotiations mediated by Oman have advanced a “framework” for further talks, according to Iranian officials. Yet the window for a deal remains narrow. European allies, including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, have echoed that Iran’s time is running out for a diplomatic solution.

Strait of Hormuz in the Crosshairs

Any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz—a key chokepoint for global oil shipments—would sharply impact energy markets. Iran is expected to conduct live-fire naval exercises in the strait, raising the risk of miscalculation with US forces. “Without a deal, the company would be forced into bankruptcy” could apply to oil-dependent economies, analysts note, but the standoff also creates volatility in defense and energy sectors.

Human Rights as a Lever

Trump’s demand that Iran stop killing protesters has drawn attention to severe domestic repression. Human rights advocates see international focus as both leverage and risk: while it pressures Tehran, it could also justify a later military option. The administration has officially restored “maximum pressure” on Iran, denying it all paths to a nuclear weapon and countering its regional influence.

Attempts to reach Iran’s mission to the UN for comment were not immediately successful.

What’s Next

In the short term, if Iran meets conditions, talks could deepen toward a new framework, reducing immediate war risk. If it delays or rejects the framework, Trump has signaled escalating strikes within two to three weeks. Analysts broadly see Iran as betting the president prefers a quick diplomatic win over prolonged conflict. “The road is narrow for a durable agreement,” according to people familiar with the matter.