• President Trump expects oil prices to 'tumble' once the U.S.–Iran conflict ends, tying relief to a deal after the November midterms.
  • Markets have whipsawed on diplomatic signals and supply news, with Brent settling at $99.25 and WTI at $94.59 on September 22.
  • Analysts warn a sustained decline is far from assured given ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi export infrastructure.

Trump Ties Oil Relief to Post-Election Iran Deal

President Trump said oil prices will “tumble” once the conflict with Iran concludes, arguing that increased crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz under U.S. military protection will bring relief. His comments, made in late September, linked the timing to a potential deal shortly after the November midterm elections. The administration also described a three-hour meeting with Iranian representatives on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly as constructive, fueling hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough.

Markets reacted swiftly to the diplomatic signals. On September 22, Brent settled at $99.25 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $94.59, each down about 1% for the day. Prices had fallen more than 4% for the week but remained over 9% higher for the month. The session was volatile: Brent briefly slipped below $98 before Trump’s U.N. remarks, then rose when investors interpreted his comments as implying no deal before November 3, before weakening again on news of the talks.

Supply Fears Ease Slightly, but Risks Persist

A potential restart of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline has also tempered immediate supply concerns. The line, damaged in a September 10 drone attack, is strategically vital because it can transport Saudi crude to the Red Sea, reducing reliance on the Strait of Hormuz. Before the conflict, roughly 20% of global petroleum moved through the strait. Shipping traffic in the area has been severely constrained, at times not exceeding 20 vessels per day, according to MarineTraffic data cited by NBC.

The economic toll is mounting. The national average gasoline price reached $4.47 per gallon on September 22, about 50% above the level at the start of the war. Diesel averaged a record $6.52 per gallon, up 82% year to date, raising costs for trucking, airlines, agriculture, and logistics. Higher fuel costs are feeding into inflation and keeping borrowing costs elevated, though the 10-year Treasury yield fell to as low as 4.92% on September 22 as oil eased. Equities have been relatively resilient: the S&P 500 closed roughly flat and the Nasdaq rose 0.4% that day.

Political and Geopolitical Undercurrents

The price surge stems from the prolonged U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which began on February 28 and has periodically constricted tanker traffic through Hormuz. Trump has explicitly connected the anticipated oil-price decline to the midterms, saying earlier in September that prices likely would not fall until after the election and portraying Iran as waiting to influence the political outcome. That framing makes the issue both a national-security matter and a domestic cost-of-living concern for an administration under pressure over fuel prices and inflation.

Policy measures already in play include U.S. military escorts for oil shipments, drawdowns from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve—which AP reported fell below 300 million barrels in early August, more than 100 million barrels below its level at the start of 2026—and Saudi efforts to restore alternate export routes through the East-West pipeline and the Red Sea port of Yanbu.

Outlook Hinges on Three Conditions

For oil to decline meaningfully, three conditions must align: a credible U.S.–Iran ceasefire or agreement, normalized Hormuz traffic without new security incidents, and a reliable return of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline capacity. Even then, analysts caution that prices may not fall below pre-conflict levels as Trump has suggested. NBC cited analysts warning that if the war persists and more infrastructure is damaged, oil could rise to $120–$150 per barrel.

The longer-term picture splits into two paths. De-escalation would lower war-risk premiums, improve tanker traffic, restore Saudi routing capacity, ease fuel inflation, and offer relief to consumers and transport-heavy industries. Escalation—renewed attacks on pipelines, ports, tankers, or refining assets—could quickly reverse recent declines, worsen global inflation, and deepen pressure on central banks, airlines, freight operators, and consumers.

The most important near-term indicators are verified progress in U.S.–Iran negotiations, actual Hormuz shipping volumes, the operational status of Saudi export infrastructure, and whether military incidents continue to threaten commercial tanker traffic.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the date of the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran. It began on February 28.