- Former President Donald Trump claims gasoline prices will drop once Iran ceases its provocations.
- U.S. gasoline prices have risen amid heightened Middle East tensions, with the national average climbing to $3.80 per gallon, up 8% in the past month.
- Analysts warn that price relief is contingent on de-escalation and may not materialize quickly even if tensions subside.
Trump’s Promise Amid Oil Volatility
Donald Trump took to social media on Thursday to assert that gasoline prices will fall "as soon as Iran stops its actions," doubling down on a narrative that ties U.S. security policy to consumer relief. The remarks come as Brent crude hovers near $87 a barrel, driven by fears of supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for about 20% of global oil shipments.
“Prices will come down. They always do when we get tough,” Trump said, without elaborating on the mechanism. His statement follows a series of U.S. airstrikes targeting Iranian-backed militia groups in Iraq and Syria, escalating a conflict that has already rattled energy markets.
Realities at the Pump
For American drivers, the near-term outlook is less rosy. The national average gasoline price hit $3.80 a gallon on Wednesday, according to AAA, up from $3.52 a month ago. In California, prices have surged past $5.20. The rise reflects not just crude costs but also refinery maintenance season and low inventories—factors that don’t respond quickly to geopolitical shifts.
“Even if Iran blinks, it could take weeks for prices to ease,” said a market analyst at a Houston-based energy consultancy. “Refineries aren’t going to cut margins overnight just because a tweet says so.”
Skepticism from Economists
Economic experts point to historical patterns. During the 2019 drone attack on Saudi Aramco (AR)’s Abqaiq facility, prices spiked 15% in a day but normalized within weeks after supply was restored. The current situation is more diffuse, with risks ranging from Houthi attacks in the Red Sea to potential Iranian closure of the Strait.
“Trump’s confidence is typical, but the market is pricing in a risk premium that could persist,” said a former Federal Reserve economist. “Unless there is a clear de-escalatory signal, traders will stay nervous.”
Iranian officials have not responded to Trump’s remarks. Efforts to reach the Iranian mission to the UN were unsuccessful.