• Former President Trump claims Iran agreed to a U.S. framework before abruptly reversing course, highlighting ongoing volatility in diplomatic efforts.
  • The back-and-forth comes amid indirect talks mediated by regional powers, with sanctions relief and nuclear curbs at the center of negotiations.
  • Energy markets remain sensitive to developments, as any sign of progress or collapse can sway crude oil prices.

A Familiar Pattern of Reversal

Former President Donald Trump on Thursday accused Iran of agreeing to a set of terms with the United States, only to then reverse its position. "Iran agreed, then they changed their minds," Trump said during a rally in Michigan, without specifying the nature of the alleged agreement. The assertion echoes a recurring dynamic in U.S.-Iran diplomacy, where public statements of progress are often followed by backtracking or new demands.

According to people familiar with the matter, indirect talks mediated by Oman and Qatar have focused on a limited deal to de-escalate tensions. The proposed framework would reportedly involve Iran capping its uranium enrichment at 60% purity in exchange for the unfreezing of $6 billion in Iraqi oil revenue. However, Tehran has signaled that any agreement must include broader sanctions relief, a condition Washington has so far rejected.

Market and Geopolitical Ripples

The latest exchange has injected fresh uncertainty into oil markets. Brent crude futures edged up 0.8% to $82.45 a barrel on Friday, as traders weighed the risk of renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's oil exports have already risen to an estimated 1.5 million barrels per day in recent months, partly due to lax enforcement of sanctions. A diplomatic breakdown could prompt tighter U.S. enforcement, squeezing supply.

Representatives for the State Department and Iran's mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to requests for comment. A senior administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the U.S. remains "open to diplomacy but will not accept delays or bad-faith negotiations."

Domestic and Regional Reactions

Trump's comments come as the Biden administration faces pressure from both hawks and doves on Iran policy. Republican lawmakers have criticized any concessions, while some Democrats urge a return to the 2015 nuclear deal framework. In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Iran is "playing for time" to advance its nuclear program.

Meanwhile, Gulf states have watched the roller coaster with caution, wary of being drawn into a conflict. Saudi Arabia has pursued its own dialogue with Tehran, but progress has been slow.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the percentage of uranium enrichment mentioned in the proposed deal. It is 60%, not 20%.