• President Donald Trump asserted that some countries will continue purchasing US crude even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens fully, highlighting a shift in global energy flows amid heightened Middle East tensions.
  • The remarks come as US oil exports surge to Asia, with analysts noting a structural rebalancing of supply chains away from reliance on the Hormuz chokepoint.
  • Market observers expect near-term price volatility but see potential for US export infrastructure to gain lasting market share.

‘They’ll Still Buy’

Speaking to reporters on Thursday, Trump said that nations that have turned to American barrels during the Hormuz disruption will not entirely revert to their previous suppliers. “Some will keep buying our oil even after the strait opens,” he said, without providing specifics. The comment underscores the White House’s push to position the US as a reliable alternative to Middle East crude in an era of geopolitical uncertainty.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil passes, has been intermittently disrupted by regional hostilities, sending spot prices into short-term gyrations and forcing refiners in Asia and Europe to seek alternative cargoes. US Gulf Coast exports have jumped to fill the gap, with the Energy Information Administration reporting a 12% month-over-month increase in crude shipments to Asia in the latest reporting period.

A Structural Shift?

Industry executives and analysts are split on whether the pivot is temporary or marks a deeper reconfiguration of trade routes. “There’s a window here for US producers to lock in long-term offtake agreements,” said a senior trader at a major Houston-based export terminal, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to comment publicly. Still, he cautioned that without more pipeline capacity and export dock upgrades, the surge could prove fleeting.

On the other hand, some OPEC+ members have signaled they could cut prices to regain market share once Hormuz fully reopens, potentially eroding the US advantage. “The price war risk is real,” noted a research note from a leading energy consultancy, pointing to recent signals from Riyadh about flexible pricing to Asian buyers.

Broader Implications

Trump’s rhetoric fits his broader energy-dominance narrative and comes as his administration urges allies to shoulder more of the burden for maritime security. The US Navy has led patrols in the region, but officials have repeatedly called on European and Asian partners to contribute more assets. The push for allied burden-sharing is unlikely to abate even after tensions ease, diplomats say.

In financial markets, crude futures have been volatile, with the front-month contract settling at $78.42 a barrel on Thursday, down 1.3% from the prior session but still elevated relative to pre-crisis levels. Gasoline futures also pulled back, though remaining near seven-month highs. Refiners’ margins, particularly on the US Gulf Coast, have widened as lighter crude flows rise.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the percentage of oil that passes through Hormuz; it is 20%, not 25%. The error has been corrected.