• President Trump says the key driver of the diesel shortage is refinery damage in Russia, not the Middle East, as the White House weighs a diesel export ban that could lower diesel but raise gasoline prices.
  • The administration argues crude flows through Hormuz have improved—but diesel supply remains fragile due to Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries and attacks on tankers near the strait.
  • G7 nations agree to release 100 million barrels of oil and fuel products, including a front-loaded diesel release within 20 days, to temper the acute squeeze.

Trump Points to Russia, Not Hormuz

President Donald Trump on Tuesday shifted the explanation for elevated U.S. fuel costs away from the Strait of Hormuz disruption and toward the Russia-Ukraine war, arguing that Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refining capacity are the primary cause of the global diesel shortage.

“This isn’t done by the Middle East … this is done by what’s happening with Russia and Ukraine,” Trump said during a press briefing, according to people familiar with the matter. The remarks mark a notable change in the administration’s framing, which had initially cited Iran-linked tensions around the Strait of Hormuz as a key driver of energy market volatility earlier this year.

Ukrainian long-range drone strikes have reduced Russian fuel output and helped trigger fuel shortages inside Russia, according to Reuters. While the administration has argued that crude flows through Hormuz have improved—Kpler data cited by CBS showed Middle East oil exports excluding Iran rose above prewar levels last week, with September exports reaching at least 16.5 million barrels per day, 40% of which was routed around Hormuz via Saudi and UAE pipelines and alternative shipping routes—the supply picture remains fragile. Projectiles have struck multiple tankers near or in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran’s conditions for reopening the waterway remain unresolved.

The Diesel Dilemma

The White House has considered a diesel export ban aimed at retaining more fuel for domestic users, but Trump signaled caution on September 30, saying such a step could lower diesel prices while increasing gasoline prices and causing broader market consequences. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said U.S. refiners are running at record highs, though supplies remain tight because of disruptions involving Russia, the Middle East, and China.

The distinction between crude oil and refined products matters. More crude getting through Hormuz can ease oil-market fears, but it does not immediately fix shortages of diesel and gasoline, which depend on refinery output, configuration, shipping, inventories, and product trade flows. Russia has been a significant fuel exporter; lower output tightens regional and global balances. Meanwhile, the route historically carries roughly one-fifth of global petroleum supplies, so attacks and routing changes retain a risk premium.

The G7 stock release illustrates that the problem is international rather than purely American. G7 countries have agreed to coordinate a release of 100 million barrels of oil and fuel products over four months, including a front-loaded diesel release within 20 days, intended to temper the acute diesel squeeze. The release could relieve inventories and prices more quickly than building new refining capacity, but it is a finite emergency measure.

Political and Economic Stakes

The macroeconomic stakes are substantial. Diesel is embedded in freight, rail, farm machinery, construction, industrial activity, and shipping. Higher diesel costs can therefore feed into grocery, retail, and manufacturing prices even if households primarily notice gasoline at the pump. Reuters noted that U.S. diesel prices had surpassed $6 per gallon in mid-September, a record threshold according to GasBuddy.

This is politically sensitive ahead of U.S. midterm elections. Rising fuel prices are a visible affordability issue, and several states have responded with fuel-tax relief or targeted measures for groups such as farmers, loggers, and diesel users; Ohio enacted a 90-day gas-tax holiday. The administration’s framing has shifted in response to a complicated supply shock that began with U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran in late February, which disrupted Gulf shipping and pushed energy prices higher. Iran continues to seek leverage over transit through Hormuz, while the U.S. has countered with pressure on Iranian ports and military measures.

Ukraine considers Russian refineries legitimate military targets because Russia attacks Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Trump, however, has urged President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to stop striking Russian diesel facilities on the grounds that the resulting shortage is “hurting the world.” The policy tradeoff is unusually stark: supporting Ukraine’s ability to impair Russia’s war-supporting energy system can conflict with the near-term objective of keeping global diesel supplies ample and consumer energy prices lower.

Stakeholders and Outlook

Consumers are directly exposed to gasoline and diesel inflation, which reduces household purchasing power, with the burden higher for rural households and commuters with limited alternatives to driving. Truckers, farmers, and logistics firms are more exposed to diesel than most households, and their higher costs can flow into food, delivery, and construction prices. U.S. refiners and exporters generally benefit from access to international markets, but an export ban could reduce margins, lead refiners to adjust production, and—according to industry warnings cited by CNBC—risk lower overall refinery output and higher domestic prices for some fuels.

European and Asian importers face diesel shortages and emergency stock releases, underscoring their exposure to both Russian product losses and Middle East shipping instability. Ukraine’s requests to spare Russian refinery infrastructure would be contentious because Kyiv views those targets as part of Russia’s military and economic capacity. Gulf producers and shippers have helped restore export volumes via alternative pipeline and shipping routes, but attacks on vessels mean transportation and insurance risks remain elevated.

The most plausible near-term outcome is continued volatility rather than a clean reversal in fuel prices. The G7 stock release, high U.S. refinery runs, seasonal slowing in driving demand, and recovering Gulf export volumes could put downward pressure on prices. Energy Secretary Wright said he expects meaningful declines in coming weeks. However, renewed attacks on shipping, a breakdown in U.S.–Iran diplomacy, further Russian refinery damage, or a U.S. diesel-export restriction could reverse that relief quickly.

Longer-lasting price relief would likely require safer and more predictable transit through Hormuz and the Red Sea, restoration or replacement of Russian refinery output, continued high refinery utilization and adequate inventories in the U.S. and allied markets, and avoidance of policy actions that solve one fuel shortage while worsening another. The key takeaway is that Trump’s comment does not mean Hormuz no longer matters. Rather, it reflects that the immediate pressure in diesel markets increasingly appears tied to a broader refined-product disruption centered on Russian refinery losses, while Hormuz remains a major geopolitical and shipping-risk factor for oil and fuel markets overall.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the date of Trump’s remarks. They were made on Tuesday, not September 30.