• Trump says Iran negotiations could extend beyond or fall short of 60 days, signaling a flexible approach.
  • Talks progress amid cautious optimism, with no final agreement yet, impacting energy markets and regional risk.
  • The U.S. aims for verifiable nuclear constraints, while Iran seeks calibrated sanctions relief and security guarantees.

Shifting Deadlines

Former President Donald Trump indicated that ongoing talks with Iran could last longer or shorter than 60 days, according to people familiar with the matter. The remarks, made in a recent conversation with advisors, suggest the administration is not wedded to a rigid timeline, reflecting both a willingness to continue diplomacy and political caution.

"We're making progress, but it could go longer or shorter," Trump said, according to a person briefed on the discussion. "It's about getting the right deal."

Negotiation Dynamics

The talks, mediated by regional actors, have shown signs of cautious progress but remain mired in core disputes over enrichment limits, stockpiles, and sanctions relief. Iran has pressed for broad relief and long-term security guarantees, while U.S. negotiators insist on verifiable constraints.

"We have a balance to strike," said a senior administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity. "The timeline is less important than the substance."

Attempts to reach the Iranian mission to the United Nations for comment were unsuccessful.

Market Implications

The uncertainty over timing is rippling through energy markets. Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday, with Brent crude rising 0.7% to $72.50 a barrel, as traders weighed the potential for a delayed deal that could keep Iranian barrels offline.

"Every day without a deal adds a risk premium," said an analyst at a London-based consultancy. "If talks drag on, we could see sustained volatility."

Context

Past rounds of Iran nuclear negotiations have repeatedly missed deadlines, with interim understandings often bridging gaps but failing to produce a permanent accord. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was an exception, though it collapsed after the U.S. withdrawal in 2018.

This time, both sides are wary of repeating history. "There's a recognition that rushing could backfire," said a former diplomat familiar with the process.

Stakeholder Impact

For global energy consumers, a protracted path means continued price uncertainty. For Iran's economy, sanctions relief remains elusive, while U.S. allies in the region monitor the talks with concern over Iran's regional activities.

Domestic politics in both countries add another layer. In the U.S., hardliners have criticized any concessions, while in Iran, the government faces pressure to deliver tangible economic benefits from negotiations.

Outlook

Short-term, analysts expect iterative rounds focusing on enrichment levels, inspections, and sanctions. A breakthrough could hinge on credible enforcement mechanisms and political will on both sides. "Without a deal, the risk of escalation rises," cautioned a Middle East analyst.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the oil price movement. It has been corrected.