- The U.S. is expected to ramp up sanctions on Russia’s oil majors, including Rosneft and Lukoil, to further choke Moscow’s war funding.
- Secondary sanctions risks are increasing for third-country entities facilitating Russian energy trade, pressuring global banks and shippers.
- Markets brace for volatility as the move could disrupt oil supply chains and fuel price swings.
Fresh Sanctions Wave Looms
Former President Donald Trump announced Wednesday that the U.S. will soon be able to impose increased sanctions on Russia, signaling a potential escalation in financial pressure on Moscow. The statement, made during a brief press conference, did not specify exact targets, but people familiar with the matter indicated that the new measures would focus on Russia’s energy sector and financial infrastructure.
“We’re going to be able to do a lot more on sanctions, and soon,” Trump said. “They’ve been hurting, but not enough.” The remark comes amid ongoing bipartisan support in Congress for tightening the screws on Russia’s economy, particularly its oil and gas revenues.
Targeting Rosneft and Lukoil
According to two administration officials, the upcoming sanctions package is expected to directly target Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia’s two largest oil producers. The move would mark a significant escalation, as previous U.S. sanctions have largely avoided designating the companies themselves, focusing instead on subsidiaries and trading networks.
“This is a serious step,” said a senior Treasury official, speaking on condition of anonymity. “If implemented, it would severely restrict their access to dollar clearing and international finance, potentially cutting off a major source of revenue for the Kremlin.”
Industry analysts say the impact could ripple through global energy markets. “Rosneft alone accounts for about 40% of Russia’s oil output,” noted energy consultant Maria Petrova. “Blocking its access to Western financial systems would likely disrupt exports and create supply uncertainty.”
Secondary Sanctions Risk Intensifies
Alongside direct designations, the U.S. is preparing to expand secondary sanctions targeting third-country banks, shipping companies, and traders that facilitate Russian crude and product sales. The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has already increased enforcement actions, and officials say the new framework will lower the threshold for penalties.
“Any bank handling transactions for sanctioned Russian entities should be on high alert,” said a compliance lawyer at a global law firm. “We’re advising clients to review all Russia-linked business lines immediately.”
European and Asian buyers are already scrambling to secure alternative supplies, while freight rates for non-sanctioned tankers have spiked in recent days. One Geneva-based trader said, “Everyone is trying to figure out if they can still buy Russian crude without getting caught up. The risk premium is skyrocketing.”
Market and Geopolitical Fallout
The announcement rattled oil markets, with Brent crude rising over 2% to $78.50 a barrel on Thursday. Analysts at Goldman Sachs warned that a full-blown sanctions regime on Russian oil majors could push prices above $85 in the short term, though they noted that OPEC+ spare capacity could offset some disruption.
“The U.S. is clearly betting that the economic pain will force a change in Russia’s calculations,” said former State Department official James Miller. “But there’s always the risk of unintended consequences—higher energy costs for allies, or even a Russian retaliation that destabilizes global markets further.”
For now, European officials have offered cautious support, though some have privately expressed concern about energy price spikes heading into winter. The European Commission said it is monitoring the situation and stands ready to coordinate with Washington.
What’s Next?
The exact timeline for the new sanctions remains unclear. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to brief lawmakers on the details next week, sources said. A formal announcement could come as early as late June, but administration officials cautioned that internal deliberations are still ongoing.
Correction: An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated that Lukoil had already been sanctioned. The company has not yet been formally designated.