• Trump confirms he will "probably" meet with Ukraine's Zelenskyy at the NATO summit.
  • The former president is pushing for NATO members to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP, a move resisted by some allies.
  • Ukraine's NATO prospects remain uncertain as Russia escalates attacks and demands Kyiv abandon Western ties.

A High-Stakes Encounter at NATO

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated he will likely meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during this week's NATO summit, where alliance contributions and Ukraine's security future top the agenda. The meeting, if it occurs, would come as Trump pressures NATO members to dramatically boost defense spending—a proposal already facing pushback from countries like Spain.

"We're probably going to meet," Trump said when asked about Zelenskyy, though details remain unclear. The Ukrainian leader is seeking reassurances on continued U.S. military support amid Russia's intensified attacks. However, people familiar with summit planning note Ukraine's role this year appears diminished compared to previous gatherings where Zelenskyy took center stage.

Defense Spending Debate Intensifies

Trump's call for NATO members to commit at least 5% of GDP to defense—more than double the current 2% guideline—has sparked heated discussions behind closed doors. While some Eastern European allies facing direct Russian threats appear receptive, others argue such targets could strain national budgets. Spain, for instance, has reportedly committed to just 2.1%.

The proposal comes as Trump continues questioning Ukraine's NATO membership prospects, suggesting instead that Kyiv could provide rare earth minerals to the U.S. in exchange for support. "They have things we need," Trump said recently, referencing Ukraine's mineral resources. This transactional approach has raised eyebrows among European diplomats who view alliance expansion as a strategic rather than commercial decision.

Russia Looms Over Talks

As leaders gather, Russian forces have stepped up missile strikes across Ukraine, including a devastating attack on a children's hospital in Kyiv. Moscow has dismissed Trump's earlier ceasefire calls, instead demanding Ukraine renounce Western weapons and any NATO aspirations—conditions Kyiv rejects outright.

Analysts suggest the summit may produce incremental support pledges but little clarity on Ukraine's alliance pathway. "This feels like a holding pattern," said one European official involved in preparations, speaking on condition of anonymity. "Everyone's waiting to see how the U.S. election shakes out."

Editor's Note: This article was updated to clarify Spain's defense spending commitment figures.