• Trump suggests Putin is motivated to reach a deal on Ukraine during upcoming Alaska summit.
  • European leaders voice cautious support but stress Ukraine's territorial integrity must be upheld.
  • Energy markets remain volatile as drone strikes continue targeting Russian infrastructure.

Diplomatic Momentum or Risky Bilateralism?

Donald Trump struck an unexpectedly optimistic tone about prospects for ending the Ukraine war during a Fox News radio interview, stating he believes Vladimir Putin "wants to get it done." The remarks come days before the first U.S.-Russia presidential summit since 2021, scheduled for Alaska amid heightened geopolitical tensions.

European capitals reacted warily to the impending bilateral talks. While German Chancellor Friedrich Merz described recent discussions with Trump as "constructive," multiple NATO allies privately expressed concerns about any agreement that might sideline Ukrainian interests. "There can be no territorial concessions imposed by force," a French official said, echoing President Macron's public statements.

The Sanctions Calculus

Trump's sanctions ultimatum appears to have shifted Moscow's position, according to two people briefed on pre-summit negotiations. Russia has reportedly narrowed its territorial demands to focus primarily on Donetsk rather than four Ukrainian regions, though U.S. officials caution these concessions remain fluid. The Kremlin hasn't commented on the claims.

Market analysts note continued volatility in energy futures following Ukraine's drone strikes on Russian oil facilities, including yesterday's attack on the Volgograd refinery. Brent crude edged up 1.2% in early London trading as traders priced in persistent supply risks.

The Zelenskyy Factor

Ukrainian officials have grown increasingly vocal about their exclusion from the summit process. "No decision about Ukraine should be made without Ukraine," Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told reporters in Kyiv, where President Zelenskyy convened an emergency security council meeting. European diplomats say they're preparing contingency plans should the summit produce what one called "a destabilizing quick fix."

[Updates: This article was revised to clarify the timing of the last U.S.-Russia presidential summit.]