• President Trump said the U.S. is close to a fertilizer deal with Canada, but no formal agreement has been confirmed.
  • The talks are part of broader trade negotiations that include agricultural market access and tariff relief.
  • Canada supplies over 85% of U.S. potash, making any deal highly sensitive for farmers and fertilizer producers.

A Deal in the Making?

President Donald Trump said the United States is close to a deal with Canada on fertilizer, according to a Fox News (NASDAQ:FOXA) interview, but the details remain scarce and no formal agreement has been announced. The headline, which surfaced Monday, signals a potential easing of trade tensions over a critical agricultural input, but it stops short of confirming a finalized pact.

Speaking to reporters over the weekend, Trump described the “concept” of a deal that would benefit American farmers, while Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said negotiators would work toward an agreement “in the coming weeks.” The two leaders spoke on November 1, and while both characterized the talks as constructive, Carney emphasized that an outline still requires significant negotiation.

The broader discussions between Washington and Ottawa cover agricultural market access, relief from U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and automobiles, and potentially the Keystone XL pipeline, according to people familiar with the matter. Fertilizer, specifically potash, has emerged as a key sticking point after Trump threatened in September to source cheaper potash from Belarus. He later said the U.S. would continue buying Canadian potash but wanted a lower price.

The Potash Factor

Canada is the world’s largest producer of potash, a potassium-rich fertilizer, and supplies more than 85% of U.S. imports, according to industry data. Saskatchewan’s mines benefit from established rail links to the U.S. Midwest, making Canadian supply difficult to replace quickly or cheaply. That dependence gives Canada leverage in the talks, even as U.S. farmers press for lower costs.

“What institutional investors like us are really focused on is regulatory stability,” said Andrea Valeri, Blackstone (NYSE:BX)’s country chairman for Italy, at a recent conference. While his comments referred to Italy, the sentiment echoes the broader need for predictability in trade relationships that affect cross-border investments.

Analysts caution that a presidential announcement does not automatically translate into lower fertilizer prices for farmers. The U.S. government does not purchase potash in bulk or set its price; private companies import it and sell it to farmers. Any deal would need to specify whether it involves tariff relief, commercial discounts, supply commitments, or investment incentives—each with different implications.

Political and Economic Stakes

The timing is notable: the news comes just before the November 3 midterm elections, with farmers facing elevated input costs. The administration has announced approximately $15 billion in agriculture-related initiatives in recent weeks, including $573 million for fertilizer-manufacturing projects, according to the Associated Press. Fertilizer affordability is therefore part of a wider farm-support agenda.

For Canadian producers, a deal could improve certainty for Saskatchewan’s potash industry and its transport network. However, demands for lower prices raise questions about how any savings would be divided between producers, distributors, and farmers. Canadian industry representatives have emphasized supply reliability rather than price alone.

The Belarus alternative adds a geopolitical complication. September reporting identified sanctions connected to Belarus’s support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, limited uncommitted supply, and difficult transport logistics. Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe criticized the proposal as supporting Russian aggression. These constraints weaken the notion that Belarus could readily replace Canada.

What to Watch

The most important near-term issue is whether both governments publish matching terms. Carney’s “coming weeks” timeline is more cautious than an implication that a deal is already complete. Three details would determine the practical impact: whether the agreement covers potash specifically or includes nitrogen and phosphate; whether it changes tariffs, secures price concessions, guarantees volumes, or simply reaffirms existing trade; and when provisions take effect and how savings are passed through to farmers.

Nutrien (NYSE:NTR), the world’s largest potash producer, is a key company to watch. The Saskatoon-based firm raised the lower end of its 2026 potash sales-volume forecast to 14.2 million tonnes, retaining an upper end of 14.8 million tonnes. Its second-quarter sales rose 4% to US$10.81 billion, though adjusted earnings fell short of analyst expectations as lower potash and nitrogen volumes offset stronger prices. A lower selling price could pressure margins, while more predictable trade and stronger farmer demand could help volumes.

Efforts to reach the White House and Canada’s trade ministry for comment were not immediately successful.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the timing of the November 1 call between Trump and Carney. It took place on November 1, not November 2.