• Former President Donald Trump has publicly emphasized the dangers of nuclear escalation and signaled willingness to engage Russia in new arms control talks.
  • The New START treaty, which caps U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals, is set to expire in February 2026, creating urgency for negotiations.
  • Trump's approach includes potential postwar security guarantees for Ukraine and has sparked debate among arms control experts about feasibility and timing.

Renewed Focus on Nuclear Risk

Donald Trump has reiterated that he hopes nuclear weapons will never be used, emphasizing the urgency of arms control talks amid growing concerns about nuclear escalation. The statements come as the United States attempts to engage Russia, and potentially China, in new negotiations before the New START treaty expires in February 2026.

During an August 2025 summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump raised nuclear arms control, noting that both nations share restrictions under the existing treaty. He publicly signaled willingness to work on a new agreement, though comprehensive talks may wait until the Ukraine war concludes, according to people familiar with the administration's thinking.

Complicated Negotiating Landscape

The path forward faces significant hurdles. Russia strongly opposes any external military presence in Ukraine, complicating potential security arrangements and peace talks. Meanwhile, Trump has indicated a U.S. willingness to guarantee Ukraine's security through military aid—potentially including air support but not troop deployment—as part of larger postwar settlement discussions.

In high-profile speeches, including at the United Nations General Assembly, Trump warned of devastating global consequences should nuclear weapons be used. "If America nukes [the] world, there will be no UN," he stated bluntly, underscoring the catastrophic potential of nuclear conflict.

Market and Strategic Implications

The collapse of prior arms control agreements and Russia's suspension of New START inspections have raised concerns about the erosion of nuclear risk reduction regimes. Large-scale U.S. military assistance to Ukraine—totaling approximately $90 billion in arms purchases—and shifting U.S.-Russia relations continue to impact global defense markets and investor sentiment in security-linked sectors.

Any escalation or renewed arms race could have significant repercussions for global financial markets, supply chains, and economic stability. Defense analysts note that failure to renew or replace the New START treaty could destabilize the global nuclear order, while a successful multilateral accord would represent a major achievement for nonproliferation efforts.

Expert Skepticism and Historical Context

Trump's nuclear remarks and arms control initiatives are provoking significant debate among arms control advocates and policy experts. Many question the credibility, timing, and enforceability of new treaties given current geopolitical tensions. The United States has not conducted a nuclear weapons test in 33 years, maintaining commitment to the global non-testing norm, though some figures in Trump's circle have called for resumption of testing.

There are currently no indications of U.S. plans to resume nuclear testing, according to administration officials who spoke on condition of anonymity. However, the debate on ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty has been revived by arms control advocates in the context of Trump's comments.

Efforts to reach representatives from the State Department and National Security Council for additional comment were unsuccessful. The White House press office declined to provide further details on the timing or scope of potential arms control negotiations.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the total amount of U.S. military assistance to Ukraine. The figure is approximately $90 billion in arms purchases.