• Trump criticizes NATO allies for not assisting in securing the Strait of Hormuz, calling it a "very foolish mistake" that could doom the alliance's future.
  • Iran's blockade of the strait disrupts 20% of global oil and gas flows, spiking prices and hitting Europe and China hardest.
  • The US-Israel military campaign against Iran enters day 17, with strikes targeting thousands of sites including senior leaders, amid unclear war goals.

President Donald Trump has escalated pressure on NATO allies, accusing them of making a "very foolish mistake" by not helping the US secure the Strait of Hormuz as Iran's blockade enters its third week. The strait, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies, has seen flows disrupted by 20%, sending oil prices soaring and amplifying inflation risks in economies reliant on Persian Gulf imports.

According to people familiar with the matter, Trump has demanded naval escorts from NATO to police the waterway, warning of a "very bad future" for the alliance without a response. This comes as the US-Israel military campaign against Iran, launched on February 28 in response to perceived nuclear threats, continues with strikes on thousands of targets, including an early attack that hit Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran has reported that senior leader Ali Larijani was killed in a recent strike, though details remain unconfirmed.

Efforts to coordinate a response have hit a snag, with allies resisting deeper involvement due to Trump's earlier dismissal of aid offers and unclear US objectives. The UK and Ukraine had previously offered assistance, but Trump rejected these, insisting the US has already "won" the conflict. Talks with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer are ongoing, and a planned summit with China's Xi Jinping may be delayed amid the tensions.

Without a deal to reopen the strait, global shipping faces severe disruptions, with stakeholders like oil importers and shipping firms grappling with immediate losses. Canada has pledged to ramp up oil production to ease shortages, but analysts caution this won't provide quick price relief. In Europe and China, where reliance on Persian Gulf supplies is higher, consumers are feeling the pinch from soaring fuel costs, sparking public debates on energy security.

Trump's rhetoric echoes his long-standing critiques of NATO spending, but now focuses on operational support. At a recent NATO summit, discussions on increasing defense budgets to 5% of GDP have been overshadowed by the Hormuz crisis. Some experts suggest allies may send limited naval aid to avert a rift, but prolonged blockade risks pushing oil above $100 per barrel, potentially triggering a recession.

In the short term, the focus is on whether NATO can mount a "team effort" to secure the strait, as Trump has called for. However, mixed messaging from the US and lack of defined war goals have drawn public criticism, complicating diplomatic efforts. The historical context includes past Hormuz threats, such as the 2019 tanker attacks, but this blockade represents a more severe escalation.

Looking ahead, the outlook remains uncertain. If the blockade persists, it could fuel regime change in Iran or escalate proxy wars in the region. For now, markets are watching for any signs of a breakthrough, as the economic fallout spreads beyond the immediate conflict zone. Attempts to reach NATO officials for comment were unsuccessful at press time.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the duration of the blockade; it has been ongoing for 17 days as of mid-March 2026.