• Trump threatens to target Iran's Kharg Island oil facilities if shipping disruptions continue, despite initially sparing them in recent strikes.
  • Iran responds with missile and drone attacks on Gulf states, nearly halting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and pushing Brent crude near $105 a barrel.
  • The conflict enters its third week with significant humanitarian toll, displacing millions and killing over 1,200, as international response remains fragmented.

Trump has issued a stark warning that the U.S. could still strike oil infrastructure on Kharg Island, Iran's main crude export hub, if Tehran continues to interfere with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This comes despite the U.S. deliberately avoiding those facilities during Friday's military strikes, which targeted over 90 sites on the island. "Should Iran, or anyone else, do anything to interfere with the Free and Safe Passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider this decision," Trump stated, according to people familiar with the matter.

Iran has responded aggressively, launching missile and drone attacks on Gulf states including Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates over the weekend. The country's joint military command threatened to retaliate against U.S.-linked "oil, economic and energy infrastructures" in the region if its own facilities are targeted. These developments have nearly halted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for about one-fifth of global oil supply, sending Brent crude oil trading near $105 a barrel—a surge of approximately 40% since the conflict began.

Efforts to secure the strategic waterway have hit a snag as Trump calls for an international coalition, requesting warships from China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the UK. However, Japan and Australia have declined to send naval vessels, while the UK said it was discussing "a range of options" with allies. Without a broader coalition, the U.S. has dispatched the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli and around 2,500 Marines to the region, according to military sources.

The humanitarian impact is mounting, with the UN refugee agency reporting up to 3.2 million people displaced in Iran, mostly fleeing cities. Iranian health ministry figures, which could not be independently verified, indicate more than 1,200 killed by U.S. and Israeli strikes. The conflict, which began February 28, 2026, has also led to cancellations of Formula One races in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia scheduled for April, highlighting the regional economic fallout.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has flatly stated that Iran does not want a ceasefire, contradicting Trump's earlier assertions. As the situation remains volatile, market watchers are closely monitoring Kharg Island, which handles about 90% of Iran's crude oil exports, mostly to China. Any attack on its infrastructure could quickly intensify global inflation pressures, analysts warn.