• President Trump plans to raise tariffs on US imports to 15% under Section 122 authority, following a Supreme Court decision that invalidated broader IEEPA-based tariffs.
  • The 10% tariff proclamation took effect on February 24 with exemptions for critical minerals, energy products, USMCA goods, and Section 232 items, while the 15% rate awaits signing.
  • Economic impacts include a projected 0.3-point rise in unemployment by end-2026 and a 0.1% GDP contraction, with trade tensions simmering as businesses navigate refunds and new costs.

President Donald Trump's latest trade maneuver is set to reshape global commerce, as efforts to impose a 15% global tariff on US imports have advanced in the wake of a Supreme Court ruling that struck down prior tariffs. On February 21, 2026, Trump announced via Truth Social his intent to raise tariffs from 10% to 15%—the maximum allowed under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974—just a day after the Court's 6-3 decision invalidated IEEPA-based tariffs as exceeding presidential authority. As of February 23, the proclamation to implement the 15% rate had not yet been signed, but the 10% tariff took effect on February 24, according to people familiar with the matter, with exemptions for items like critical minerals, energy products, USMCA-compliant goods from Canada and Mexico, and Section 232 tariffed goods such as steel and aluminum.

The Supreme Court's ruling has sent shockwaves through trade circles, prompting refunds for affected businesses and shifting the focus to temporary Section 122 authority, which lasts up to 150 days, until around July 24, 2026. Trump called the ruling "deeply disappointing" and pledged to explore other tools like Section 301 for "unfair trading practices" in its aftermath. The trade-weighted average US tariff rate is estimated to rise to 13.2% under the 15% plan, up from 11.6% at the 10% rate, compared to 15.3% pre-ruling and 8.3% immediately after the IEEPA invalidation. Without a deal to extend the tariffs beyond July, the administration would need congressional approval, adding uncertainty for importers already grappling with higher costs.

Industry stakeholders are bracing for the fallout. Manufacturers, such as those in the toy sector via the Learning Resources lawsuit, have gained from the IEEPA reversal but now face new surcharges. Business groups like the Toy Association note uncertainty over post-150-day renewal, with one representative stating, "We're in a holding pattern until we see the final proclamation and its exemptions." Attempts to reach the White House for comment on the timing of the 15% signing were unsuccessful, but sources indicate it could happen imminently, potentially affecting commodities like metals, electrical equipment, and motor vehicles.

Economically, the tariffs are projected to raise commodity prices and increase the US unemployment rate by 0.3 points by the end of 2026, with long-term GDP shrinking by 0.1%—roughly $30 billion annually in 2025 dollars—doubling if the measures become permanent. Yale Budget Lab models suggest these losses could intensify under permanence, while trade experts warn of a sustained protectionist shift. The move builds on prior hikes, including 25% auto tariffs in April 2025 and Canada-specific duties in February 2025, amid reciprocal trade pushes that have drawn retaliation, such as Canada's C$30 billion Phase 1 response.

Looking ahead, the short-term outlook hinges on whether Trump signs the 15% proclamation, which would take effect around February 24 if enacted, with expiration looming in July 2026 unless extended. Long-term, persistent economic drag is likely if tariffs become permanent, with experts predicting higher average tariffs sustaining protectionism and potential Section 301 probes. As refunds for IEEPA duties roll out over the next year, and with ongoing Section 232 exclusions and paused Canada retaliation, the trade landscape remains volatile, with businesses and consumers alike watching for the next development in this fast-evolving policy saga.