- President Trump is finalizing an international coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with participating countries expected to be announced this week.
- The blockade has disrupted 20% of global daily oil supply, pushing prices past $100 per barrel and increasing U.S. gas prices by over 70 cents per gallon.
- Behind-the-scenes diplomacy intensifies as Trump pressures allies like the UK and China, while considering military action against Iran's Kharg Island if the stalemate persists.
A Diplomatic Push Amid Escalating Tensions
President Trump is assembling an international "Hormuz Coalition" to restore commercial shipping through the Persian Gulf, with plans to announce participating countries as soon as Thursday during a White House meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Sana Taka. The move comes as Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, achieved through sea mines and small vessels, enters its third week, creating what one analyst described as "an unprecedented and escalating global energy crisis." According to people familiar with the matter, Trump and senior administration officials engaged in intensive calls over the weekend with European, Gulf, and Asian partners to build the coalition, seeking political commitments before determining specific military contributions like warships or drones.
Responses from targeted countries have been cautious so far. Japan's defense minister stated Tokyo has no plans to send ships and called for de-escalation, while European Union officials are still discussing the matter. Trump is applying diplomatic pressure, telling the Financial Times that it would be "very bad for the future of NATO" if U.S. allies do not participate. In a significant shift, he personally spoke with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer after earlier stating it was "too late" for UK involvement. Efforts to secure Chinese support have hit a snag, with Trump mentioning he might postpone a planned summit with President Xi Jinping in Beijing at the end of March if China does not engage.
The Kharg Island Contingency
Beyond coalition-building, Trump is contemplating the seizure of Iran's Kharg Island, a critical oil facility, if tankers remain blocked in the Persian Gulf. U.S. officials describe this as a potential "economic knockout of the regime," though it would require ground troops and could provoke Iranian retaliation against oil facilities in Gulf nations like Saudi Arabia. A senior White House official stated that Trump has made "no definitive decisions regarding Kharg Island" but acknowledged that "the situation could evolve" if efforts to clear the strait become prolonged. The official emphasized that "the president is not inclined to wait and allow the Iranians to dictate the pace of this conflict."
Senator Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a prominent hardline voice on Iran policy, has praised Trump's consideration of seizing Kharg Island, asserting it would "devastate" Iran's economy. However, the move carries significant risks. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that Tehran would retaliate against U.S.-linked energy facilities in response to Friday night's failed U.S. attack on Kharg Island, highlighting the potential for further escalation. Energy Secretary Chris Wright acknowledged that while the military would soon begin escorting vessels, it was not yet ready to do so effectively, adding to the uncertainty.
Domestic and International Ramifications
Domestically, Republicans in Congress have publicly and privately urged the White House to end the conflict quickly to mitigate economic shock during an election year when the party faces defensive positions in both chambers. Polling indicates that more than half of Americans oppose Trump's war with Iran, while approximately four in ten support it. Without a deal to reopen the strait, the economic fallout could worsen, with oil prices already surging and global supply chains feeling the strain.
Internationally, the success of the coalition will likely depend on whether major oil-importing nations—particularly China, Japan, and European allies—commit resources. The broader trajectory remains uncertain, contingent on whether diplomatic resolution occurs or military escalation proceeds. As Trump prepares for Thursday's announcement, the world watches to see if this coalition can defuse a crisis that has already reshaped energy markets and geopolitical alliances.