• UBS (UBS) analyst Timothy Arcuri reiterated a Buy rating and $300 price target on Nvidia (NVDA), citing September strength in a key Taiwanese export gauge.
  • The tracked computing-equipment export series hit $29.8 billion, up 25.9% month over month, signaling healthy AI infrastructure demand.
  • Nvidia’s next test is meeting its $108 billion quarterly revenue guidance, not just another strong trade print.

UBS is sticking with its bullish call on Nvidia, reaffirming a Buy rating and a $300 price target after September data showed a surge in Taiwanese computing-equipment exports. The bank’s analyst Timothy Arcuri pointed to the 25.9% month-over-month jump to $29.8 billion as evidence that demand for AI infrastructure remains robust. “The elevated absolute level of exports remains consistent with healthy underlying AI-driven demand,” UBS wrote, according to a report first noted by CNBC (VSNT).

A Narrower Gauge

The $29.8 billion figure comes from a specific series that UBS tracks—likely Automatic Data Processing Equipment excluding laptops, based on the analyst’s past methodology. It should not be confused with Taiwan’s broader export categories. Total merchandise exports reached $87.22 billion in September, up 60.9% year over year, while information, communication and audio-video products hit $39.13 billion and electronic components totaled $31.13 billion, according to Ministry of Finance data. UBS’s narrower metric offers a more targeted read on AI-related equipment, but the exact product scope could not be independently confirmed.

Taiwan’s export strength is not limited to AI servers. Electrical-machinery exports rose 29.8% year over year, supported by data-center construction and power-grid upgrades—a sign that the AI investment cycle is spilling into broader industrial activity. The Ministry of Finance also attributed the record month to advanced-component demand, constrained electronics capacity, and inventory building ahead of consumer-device launches.

The Nvidia Connection

Nvidia’s fortunes are tightly linked to Taiwan’s manufacturing ecosystem. The company designs the GPUs and networking gear that power AI data centers, while TSMC (TSM) fabricates its chips and Foxconn (2317.TW) assembles server systems. Data Center revenue accounted for $89 billion, or roughly 93% of Nvidia’s $96.2 billion in fiscal Q2 2027 revenue, up 117% year over year. That concentration explains why Taiwanese trade data matters far more to Nvidia’s investment thesis than consumer-electronics exports. UBS’s call is corroborative—the export figures support an existing growth narrative without directly measuring Nvidia’s bookings.

The broader industry backdrop remains strong. Taiwan’s August export orders exceeded $100 billion for the first time, driven by AI demand, and the Ministry of Finance forecasts October exports of $85.2 billion–$87.7 billion, up 40%–44% year over year. Annual exports are highly likely to surpass $900 billion.

Tempered Optimism

Still, UBS’s note is not a blank check. Nvidia’s next-quarter guidance of $108 billion, plus or minus 2%, assumes no Data Center compute revenue from China. U.S.–China technology restrictions continue to weigh on the addressable market; in April 2025, licensing requirements for H20 exports to China led Nvidia to record a $4.5 billion inventory charge and forgo $2.5 billion in revenue that quarter.

Arcuri’s track record with Taiwanese export data also warrants caution. In October 2025, he reiterated a Buy rating even as September ADP exports excluding laptops fell 16.03% month over month—a reminder that single-month growth rates can be volatile. The current 25.9% sequential jump is stronger, but context matters.

The next real test for Nvidia is execution against its $108 billion quarterly revenue target, not another strong Taiwan trade release. As UBS’s reiteration makes clear, the demand signals are encouraging, but they do not eliminate valuation, supply-chain, or regulatory risks.

Correction: An earlier version mischaracterized the $29.8 billion figure as total Taiwanese technology exports. It is a narrower computing-equipment series tracked by UBS.