• UBS (UBS) maintains Neutral rating on Apple (AAPL) with $280 price target, citing decelerating App Store revenue growth.
  • App Store growth slowed to 6% in November, with currency-adjusted figures at approximately 5%, facing a challenging 12% year-ago comparison in December.
  • Analysts estimate mid-teens growth in December is needed for Apple to achieve double-digit growth in the December 2025 quarter.

UBS analyst David Vogt reiterated a Neutral rating and $280 price target on Apple, pointing to moderating trends in the company's App Store revenue. According to recent data, App Store growth decelerated to 6% in November, down from 7% in September and 9% in October. When adjusted for currency fluctuations, November growth was roughly 5%, signaling potential headwinds for the tech giant's services segment, which accounts for 20% of Apple's total revenue.

Vogt noted that the App Store faces a 12% year-ago comparison in December, a benchmark he described as "challenging" in his analysis. Quarter-to-date, revenue is tracking near 7%, but to achieve double-digit growth for the entire December 2025 quarter, the App Store would need to post mid-teens growth in December—a significant acceleration from recent months. This comes as Apple's iPhone continues to drive half of its revenue, while the App Store is projected to generate $138 billion globally in 2025, a 16.9% increase from the previous year.

Efforts to sustain momentum have hit a snag amid broader market pressures, with gaming apps, which make up 60% of App Store revenue, showing signs of slowing. Subscription-based apps, comprising nearly 44% of revenue, remain a bright spot, but industry sources suggest that without a stronger December performance, Apple might miss growth targets. In a brief statement, Vogt emphasized the importance of monitoring these trends closely, though Apple declined to comment on the specific figures when reached for clarification.

As negotiations and updates unfold, market watchers are keeping a close eye on real-time data, with some analysts pointing to increased competition and regulatory scrutiny as factors that could impact future growth. The situation remains fluid, with potential for last-minute shifts in December performance that could alter the quarterly outlook.