• The US believes Iran is prepared to accept a 15-year suspension of uranium enrichment, according to the New York Times (NYT).
  • The proposed framework would trade sanctions relief for a long-term halt to enrichment above 3.67%.
  • IAEA verification would be key, but gaps on stockpile limits and monitoring remain.

A Potential Breakthrough in Nuclear Talks

The United States has concluded that Iran is ready to agree to a 15-year suspension of uranium enrichment, according to people familiar with the matter. The shift, reported by the New York Times, marks a potential turning point in negotiations that have dragged on for months. Under the draft terms, Tehran would cease enrichment above 3.67% purity for 15 years in exchange for broad sanctions relief, including the unfreezing of billions in oil revenues.

Negotiators have been wrestling with the duration of any enrichment pause, with earlier proposals floating a 5-year framework. The move to 15 years appears to reflect a compromise aimed at securing a durable deal. “Both sides have shown flexibility,” a diplomat involved in the talks said. “But the details on stockpile management and verification remain tough.”

Verification and Stockpile Gaps Persist

Despite the apparent breakthrough, significant hurdles remain. The International Atomic Energy Agency would be tasked with monitoring compliance, but Iran has resisted some inspection protocols. The US has also demanded a reduction in Iran’s existing enriched uranium stockpile, a point of contention. “Without a deal, the risk of a nuclear-armed Iran is unacceptable,” a US official said. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because the talks are ongoing.

Market reaction has been muted but optimistic. Oil prices edged lower on the news, with Brent crude slipping 0.5% to $89.20 a barrel as traders bet on the potential for increased Iranian exports. Broader markets have yet to price in a full normalization, given the history of false starts.

Broader Implications

The proposed 15-year suspension could reshape the regional landscape. Israel has voiced strong opposition, warning that any deal must address Iran’s ballistic missile program and regional proxies. “A limited enrichment pause is not enough,” an Israeli official said. Meanwhile, European allies have urged quick resolution, fearing a breakdown could trigger a crisis.

Correction: An earlier version of this article mischaracterized the duration of the proposed suspension. It is 15 years, not 5.

This article is based on reports from the New York Times and other outlets. Attempts to reach the Iranian mission to the UN for comment were unsuccessful.