• U.S. business inventories increased 0.1% in November 2025, falling short of the consensus forecast of +0.2%.
  • The modest buildup reflects stabilizing supply chains amid slowing demand, with the inventories/sales ratio improving to 1.28 from 1.32 a year earlier.
  • Manufacturing PMI contracted to 48.2% in November, signaling ongoing challenges in industrial sectors despite slight inventory improvements.

U.S. business inventories rose 0.1% in November 2025, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Monthly Wholesale Trade Report released on Thursday. The figure came in below the consensus forecast of +0.2%, indicating a cautious approach to restocking as economic growth moderates.

Total merchant wholesaler inventories reached $915.0 billion, up 0.2% from October's revised figures and 1.8% higher than November 2024 levels. The inventories/sales ratio improved to 1.28 from 1.32 a year earlier, suggesting more efficient inventory management despite the slower buildup. Wholesale sales hit $714.1 billion in November, climbing 1.3% from October and 5.2% from the same period last year.

"The numbers point to a normalization of supply chains after years of disruption, but also reflect some hesitancy among businesses to build stockpiles," said an economist familiar with the matter who requested anonymity because they weren't authorized to speak publicly. "Manufacturers in particular are facing headwinds that make aggressive inventory accumulation unlikely in the near term."

Broader business inventories, which include manufacturers and retailers, reached $2,677.8 billion at the end of October 2025, up 0.3% from September and 1.4% from October 2024. The inventories/sales ratio for this broader measure stood at 1.38, down from 1.41 year-over-year.

The November data follows October's stronger-than-expected 0.3% increase, which exceeded forecasts of +0.2% and was led by retailers adding 0.6% to their inventories. September saw a more modest 0.2% rise.

Manufacturing sector weakness appears to be weighing on inventory growth. The Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2% in November, remaining in contraction territory for the third consecutive month. The Inventories Index improved to 48.9% from 45.8% in October but still indicated contraction, while customers' inventories registered at 44.7%—considered too low by ISM standards.

"We're seeing manufacturers pull back on production while working through existing backlogs," noted a supply chain analyst at a major consulting firm. "The import contraction we're observing, with the ISM's Imports Index at 48.9% in November, suggests businesses are being selective about what they bring in."

Efforts to reach officials at the Census Bureau for additional comment were unsuccessful by publication time.

Year-over-year, inventories have increased approximately 1.4-1.8%, supporting what economists describe as mild economic expansion. This represents a significant shift from the pandemic recovery period when inventories surged by as much as 2.5% monthly in late 2021, and from the 2020 lows when inventories contracted by 2.4%.

Looking ahead, Trading Economics forecasts inventory growth accelerating to +0.4% by quarter-end and trending toward approximately 0.5% into 2027, assuming steady consumer demand. However, the persistent contraction in manufacturing backlogs—with ISM's Backlog of Orders Index at 44% in November—suggests ongoing uncertainty in industrial sectors.

For consumers, the slower-than-expected inventory growth could provide some relief from inflationary pressures by limiting excess stock that might otherwise lead to discounting. Retailers may benefit from more efficient inventory management, though manufacturers in sectors like machinery and transportation equipment continue to face challenges that could pressure employment in those industries.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the year-over-year comparison for wholesale inventories. The correct figure is 1.8% higher than November 2024, not 1.5% as initially reported.