• US preliminary durable goods orders rose 0.5% month-over-month in September, rebounding from a sharp 2.9% decline in August.
  • Core orders, which exclude the volatile transportation sector, increased a stronger 0.6% m/m, signaling underlying resilience in business investment.
  • The uptick was largely driven by a near-tripling of orders for Boeing aircraft, providing a temporary boost to a manufacturing sector still facing significant headwinds.

New orders for long-lasting manufactured goods unexpectedly climbed in September, according to preliminary data, offering a glimmer of hope for a sector that has been battered by higher borrowing costs and trade tensions. The 0.5% increase marks a reversal from the previous month's steep decline, though the rebound appears narrowly concentrated.

The core capital goods orders figure, a closely watched proxy for business investment, rose 0.6%, suggesting that some corporate spending plans are holding firm despite economic uncertainty. "The ex-transportation number is the real story here," said an economist familiar with the data who was not authorized to speak publicly. "It shows there's still some underlying momentum, even if it's fragile."

Driving the overall headline was a massive surge in orders for Boeing aircraft, which nearly tripled in September. This is widely seen as connected to a pending, large-scale deal with China for up to 500 aircraft, a significant development in the fraught U.S.-China trade relationship. A spokesperson for Boeing declined to comment on specific order figures, pointing instead to the company's upcoming earnings report.

Despite the positive data, the broader manufacturing landscape remains challenging. The sector is experiencing a clear bifurcation, with strong demand in aerospace and defense—the latter buoyed by ongoing global conflicts—contrasting with weakness in consumer durables and autos. Elevated interest rates and new tariffs continue to pressure corporate profit margins and dampen broader industrial activity.

The U.S. Census Bureau is scheduled to release its full, official report on October 27, which will provide a more detailed picture. For now, the September figures represent a tentative recovery in manufacturing momentum, though one that economists warn may be short-lived without a more durable pickup in demand.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the month of the previous decline; it was August, not July.