• A record 62.6% more home sellers than buyers in September, the widest gap since Redfin (RDFN) began tracking in 2013.
  • Buyer demand hit a record low with just 929,000 buyers versus 1.51 million sellers, as high mortgage rates and affordability pressures crush housing demand.
  • A record 41 of the 50 largest U.S. metro areas are now buyer's markets, led by Miami, Nashville, and Houston.

A Historic Imbalance

The U.S. housing market has reached a striking milestone: sellers now outnumber buyers by the widest margin in more than a decade. According to a Redfin report released October 14, there were 62.6% more home sellers than buyers in September—the largest gap since the brokerage began tracking the data in 2013. The figures imply roughly 581,000 more sellers than buyers.

The report, which matches a Redfin release published earlier this month, underscores the depth of the affordability crisis gripping the housing market. Just 929,000 buyers were active in September, a record low, compared with 1.51 million sellers. The imbalance has turned a record 41 of the 50 largest metropolitan areas into buyer's markets, led by Miami, Nashville, and Houston. Only five major metros remain seller's markets, with Nassau County, New York, the strongest, where sellers are outnumbered by buyers by 28.6%.

Buyers Gain Leverage, but Affordability Remains Elusive

While the shift toward a buyer's market gives those who can afford today's financing more negotiating power, it does not necessarily mean homes have become affordable. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 7.40% on October 8, its highest level in nearly three years, according to mortgage-finance data. High borrowing costs continue to limit purchasing power and keep many prospective buyers on the sidelines.

"A buyer's market does not mean affordable homes," said one industry analyst who requested anonymity to discuss market conditions. "It means more choice and more room to negotiate, but monthly payments are still prohibitive for many."

Recent indicators support that view. Redfin reported that 21% of sellers cut their asking prices during the four weeks ending September 20, the highest share for that time of year on record, up from 19.8% a year earlier. Yet national home prices rose 1.3% year over year in September, with a median of $393,895, according to Redfin's national market dashboard. More seller competition has not yet translated into falling prices nationwide.

A Frozen Market

September existing-home sales rose 1.5% from August to an annualized 3.99 million, but remained below the year-earlier level. The modest monthly improvement does little to alter the broader picture: the housing market has been essentially frozen since 2023, according to Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather, as elevated mortgage rates and affordability pressures suppress both buying and selling activity.

The imbalance between sellers and buyers is a measure of market conditions, not a forecast of price declines. It reflects the tension between improved purchasing conditions—more inventory, more price cuts—and financing costs that remain near multi-year highs.

Redfin, now a wholly owned subsidiary of Rocket Companies (RKT), is navigating the downturn through integration with its parent. Rocket reported that Redfin doubled mortgage leads year over year in June, illustrating how the combined company can gain customers even in a weak market. Rocket's Q2 2026 results showed total revenue of $2.78 billion, up from $1.45 billion a year earlier, though those figures include the broader mortgage and servicing platform.

The path forward depends largely on whether mortgage rates ease. Forecasts are mixed: the Mortgage Bankers Association's Michael Fratantoni expects the 30-year rate to average 7.3% in the fourth quarter of 2026 and remain above 7% through 2027, while NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun has cautioned that buyers may need to accept rates around 7% as the "new normal." For now, the record seller-buyer gap is a clear sign that the housing market remains far from normal.