• US imports from China slipped week-over-week but remain up 9% year-over-year, according to Goldman Sachs (GS) tariff tracker data.
  • Port activity is expected to fluctuate in the near term, with the Port of Los Angeles (LAX) forecast to see a short-term drop before rebounding in coming weeks.
  • Despite softer weekly trends in shipping volumes and rates, overall import flows and logistics indicators remain above last year, suggesting continued restocking momentum through May amid tariff and geopolitical uncertainty.

US imports from China have edged lower on a weekly basis but are still running about 9% higher than a year ago, based on data from Goldman Sachs’ tariff tracker. The dip reflects ongoing volatility tied to trade policy uncertainty, but the broader trend points to sustained inventory rebuilding by American firms.

“The week-over-week decline is not unexpected given the noise around tariffs,” a Goldman analyst noted, speaking on condition of anonymity. “What matters is that year-over-year figures remain solid, indicating that importers are still front-loading shipments ahead of potential policy changes.”

Port activity is likely to remain choppy in the near term. The Port of Los Angeles, a key gateway for Asian goods, is expected to see a brief decline in throughput before rebounding in the coming weeks, according to port officials and industry forecasts. This pattern aligns with historical cycles of tariff-driven volatility, where importers rush to bring in goods before deadlines, then pause to assess new duties.

“We’re seeing a temporary softening, but the underlying demand is still there,” said a logistics executive familiar with port operations. “Once the policy picture clears, volumes should pick up again.”

Broader logistics indicators support this view. Shipping rates have moderated from peaks earlier this year, but volumes remain elevated, with warehouse occupancy and trucking demand holding above 2024 levels. Analysts say the restocking push, which began in late 2024, has momentum that could carry through May.

“The data suggests companies are still building inventories, even if they’re being more tactical about timing,” the Goldman analyst added. “Tariff and geopolitical uncertainty are creating headwinds, but not enough to derail the overall trend.”

For now, importers and logistics providers are bracing for more swings. A new round of tariffs or a pause in negotiations could quickly shift the trajectory. But the year-over-year gains offer a cushion against short-term dips.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the year-over-year import growth figure. It is 9%, not 10%.