• U.S. and Iranian negotiators have agreed on a 60-day ceasefire and framework for nuclear talks, but the deal awaits final approval from President Trump.
  • The memorandum would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted shipping and include Iranian commitments on uranium enrichment, alongside possible sanctions relief discussions.
  • Officials say most terms are settled, but final authorization from top leadership on both sides remains pending, with Trump reportedly taking several days to decide.

A Fragile Breakthrough

U.S. and Iranian negotiators have made unexpected progress in backchannel talks, hammering out a provisional framework that proposes a 60-day ceasefire and a renewed path for nuclear negotiations. The deal, which includes reopening the strategic Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted shipping and caps on Iran's uranium enrichment, now faces its biggest hurdle: the signature of President Trump, who, according to people familiar with the matter, is taking “a few days” to weigh the terms.

The memo, finalized after weeks of shuttle diplomacy, also sketches outlines for sanctions relief—though precise conditions remain undefined. “We’ve got broad principles in place, but the leaders need to sign off,” a senior State Department official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the talks were confidential. Efforts to reach the White House for comment were unsuccessful.

Crunch Time for Leadership

While negotiators on both sides have described the terms as largely settled, the final go-ahead depends on Trump and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The White House has signaled that any deal must include verifiable commitments on enrichment and shipping, with some aides pushing for more stringent verification protocols. Iran, meanwhile, has stressed that sanctions relief must be tangible and immediate, not just a promise.

“The next 48 hours will be critical,” said a European diplomat briefed on the talks. “If Trump gives the green light, we could see Hormuz traffic normalized within weeks.” The Strait, a chokepoint for about 20% of global oil shipments, has been a flashpoint in recent months, with tanker insurance premiums soaring and some shippers rerouting.

Market Implications

A reopening of the Strait could ease global energy price pressures, with Brent crude (XOM) already dipping 2% in early trading on the news. However, analysts caution that the ceasefire is temporary and could collapse if the nuclear talks stall. “This is a classic pressure-release valve,” said an energy market strategist at a London-based consultancy. “It buys time, but the underlying disagreements on enrichment remain.”

In Tehran, the rial briefly strengthened against the dollar in unofficial markets, but traders remain skeptical. “Sanctions relief is the key,” a Tehran-based economist noted. “Without real access to foreign exchange, the deal means little for ordinary Iranians.”

What’s Next

Both sides are bracing for potential domestic blowback. Hardliners in Washington have already criticized the framework as a “surrender,” while in Iran, conservative media are questioning the benefits of talks. If Trump gives his approval, the 60-day countdown begins, with formal negotiations on enrichment and sanctions slated to launch in the second month.

Failure to secure final authorization, however, could send the region back to the brink. Without a deal, tanker traffic in Hormuz would remain severely restricted, and the risk of escalation—whether through skirmishes or cyber attacks—would rise.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the duration of the proposed ceasefire as 30 days. It is 60 days.