• The U.S. S&P Global (SPGI) February final Composite PMI rose slightly to 51.9, with the Services PMI at 51.7, indicating continued but modest private sector expansion amid slowing growth momentum at the start of the year.
  • Manufacturing showed relative strength with rising output and new orders, while services growth cooled, reflecting weaker demand, near-stagnant employment, and elevated costs.
  • Businesses cited tariffs, geopolitical uncertainty, and high prices as key pressures, tempering optimism and pointing to subdued annualized U.S. GDP expansion of around 1.5%.

These final February readings confirm ongoing business activity growth for the third straight year, though at a subdued pace consistent with annualized U.S. GDP expansion of around 1.5%, down from prior quarters and below long-term trends. Manufacturing showed relative strength with rising output and new orders, while services growth cooled, reflecting weaker demand, near-stagnant employment, and elevated costs. Businesses cited tariffs, geopolitical uncertainty, and high prices as key pressures, tempering optimism.

No company-specific details apply, as this headline reports macroeconomic indicators from S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global, provider of PMI surveys via executive polls across 40+ economies; no recent financials, leadership changes, or restructurings were noted in the results. The data signals resilience despite low confidence, with global Composite PMI hitting 52.5 in January, up from 52.0, and U.S. growth diverging from eurozone slowdowns and emerging market gains such as in India and China. This is consistent with global GDP at 2.6% annualized, below the pre-pandemic 3.2% average.

Market trends reveal a nuanced picture: the Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9, a three-month high, driven by output and orders, but cost inflation hit three-year peaks, while services lag signals a shifting growth composition. Weak new business and jobs growth point to Q1 risks, according to analysts familiar with the surveys. Tariffs, often linked to U.S. policy, are widely blamed for cost rises and dampened demand and confidence, alongside geopolitical tensions affecting trade outlooks in emerging markets and U.S. firms. No specific regulations or international relations shifts were detailed beyond ongoing uncertainty.

Slower expansion and stagnant payrolls disappoint workers amid weak demand and affordability concerns from inflation; businesses delay hiring and investment due to uncertainty, though no public reactions or debates were reported in the surveys. Historically, U.S. output has grown continuously for three years but slowed from 2025 peaks; the December 2025 Composite was 52.7, an eight-month low, with the January flash at 52.8 showing a marginal uptick before the February finals. This mirrors a global pattern of post-2025 resilience below trend, akin to late-2024 manufacturing recoveries.

Looking ahead, the short-term outlook suggests subdued Q1 GDP growth of around 1.5%, with inflation risks from costs and potential demand stall. Long-term, confidence below averages signals cooling U.S. expansion; manufacturing optimism reached a seven-month high, contrasting with services weakness, but geopolitical and tariff worries cap upside. Experts note fiscal spending, lower rates, and markets as supports, though uncertainty discourages investment. In related developments, global manufacturing saw an uptick in January with a PMI of 50.9, led by more economies expanding, while China and Russia posted modest gains offsetting a stall in Brazil. The U.S. experienced an end-2025 slowdown with the first manufacturing orders drop in a year and below-average confidence into 2026, paralleling trends in the eurozone and UK where output expectations rose to multi-month highs, while Canada contracted and emerging markets were mixed on trade fears.