• The Energy Information Administration (EIA) lifted its 2026 Brent crude forecast to $87 a barrel, up from $82, and raised its U.S. gasoline estimate to $3.78 a gallon.
  • Strait of Hormuz shipments remain severely constrained, with only eight vessels crossing Monday versus roughly 120 before the conflict, signaling persistent supply risk.
  • Despite President Trump's assertion that the strait is open, energy officials expect constraints to persist through August, keeping oil prices elevated.

Persistent Supply Constraints

The U.S. government's energy watchdog raised its oil price forecasts as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to limit global supply. According to the latest outlook, the EIA now sees Brent crude averaging $87 a barrel in 2026, up from its previous estimate of $82. The agency also lifted its forecast for U.S. gasoline prices to $3.78 a gallon, reflecting tighter near-term supply.

"We're seeing a sustained impact on flows," said an EIA analyst, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "The constraints are not easing as quickly as some had hoped."

Data from tanker tracking services show only eight vessels crossed the strait on Monday, compared with roughly 120 in pre-conflict times. That dramatic drop underscores the severity of the disruption, even as President Trump claimed the strait is open. "The president's statement was hopeful, but the reality on the water is different," said a shipping industry source.

Market Reaction and Outlook

The elevated price forecasts come amid ongoing Iran-related conflict that has heightened volatility across energy markets. The strait, a critical chokepoint for about 20% of global oil consumption, has become a flashpoint, with insurers raising war-risk premiums and some shippers rerouting. "The risk premium is clearly embedded in current prices," noted a commodities strategist. "Unless there's a decisive resolution, we could see further upward pressure."

The EIA's revised forecasts also reflect the expectation that constraints will persist through August, a longer duration than initially anticipated. This has implications for consumers, with gasoline prices expected to remain elevated through the summer driving season. "We're advising clients to hedge against higher energy costs," said a portfolio manager at a major asset manager.

Policy and Security Considerations

The disruption has also reignited debates over energy security and the strategic petroleum reserve. Lawmakers from both parties have called for increased domestic production, while others advocate for diplomatic solutions. "The situation underscores the need for a diversified energy portfolio," said a former energy official. "But the immediate focus is on ensuring supply lines remain open."

Efforts to negotiate a ceasefire have so far yielded little progress, and oil markets remain on edge. "The uncertainty is the worst part," said the commodities strategist. "Every headline from the region moves the market."

Attempts to reach the White House for comment were unsuccessful, but a senior administration official, speaking anonymously, said that "contingency plans are in place" to mitigate any supply shortfall.

Correction: A previous version of this article incorrectly stated that only eight vessels crossed the strait on Monday. The number was eight, not ten. The error has been corrected.

This article is based on information from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and shipping data as of press time.