• Vice President JD Vance concedes that gasoline prices are high, telling undecided voters in Kansas that 'it is true.'
  • The national average for regular gasoline stands at $4.27 per gallon, according to AAA, as crude oil approaches $100 a barrel.
  • Vance blames Democratic energy policies, but energy experts point to the Iran war and disruptions to Gulf oil flows as the principal drivers.

Vance: 'I Understand That. It Is True.'

Vice President JD Vance, campaigning in Topeka, Kansas, on October 26, told undecided voters that he understands their pain at the pump. 'You'll hear a lot of people say that gas prices are too high. And I understand that. It is true,' Vance said at a rally for Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, who is facing Democrat Adam Hamilton in a tight race. The comments come just days before the November 3 midterm elections, as Republicans fight to retain control of the Senate.

Gasoline prices have become a central issue in the campaign. According to AAA, the national average for regular gasoline is approximately $4.27 per gallon as of October 27. The organization's October 22 update noted a six-cent weekly decline, partly due to the seasonal switch to cheaper winter-blend fuel, but also cautioned that crude oil was approaching $100 a barrel. The high prices persist despite recent declines, leaving households and businesses feeling the squeeze.

Blame Game Over Responsibility

Vance laid the blame for high prices on Democratic energy policies, arguing that they have constrained domestic production and refining. However, recent reporting and energy experts instead identify the Iran war and disruption to Gulf oil flows as the principal immediate drivers of elevated prices. 'The biggest factors behind elevated crude costs are reduced shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and damage to Gulf export and pipeline infrastructure,' said Hugh Daigle, a petroleum engineering professor at the University of Texas.

Skip York, an energy fellow at Rice University, added that attacks have taken roughly 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity offline in Russia and the Middle East. Because much of that capacity produces diesel, U.S. refiners have shifted some production toward diesel, tightening gasoline availability as well.

A related Vance claim has drawn a significant factual challenge. He previously said about 20% of American refining capacity went offline under President Biden. An October 26 PolitiFact report says that figure describes California's loss, not the national picture, and quotes GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan calling it incorrect nationally.

Political and Economic Context

The comments come immediately before the midterm elections, and Vance's visit is part of a Republican push to retain Marshall's Senate seat. His gasoline remarks were directed specifically at undecided voters. The policy debate has two distinct layers: longer-term energy policy, where Vance argues that Democratic environmental policies constrained domestic production and refining; and immediate foreign-policy consequences, with reporting identifying the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and restrictions on movement through the Strait of Hormuz as central to this year's price surge. This makes the administration's handling of the conflict directly relevant to the domestic cost-of-living debate.

Vance's acknowledgment also contrasts with President Trump's more optimistic economic messaging. Associated Press reporting describes Vance taking a more empathetic approach—'we're working on it'—while Trump emphasizes investment and a 'golden age.' That contrast has become a related political story. His description of price spikes occurring when a 'tinpot dictator' throws a tantrum drew criticism online, with critics arguing that it sidesteps the current administration's role in the Iran conflict.

What to Watch

The evidence supports a conditional outlook rather than a firm price forecast. Seasonal relief may continue to help: AAA's latest reporting shows cheaper winter-blend gasoline contributing to lower pump prices. But geopolitical risk remains the larger constraint. Sustained disruption to Gulf shipping and infrastructure can keep crude expensive and limit that relief. Political exposure remains high, as recent declines have not removed gasoline prices from the final stretch of the midterm campaign.

Refinery investment and domestic supply resilience matter, but they are not quick or complete substitutes for stable global energy flows. Yale energy economist Kenneth Gillingham says reduced refining capacity contributes somewhat to current gasoline and diesel prices, but is 'by no means the biggest reason' prices are high. The most consequential developments to watch are therefore Gulf shipping access, damage or restoration to energy infrastructure, and the balance between gasoline and diesel production—not Vance's acknowledgment alone.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the date of the PolitiFact report. It was published on October 26, not October 27.