• Vice President JD Vance says the U.S. has made significant progress in nuclear negotiations with Iran, but warns the military campaign could resume if needed.
  • Both sides are considering a 14-point framework that includes a 12–15 year enrichment moratorium and phased sanctions relief.
  • Oil markets react positively, with Brent crude sliding below $90/barrel on hopes of reopened Hormuz traffic.

Islamabad Talks Show 'Real Progress'

Speaking on May 14, Vice President JD Vance acknowledged that negotiations with Iran have advanced, with a one-page memorandum of understanding under discussion. The proposed deal includes a 12–15 year moratorium on uranium enrichment, enhanced IAEA inspections, and a commitment from Tehran to avoid weaponization. In exchange, the U.S. would offer phased sanctions relief, release of frozen assets, and lifting of transit restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz. “We’ve made a lot of progress,” Vance said, though he added that the U.S. “can restart the military campaign” if necessary—something neither President Trump nor Iran wants.

Military Campaign Continues

The U.S.–Iran conflict entered its 76th day on Wednesday, with ongoing airstrikes. Vance confirmed the U.S. will “keep striking Iran for a little while longer” as talks proceed, emphasizing that the military option remains on the table. The administration has insisted on a comprehensive agreement before halting operations. Meanwhile, President Trump began a trip to China amid the diplomatic push.

Market and Regional Impact

Expectations of a potential deal have already weighed on oil markets, with Brent crude sliding toward $90/barrel as traders anticipate the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The proposed lifting of transit restrictions would stabilize global supply. However, significant gaps remain on verification and enrichment limits, and both sides have warned that failure could lead to renewed escalation. The White House signaled optimism but stressed that “nothing is final until it’s signed.”

This article was updated to reflect Vance’s full remarks and current status of the talks.