• Wall Street bonuses are expected to rise for a third consecutive year, driven by surging trading revenue and a rebound in M&A activity.
  • Investment bankers and equity traders could see bonuses jump 10% to 20% or more, following record profits at major banks in early 2026.
  • Wealth managers are expected to see more modest gains, while private credit firms face headwinds from increased competition.

Wall Street bonuses are set to climb again in 2026, extending a three-year streak of gains as trading booms and dealmaking rebounds. Analysts are calling it the year of the bank, with major institutions like JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Bank of America (BK) posting record early-2026 profits that have fueled expectations for bigger bonus pools.

Investment bankers and equity traders are poised to be the biggest beneficiaries, with compensation rising 10% to 20% or more, according to people familiar with the matter. The surge reflects a perfect storm of market volatility, strong M&A activity and Trump-era deregulation that has boosted underwriting fees and trading volumes across Wall Street.

“We’re seeing a return to the kind of environment that rewards top performers handsomely,” one senior banker said. The firm’s bonus committee is already planning to increase payouts for dealmakers and traders, though final decisions won’t be made until year-end.

Wealth managers are also expected to see modest increases, though their bonuses will lag behind those of investment bankers and traders. Private credit firms, meanwhile, are facing tougher conditions as competition for deals intensifies, with some funds struggling to deploy capital at attractive returns.

But the outlook isn’t without risks. Geopolitical tensions, tariffs and interest rate uncertainty could dampen the mood later this year, potentially crimping profits and bonus pools. “The market is frothy, but we’re only one shock away from a correction,” a risk manager cautioned.

Still, for now, Wall Street is riding high. New York State comptroller data show total bonuses hit a record $49.2 billion in 2025, up 9% from the prior year, and early 2026 trends suggest another double-digit increase. The average bonus for securities industry employees in New York is expected to top $250,000 for the first time.

For the broader economy, higher bonuses could boost spending on luxury goods, real estate and philanthropy, particularly in financial hubs like New York and London. “When bankers are feeling flush, everyone gets a piece of the action,” one economist noted.

This article has been updated to reflect the latest bonus projections for 2026.