Banco del Bajío, S.A., Institución de Banca Múltiple

Banco del Bajío, S.A., Institución de Banca Múltiple

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Q4 2025 · Earnings Call Transcript

Jan 29, 2026

APIChat

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Banco del Bajio's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results Conference Call. My name is Anna, and I will be your coordinator today.

[Operator Instructions]. Before we begin the call today, I would like to remind you that forward-looking statements made during today's conference call do not account for future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance and financial results.

These statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. Please note that this video conference is being recorded.

Joining us today from BanBajío are Mr. Carlos De la Cerda, Executive Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors; Mr.

Edgardo del Rincon, Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Joaquin Dominguez, Chief Financial Officer; and Mr.

Rodrigo Marimon, Investor Relations Officer. They will be available to answer your questions during the Q&A session.

For opening remarks and introductions, I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Rodrigo Marimon.

Mr. Marimon, you may begin.

Rodrigo Marimon Bernales

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us to discuss BanBajío's results for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2025.

Today, we will review our quarterly and annual performance, analyze the key drivers and financial trends and share our strategic outlook for 2026. The industry data cited today throughout the presentation is based on CNBV's information as of November 2025, which is the most recent publicly available data.

Without any further ado, let's start with the presentation. Starting on Slide 3 with a look at our key financial highlights for the quarter and full year 2025.

It was a year of solid execution despite the challenging operating environment with a stagnant GDP growth and a lower interest rate. Turning to credit performance.

The total loan portfolio expanded by 4.6% year-over-year. This was primarily driven by the company loans portfolio, which grew at a rate of 5.2%.

On the funding side, total deposits saw a robust increase of 10.5% compared to the previous year. Regarding asset quality, our NPL ratio improved significantly to the end of the year at 1.49%, supported by a strong coverage ratio of 126.5%.

This trend also drove an improvement in our risk profile with the cost of risk for the full year at 0.96%, while in the fourth quarter, it decreased further to 0.75%. In terms of profitability, we achieved an efficiency ratio of 39.8% for the full year and 43.5% for the fourth quarter.

Our return on average equity stood at 19.4% for the 12-month period and 18.1% for the quarter, while the return on average assets was 2.4% and 2.2%, respectively. Net income for the full year 2025 reached MXN 9.1 billion with the fourth quarter contributing MXN 2.2 billion.

Finally, our preliminary capitalization ratio as of December 2025 stands at a solid 15.5%, composed entirely of common equity Tier 1 capital. Moving to Slide 4.

We examine our 2025 performance against the guidance provided to the market. We are very proud to report that BanBajío met or outperformed most of the targets established for the year.

Starting with our balance sheet, loan growth stood slightly below our range, reflecting disciplined growth in a challenging year. Conversely, deposits outperformed expectations with a 10.5% increase, well above our 6% to 9% target.

Our net interest margin landed right on target at 6%, while noninterest income, the combination of fees and trading income grew by 4.4%. Operating expenses grew 8.2%, close to the bottom of the guided range, reflecting our ongoing commitment to cost control.

This led to an efficiency ratio of 39.8%, outperforming our 40% to 42% guidance. The significant improvement in our portfolio mentioned earlier resulted in a cost of risk that our target range of 1% to 1.1%.

As for our bottom line results, the delivered net income of MXN 9.1 billion significantly exceeded the high end of our guided range. This drove a strong return on average equity, which reached the upper bound of our target.

Finally, regarding our asset quality and solvency, we exceeded our guidance for the NPLs, coverage and capitalization ratios. Moving to our loan portfolio growth details on Slide 5.

The total loan portfolio reached MXN 278 billion at the end of the fourth quarter, leading to the mentioned year-over-year expansion of 4.6%. This growth was primarily driven by our core business, company loans, which include both corporate and SME segments, increasing by 5.2% and now representing 86% of our total loan book.

Consumer loans continued with a double-digit growth trend reported in the past quarters, growing 11.4% year-over-year. The 12.1% expansion in the government portfolio was driven by a specific exposure originated in December with good levels of interest margins, an opportunity aligned with our focus on profitable growth.

This trend, coupled with a 11.4% contraction in financial institutions, underscores our strategic reallocation of capital towards our higher-margin business line. On Slide 6, I want to highlight the strategic evolution of our sales force as we move into 2026.

This initiative is an enhancement of our existing business model and our competitive edges, designed to further accelerate loan growth by deepening our segment specialization and sharpening our operational agility. We are reinforcing this through 3 strategic pillars.

First, we are optimizing our credit process to ensure we improve our speed and responsiveness. Second, we are increasing our regional presence in major cities with an important growth in our sales force and executive bankers.

This allow our bankers to focus exclusively on the specific needs of their respective segments, ensuring a higher level of expertise and tailored service. Third, we are scaling our successful SME centers.

We recently opened a new hub in Mexico City, and we have 3 more scheduled for the next quarters in Querétaro, Guadalajara and a third location in Mexico City. We expect to conclude 2026 with 11 specialized centers, keeping us on our path to 20 centers by 2030.

Turning now to Slide 7. Let's examine our asset quality and risk profile.

Notably, our NPL ratio improved significantly to 1.49%. This performance significantly widened the gap with the system average of 2.25% Similarly, our adjusted NPL ratio stood at 2.84% compared to the system's 4.45%.

This marked improvement in portfolio health allowed us to optimize the cost of risk to 0.75% for the fourth quarter. Regarding coverage, we maintain a prudent ratio of 126.5%.

And as of December 2025, we continue to hold MXN 330 million in additional reserves, which we plan to absorb over the next 6 months. These improvements allow us to enter 2026 with a healthier loan portfolio, ensuring BanBajío's position to support a more active lending environment in the upcoming year.

Turning to the funding side on Slide 8. Total deposits reached MXN 273 billion in the fourth quarter, representing a robust 10.5% year-over-year increase.

This performance was underpinned by an 11.6% rise in demand deposits and a 9.4% increase in time deposits. Over the last 4 years, we have maintained a resilient 10% compound annual growth rate in total deposits, a track record that remarks the strength of our franchise and the deepening of our core customer relationships.

On Slide 9, our current funding breakdown shows that demand deposits remain the core of our strategy, representing 40% of our total funding mix. Notably, zero-cost deposits saw a significant increase during the period, now accounting for 19% of the total breakdown.

This robust growth in noninterest-bearing funding was the primary driver behind the market decrease in our overall cost of funds in the quarter. This highlights the reversal of the upward trend observed in third quarter 2025 and the widening of the gap with the reference rate.

Our cost of funds for the fourth quarter reached 4.94%, a 169 basis point decrease compared to the same period last year and 50 basis points below the previous quarter. Likewise, our cost of funds as a percentage of TIIE dropped to 64.7% in the quarter, a positive divergence from the system average that saw funding costs climbing closer to the reference rate.

Moving to Slide 10. The net interest margin for the fourth quarter was 5.77%.

This represents 100 basis points contraction year-over-year, primarily driven by the lower interest rate environment, which contributed 68 basis points to the decline and changes in the portfolio mix, which accounted for the remaining 32 basis points. Through active balance sheet management, we maintained rate sensitivity at around 20 basis points throughout 2025, effectively cushioning the impact of the accelerated rate cycle on our margin.

While our expansion into zero-cost deposits drove a temporary uptick in sensitivity during the final quarter, we have already seen a normalization in early 2026, and we expect this stability to prevail throughout the year. You will see the overall stable performance of BanBajío's revenues on Slide 11.

Total revenues for 2025 stood at MXN 25 billion, a minor 2.6% decrease despite the significant pressure on margins. This stability was underpinned by the successful execution of our diversification strategy as normalized noninterest income grew a robust 26.2% for the full year.

Net fees and commissions increased 16.3% year-over-year, driven by a 39.8% surge in cash management fees and a 38.4% increase in revenues from our digital platform, Bajionet. Additionally, normalized trading income rose 18.2% during the same period.

These results validate our intentions to grow recurring fee-based income, limiting the impact of economic and interest rate cycles on our long-run performance. Moving to Slide 12.

Our efficiency ratio for the full year 2025 stood at 39.8%, successfully outperforming our guidance range. For the fourth quarter, the ratio was 43.5%.

Despite this quarterly uptick, BanBajío continues to be one of the most efficient banks in the industry, maintaining a significant gap against the system's average of 46.3% and demonstrates the operational discipline and strict cost control that we have been anticipating to the market. Turning to profitability on Slide 13.

It is important to highlight that despite the quarterly compression seen throughout the year, we successfully exceeded the upper end of our net income 2025 guidance. This performance drove a robust full year return on average equity of 19.4%, effectively reaching the top of our target range, where return on average assets stood at a sound 2.4%.

Finally, on Slide 14, we closed 2025 with a preliminary capital adequacy ratio of 15.5%. This level stands significantly above our 14% commitment and well exceeds regulatory requirements.

Our robust capital position provides the bank with substantial flexibility to continue with the sound levels of return of value to our shareholders while supporting our growth objectives. Lastly, on Slide 15, we introduced our guidance for the 2026 fiscal year.

Beginning with macroeconomic assumptions, we estimate GDP growth at 1.3%, stable inflation at 4% and a 50 basis point decrease in the reference rate from current 7% to 6.5% by the end of 2026. Based on these drivers, we are forecasting loan growth between 8% and 10% and deposit growth from 10% to 11%.

We target net interest margin between 5.4% and 5.5%, and we expect fee and trading income to continue to grow at a sound pace of 13% to 15%. Our cost control efforts will prevail.

And operating expenses are projected to increase between 7% and 9%, maintaining our efficiency ratio within a 43% to 45% range. We forecast that these factors will lead us to a net income of MXN 8.25 billion to MXN 9 billion and a return on average equity between 16.5% to 18%.

This guidance reflects a transition towards a more normalized interest rate environment while maintaining our revenue diversification strategy and top-tier cost efficiency. Regarding our risk profile, we anticipate a cost of risk between 80 and 100 basis points, while keeping our NPL ratio below 1.7% and a coverage ratio above 1.1x.

Furthermore, we maintain our commitment to a capitalization ratio above 14%. In summary, our fourth quarter and full year results report BanBajío sound fundamentals and solid balance sheet.

We are pleased to have met most of our targets for the past year and remain fully committed to delivering on the guidance provided for 2026. With this, I conclude my presentation, and we can open the call for the Q&A session.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Ernesto Gabilondo.

Ernesto María Gabilondo Márquez

Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America. My first question will be on asset quality.

You were mentioning that you still have excess provisions of around MXN 400 million and that you expect to consume in the next 6 months. Looking to your guidance, you're expecting cost of risk between 0.8% to 1%.

So even that you are consuming the excess provisions, you're expecting that range of cost of risk. So would that be explained because you are going to have a more credit risk appetite this year as you were saying in your now -- your new strategy for the year?

And my second question is on your guidance. When looking to your ROE expectations for the year, what is the dividend payout ratio we should be assuming?

And when could we have more color of a potential special dividend this year? And lastly, I would like to pick up your brains and to see in which lines of your guidance do you see upside and downside risks?

Edgardo del Rincón Gutiérrez

Thank you, Ernesto. Regarding asset quality, NPL, as you saw, at 1.49%, a very similar level that we reported a year ago.

So we are very happy with the improvement compared with previous quarters. And also cost of risk, actually, cost of risk was the best cost of risk reported during 2025.

So yes, we have not MXN 400 million, Ernesto, we have MXN 333 million of additional reserves. The idea and the commitment with the CNBV is to use them during the following 6 months.

So as we mentioned in previous calls, we are going to have a coverage ratio that is equivalent to the regulatory reserves that we need to have. So for this year, we expect more stability.

As we mentioned in 2025, we have several isolated cases that we already -- several of them we write off during the fourth quarter because of the low probability of recovery. Of course, we continue with the legal actions regarding those cases.

But for this year, we feel comfortable with the level of cost of risk between 0.8% and 1%. We believe we are going to have less important cases transitioning to Stage 3.

Actually, the 0.75% that we had during the fourth quarter in part because we didn't have any important case transitioning to Stage 3. Regarding risk appetite, we are not considering increasing our risk appetite.

Actually, asset quality remains a cornerstone of the strategy. So we will have additional risk appetite.

The name of the game, of course, for us is to bring customers to BanBajio. And that's why we are increasing -- I mean, we are increasing the business units we have in several places, mainly in those cities like Mexico City, Guadalajara, Monterrey in which the financial system is very, very concentrated.

So that means additional bankers and additional business units. So that's why we are forecasting to recover growth and to grow the loan portfolio between 8% to 10%.

Regarding dividend, Carlos, please?

Carlos De la Cerda Serrano

Ernesto and everybody. Yesterday, the Board of Directors approved a proposal to be made in April to the stockholder meeting of a 50% payout dividend on the 2025 net profits to be paid half of it in May and the other half in September.

Later on, depending on how the year is developing, the growth in the loan portfolio and so forth, we will consider an additional dividend, but that will be probably considered during the third Q.

Edgardo del Rincón Gutiérrez

Regarding your latest question, Ernesto, about opportunities in the guidance, we are very happy with the expense level that we reported during the year. You remember in the guidance that we provide to the market in January, we were expecting between 10% to 12%.

So reaching 8%, it was very good. So we feel comfortable with the expense level of 7% to 9%.

The plan, let's say, is based in the middle of that range with 8%, but we could have some opportunity there. But this expense level includes also new branches and all the new positions because of the new business units we are implementing.

And of course, all this additional expense will be through mainly the first semester because in getting that talent in place is not something that you do immediately. It's going to take a few months.

I could say also we are very happy with the results in fees and trading income. Last year, we didn't have the volatility in FX, so we can have more volumes and better margins.

we expect this to have a recovery during 2025. And I could say also that the mix of the portfolio that we are expecting in terms of growth is related to having the corporate portfolio growing between 8% to 10%, SMEs that have a better margin around 15% and the consumer portfolio between 15% to 20%.

So this could provide an additional yield and better margins because of the mix of the assets. So I could say those could be some opportunities in the guidance.

Joaquín Domínguez Cuenca

This is Joaquin Dominguez. Another upside risk could be in case of the sale of some disclosure assets and the recovery of some loans that we had in past due loans during the last few years.

Ernesto María Gabilondo Márquez

Super helpful. Just a last question.

We continue to see a super peso and a weak dollar. So what would that imply for your loan portfolio that is denominated in dollars and to your loan portfolio related to exporters.

I just wanted like to understand if this could have an impact on NIM or in asset quality, for example, we have the peso at 16.5% if reaching a USMCA agreement.

Edgardo del Rincón Gutiérrez

Yes. Actually, we had an impact in the loan size because of the exchange rate.

The impact was a little bit more than MXN 4 billion, representing 1.6% of the loan book. So this means that instead of having a growth of 4.6% with the stability in the exchange rate, it would be 6.2%.

So that impact is already in place. And we don't see additional impact in 2026.

Actually, that could be an opportunity. Regarding exporters, those customers represent about 10% of the loan book, the loan portfolio.

Until today, what we are seeing in the financial statements, of course, is bringing challenges, but we don't see past due loans because of that. Of course, they need to strategy looking for better expenses and better efficiency.

But until today, those customers are reporting good numbers.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Danele Miranda.

Danele Miranda de Abiega

Just a very quick one from my side on loan growth guidance. I was wondering if this 8% to 10% is assuming all positive scenarios already.

I mean is this your base case with potential upside? I don't know with USMCA private investment reactivating?

Or is this already your positive scenario? And also, is this guidance seasonal?

I mean, can we expect acceleration in the second half of the year? Or will it remain in this 8% to 10% level all year?

Edgardo del Rincón Gutiérrez

Thank you, Danele. What we are seeing is, I mean, we made several changes in the organization to provide more focus.

And as I said, to have additional business units. We are talking about 4 new regional corporate banking offices, one in Guadalajara.

I mean, 2 in Guadalajara, 1 in Mexico City that is going to be the tier regional director and additional one in Monterrey. Of course, all of them with additional bankers.

And in terms of the SME centers, we currently have 8 SME centers. Those units are to attend companies with loan sizes between MXN 30 million to MXN 100 million.

We have 8 because we opened an additional one, the second one in Mexico City last December. And we are planning to open Guadalajara, Querétaro and in the second semester, an additional one in the satellite area in Mexico City to end that year with 11 SME centers.

All of this will provide support to attract more new customers to BanBajío. We are talking about between 50 to 70 additional bankers for those 2 important segments that is the core business of BanBajío.

So we feel confident with the pipeline that we are seeing today that we can reach the guidance between 8% to 10%. Maybe it's too soon to say if we have an upside risk, an upside opportunity in loan growth.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Yuri Fernandes.

Yuri Fernandes

Yuri Fernandes here from JPMorgan. I have a follow-up regarding margins.

And I think the explanation was already a little bit more positive one. But when you think about the implied margin decrease, this year, you mentioned that some 30% of the decrease was mix, right, and 70% was rates.

For 2026, for sure, we have like maybe 50, 100 bps lower rates and the average rate in Mexico should be even lower than that. But you mentioned FX volatility maybe should be less and this can help.

And then the growth of the loans, they also should help, right? I think you're growing less on the financial sector, SMEs, you mentioned around 15%.

Consumer portfolio also growing a little bit less. I know it's small, but it should grow more.

So the question is the following. For 2026 for your guidance, how you are viewing the decrease on NIMs?

Is this purely rates? Do you have some kind of mix inside that or funding was good this quarter, maybe you are baking in some funding deterioration.

Just trying to understand a little bit like the drivers. I know rates is the big part of the answer.

But if you can help us build the blocks for the margin decrease, that would be helpful. And then I can ask a second question.

Joaquín Domínguez Cuenca

Yuri, thank you for your question. This is Joaquin Dominguez.

Well, first of all, our sensitivity remains around 20 basis points for each 100 basis of change of the TIIE rate. For the 2026, maybe the impact of the mix will be more important than last year's in deposit side because as you saw, we grow much more on deposits than in the loan portfolio.

That means that we accumulate some investment in the treasury with lower interest rates. If our plans of growing in terms of loan growth, we do deliver as we expected, we will change the mix in assets.

We will have more loan portfolio instead of securities in the treasury, and that will provide us an improvement in the total assets. In terms of the loan portfolio, the market we are focused on has a higher interest rate than the average of the total loan portfolio.

So if we do well with these SME centers, we will improve the mix of assets, and that will help to improve the NIM. And in the other side, we have been doing well in terms of deposits and increasing and especially at the end of the last year, the demand deposit accounts not bearing interest.

So if we maintain that mix of the growth in demand deposits without cost, that will improve the margin, but will increase the sensitivity. And all those factors have a different result in the NIM.

But at the end of the day, what we are looking for more than a specific objective in terms of margins is improve all the lines, the mix of total portfolio, the mix of loans and the mix of deposits. And what we did for this guidance is that we maintain the composition of the assets and the deposits as they were at the end of the fourth quarter.

So any change of that mix could affect positively or negatively the guidance about the sensitivity and the margins.

Yuri Fernandes

No, super clear, Joaquin. So let's do the blocks.

Like the average rates in 2025, I think the average Banxico rate was around 8.4% maybe rates go to 6%. I'm not sure what is your estimate there, like 6%, 6.5%, maybe the average rate will decrease some 200 bps with a 20, 23, 24 bps sensitivity.

This is like 40, 45. Your guidance is implying a 50 to 60 bps decrease, right, from 6% to 5.4%.

So what I'm trying to get here is, is your guidance too conservative? Maybe if the mix plays well, as you mentioned, maybe the margin decrease is higher than -- it's less than the guidance is implying at this point?

Joaquín Domínguez Cuenca

I could say that it's not exactly conservative. It's just the result if you make the account considering the balance sheet in the fourth quarter, not the average.

I mean, there is something that you should consider that the last reduction in the interest rate was at the end of December of the last year. That impact was not captured in the fourth quarter.

It will be reflected in the first quarter of this year. And that effect runs for the rest of the year.

So probably that would explain what you're saying. But we are maintaining the NIM sensitivity in our forecast and in our guidance without change.

Yuri Fernandes

No, no. Super clear.

Just a second one on another topic, asset quality, just going back to Ernesto's questions on this. When we go to your new NPL formation, your new Stage 3 formation putting all together, right, the NPLs and the higher write-offs this quarter, it was a very good formation.

It was lower. Just checking, like could we have hopes that maybe there could be a surprise on this because I think Edgardo mentioned before that you had very few cases going to Stage 3 this quarter.

So just checking if there was something specific you did something different on renegotiations, reprofile of debt and this explain or sale of portfolio because it was a good number on formation. And when I look to your guidance, the guidance implies 0.8%, 1% cost of risk, slightly higher NPL.

So just trying to understand if there was any kind of a one-off in the new NPL, new Stage 3 formation for the fourth quarter.

Edgardo del Rincón Gutiérrez

Thank you, Yuri. Actually, no, what we saw in the fourth quarter is a reduction in the balance of Stage 3 loans and the write-off that we did is preparing us to, let's say, to clean up the portfolio.

Our criteria is always those loans with low probability of recovery. We'd rather write off them and of course, continue on the recovery actions.

But the level that we have at the end of the fourth quarter, let's say, is a more normalized level of NPL. And we expect to be around those levels during that year.

As I mentioned before, during 2025, we have several important but isolated cases from different sectors that transition to Stage 3. And during the fourth quarter, we didn't see any important case.

Of course, that could happen in '26. We don't have, in our view, any important case at this moment.

But we feel well with the 0.8% to 1% that is a more -- also more regular or normal level of cost of risk for the bank. So of course, the -- as we transition and grow more the SME portfolio and the consumer portfolio that normally have higher NPLs, that could change in time.

But with the guidance that we are providing, we feel very comfortable.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Eric Ito.

Eric Ito

This is Eric Ito from Bradesco BBI. I have 2 here on my side as well.

The first one, I'd like to touch basically on a more strategic point here on your new sales force structure. So you are deploying a lot -- investing a lot.

You have this plan of 2030 of 20 branches. So I just want to get a bit sense for, let's say, beyond 2026, 2027, what can we think about efficiency here if that should be one of the points that could continue pressuring OpEx going forward?

So this is my first one, and then I can ask my second later.

Edgardo del Rincón Gutiérrez

If we want to have a good efficiency ratio and a good ROE, the best strategy that we can follow is to grow the loan portfolio. That's why we decided to increase the business units and sales force of the bank at the end of the fourth quarter.

So as I mentioned already, we are adding 4 regional directors for the corporate segment in Mexico, Mexico City, Guadalajara, and Monterrey. And also the SME centers, we are very happy with the results we are having.

Each SME center has more than MXN 1 billion in loans. And as I mentioned, is dedicated to a segment, let's say, with loan sizes between MXN 30 million to MXN 100 million.

The idea for the following 4, 5 years is to get to 2030 with more than 20 SME centers. We have 8 to date.

So we are developing, let's say, a new strategy with new business units to attend that segment that is very, very profitable. But in the corporate area, we have a lot of room to grow.

Our market share in commercial loans portfolio is a little bit more than 6%. So we continue with huge opportunity to attract new customers.

So that is the idea. Regarding branches, during 2025, we opened 9 branches.

And we already have 10 branches that is I'm completely sure we're going to open this year. That number could increase up to 15 if we have the right location, et cetera.

So those, let's say, new branches are already approved, but the number of new branches is between 10 to 15 this year. And the idea for the following years is to continue with a similar number of about 10 to 15 branches.

So the bank has a lot of opportunity to grow, and we need to grow also our branches and our bankers, et cetera, to capture that opportunity.

Joaquín Domínguez Cuenca

Just to complement in the efficiency ratio side, we -- in our projections, we made the exercise considering the maximum number of branches and SME centers to open. So they will not surprise us in terms that we will be expanding more than we budget.

So there is no downside risk in terms of not delivering the guidance in terms of expenses.

Eric Ito

Okay. Super clear.

And then my second one is just maybe a follow-up here, especially on the strategy to grow SMEs, which is a portfolio that you are investing a lot. How can we think about your portfolio mix?

Currently, you have 50% of your book in corporate and 29% in SMEs. I don't know if you guys have a target that you could share with us, but I feel like we can continue having this much higher CAGR on SMEs.

Edgardo del Rincón Gutiérrez

Yes. With the internal definition of SMEs, we have an SME portfolio or more than MXN 40 billion.

That is important because, I mean, we are growing very well. But the margin that we have in that segment is much better than in the corporate segment.

It's about 1.5% more margin in the loan book. But more important than that, it is easier to bring the customer and to engage the customer to all the rest of the services regarding cash management, FX, et cetera.

So the revenue coming from that portfolio proportionally is very, very important. So that is the, I would say, the main segment for the bank.

And I believe with these SME centers, we are putting in place a competitive advantage of BanBajío, we feel that the business model that we are implementing is working very, very well. Then that's why we are accelerating the number of SME centers in the following years.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Neha Agarwala.

Neha Agarwala

This is Neha Agarwala from HSBC. First one on the loan growth, which stands out as a bit on the higher side, especially when compared to some of the peer numbers that we have seen.

What is the expectation in terms of USMCA agreement? In your budgeting, when do you expect that to be finalized as that could be a kicker in terms of loan growth?

I'll go to my second question after.

Edgardo del Rincón Gutiérrez

Thank you, Neha. Of course, loan demand has been affected by the uncertainty coming from the USMCA agreement and the negotiation that will happen during this first semester.

In the loan growth, we are forecasting a more conservative growth during the first semester and a better second semester. So that is implied in the business plan that we are guiding.

But our scenario is that we reach an agreement with the U.S. We believe that dependency that we have in those 2 markets is very important.

And the best scenario for both countries is to reach an agreement. So that is the best scenario.

Neha Agarwala

Okay. My second question is on the branch expansion that you've mentioned.

With all of this investment to drive up the loan growth, could you compare the NIM profile for the large corporate segment and the SME segment? Because if the mix shifts more towards the SMEs, how in the next 2, 3 years should that impact your NIMs and your cost of risk?

And given the expansion plan, it seems like the cost growth will probably be on an elevated level, not just in '26, but in '27, '28 as well, which could pressure the cost-to-income ratio. So how should we think about the evolution of cost-to-income ratio in the next 2, 3 years given the expansion plan?

Edgardo del Rincón Gutiérrez

We don't have the NIM by segment at this moment. What I can tell you is the margin in the loan book is better, but also the mix of deposits has a better margin.

And also nonfinancial income person at the size of the customer or the loan is more important. So profitability is better.

The cross sale ratio in SMEs is more than 5 products and services. And the corporate is a little bit more than 3.2.

So as a result, let's say, the SME is much more profitable than the corporate segment.

Neha Agarwala

Perfect. And cost to income, if you could give some color on that, the impact on cost to income and how should it trend given the cost growth should be slightly higher?

Joaquín Domínguez Cuenca

Neha, well, that cost to income maybe is one of the most important drivers we follow month by month. And what we saw in the last quarter is a quite increase in the cost of risk, but also an improvement in the generation of net interest income.

So what we are considering for this year is that the growth on noninterest income that is well supported by a very diversified lines of products that we are offering to our clients will support the increase on expenses, even the reduction of the NIM. So we feel that we can very well supported and control the efficiency ratio due mainly to the growth of the net interest income.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Flores.

Brian Flores

Brian Flores from Citi. I have 2 questions.

The first one is on your NIM sensitivity because the cost of funding as a percentage of TIIE has been improving, and you've mentioned the efforts you have made on the asset side. I just wanted to maybe understand how you're positioning yourself, not for 2026 because we understand what is likely to happen.

But the sensitivity for further ahead, I mean, when maybe Bajio becomes a bit more stable in the policy rate. Would you be willing by design to reduce the sensitivity for further cycles?

I just wanted to understand. And also, I think in the last call -- last 2 calls, maybe you have mentioned a sustainable ROE of high teens.

So do you think this guidance actually shows the, let's say, structural level ROE where we should see Bajio going forward? And then if I may, just a second one on GDP growth.

In your presentation, I think you have 1.3% as a base case here. One of your peers was a bit more optimistic maybe on tailwinds from the World Cup and internal consumption in Mexico.

Do you see if a scenario more similar to them, which is around 1.6% in terms of GDP plays out that there is upside on the loan growth side?

Joaquín Domínguez Cuenca

Regarding the NIM sensitivity, what we are seeing is that we do not have a specific target of NIM sensitivity because that by itself do not necessarily reflects an increase in the income or the value of the bank. What it is important for us is to maintain a healthy growth even if the NIM have a reduction, it doesn't matter if the volume of business is higher.

So it is quite difficult to say that we have a specific objective of reducing the NIM sensitivity because if we just have the idea to reduce it to 10 basis points, it probably will have high cost to make -- or to create that reduction and would reduce the net income. So it's not directly the relation between lower NIM sensitivity and higher income.

So our focus is increased total income and margin income despite what happens with the NIM at itself. So what we are focusing is in improving the mix of assets and deposits, but not having a specific target of NIM sensitivity.

Edgardo del Rincón Gutiérrez

Regarding -- thank you, Brian. Regarding ROE, as you saw, we are considering here an additional decrease in rates of 50 basis points to get to 6.50%.

And we believe we are getting closer to the floor in rates with all the geopolitical situation and inflation in Mexico, we feel that we are getting close to the floor. And with that, sensitivity will be less important.

We are sure that we feel comfortable in providing a sustainable ROE in high teens that is reflected in the guidance. And regarding GDP, we consider the average of the analysts.

Actually, that bank that you are mentioning is one of the highest forecast in GDP growth, but the median of the different analysts in that analysis is 1.3%. Of course, if we can have a potential additional growth, more GDP growth that will help a lot in growing the loan portfolio, of course.

Brian Flores

And just, I mean, do you have any sensitivity in terms of, let's say, this could add 4 bps to your base case scenario here in terms of loan growth?

Edgardo del Rincón Gutiérrez

If you can repeat, it was the transmission connection. You can repeat, Brian, please?

Brian Flores

Sure, sure. No problem.

No, just wondering if you have a sensitivity measure as to the multiplier. So for example, if we have some upside risks here on GDP, where could we see your loan growth compared to your base case scenario?

Edgardo del Rincón Gutiérrez

Actually, the multiple that we are using already in the guidance with a GDP growth of 1.3% is higher than previous years. And what we are planning to do is to gain market share and to bring more customers.

So of course, with additional growth in the economy, that will help. But it's maybe difficult to forecast at this moment an upside opportunity regarding that.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Ricardo Buchpiguel.

Ricardo Buchpiguel

This is Ricardo Buchpiguel from BTG Pactual. Just have one question here.

How do you see the competitive landscape in the corporate lending environment evolving? We see that BanBajío and other peers have been expanding a lot of their branches network you also have Banamex, is a big bank in Mexico came out of a change in control and eventually could become a bit more aggressive.

And at the same time, as we have been discussing in this call, you have a lot of uncertainty mainly in the first half of the year because of this USMCA deal, right? So my question here, with a lot of uncertainty regarding how much the size of the market will grow and a lot of banks including ourselves increasing the number of branches and people, are you concerned in any way for potential pressures in rates?

Edgardo del Rincón Gutiérrez

I believe that is a situation that always happen in this market. Competition is important.

Of course, we try to compete more with service than with price. Of course, we need to provide a competitive price to the customer.

But our business model is more to be really close to the customer, have a very good communication with them, understand very well the opportunity and risk that they are seen and try to help them in all the cycles. So -- but competition is huge.

And I believe with the potential IPO of Banamex and they recover, let's say, the strategy that they used to have several years ago, competition will increase. But I mean, that is always happening.

Normally in the corporate segment, we are always competing with at least one bank. We have less competition in the SME segment.

But I mean, that is part of the regular scenario in this market. And I believe it's good for the market evolution and also for customers.

Ricardo Buchpiguel

That's very clear. And just one quick follow-up.

If you look at the last few months, not only in Q4, but a little bit in Q1, have you seen any changes in terms of competition, the pressures on rates or is overall stable?

Edgardo del Rincón Gutiérrez

It's a huge competition environment. And I believe the fourth quarter was similar with the rest of the previous quarters during 2025.

And of course, all the banks are trying to grow and to bring the best customers possible to those banks. So -- but I feel that the environment is stable.

It's the same.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Lindsey Shema.

Lindsey Marie Shema

Lindsey Shema here from Goldman Sachs. I just have a quick question following up on the increase in write-offs in the quarter.

Given the increase in write-offs this quarter, do you see any impacts from the change in regulation to the ability to be able to deduct write-offs from your taxes, and that's why you moved them ahead? Or is that completely separate?

Edgardo del Rincón Gutiérrez

Thank you. We're expecting really the same level.

If we consider write-off of 2025 plus the reserves associated with past due loans minus recoveries, we are talking about MXN 2.8 billion during 2025. And actually, that was the same number for '24.

For '25 and with this NPL and cost of risk that we are expecting, we could have a small reduction in write-off during 2026. Regarding the new regulation, it will have an impact in the P&L, but will delay the capacity of the bank to deduct those write-offs.

It will take at least 2 years starting in the moment that we start the legal action, let's say, to recover that loan. In terms of small loans lower than 30,000 UDIs is going to be 1 year.

So it to have the P&L really, but the deduction of those write-offs will take longer.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Federico Galassi.

Federico Galassi

Federico Galassi from The Rohatyn Group. Two questions, if I may.

The first one is last year, in the last part of the year was very vocal from the government that could be some caps on fees. I don't know if you have any comment on that.

And the second one, maybe you mentioned that, but if you can repeat me what is the Mexican peso that are using in your guidance from the loan growth?

Edgardo del Rincón Gutiérrez

Thank you, Federico. The only initiative that is on the table today is regarding interchange fees.

There is not a decision yet, but it's an important reduction in interchange fees. Actually, the plan that we are proposing today to the market is not including any impact of this.

But the revenues coming from interchange fees represent about 1.8% of total revenues of the bank. And as you saw in the initiative, they are putting a cap in interchange.

That means that the discount rate that we are -- that the banks are charging, let's say, to the merchant, that acquiring bank will pay less interchange to the issuer. So on that regard, our acquiring business represent about 3% of total revenue.

So that could imply in the short term, a benefit for the bank because of that difference, let's say, in percentage of revenue. Nevertheless, we see this initiative as negative for the market.

And let's see what is going to be the final decision regarding that. But with the initiative as it is today, it has a potential positive impact in our numbers.

Joaquín Domínguez Cuenca

Federico, this is Joaquin Dominguez. Regarding the second question, we have approximately $1,450 in loan portfolio.

And what we are expecting is FX rate pretty close to MXN 80 per dollar at the end of the year. And that would imply a very marginal impact in the valuation of that loan portfolio.

MXN 18.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Geraghty.

Andrew Geraghty

This is Andrew Geraghty from Morgan Stanley. Just a small question to clarify.

When you guys said that you plan to open between 10 to 15 branches this year, does that consider the regional corporate banking offices and the SME centers? Or is that separate?

Just wanted to clarify.

Edgardo del Rincón Gutiérrez

Thank you, Andrew. And it's separate branches, it's that regular branch to make transactions and to sell products and services and the SME centers and the corporate regional offices are business units mainly with bankers to attend those segments.

So it's completely different.

Operator

Our next question comes from Brian Flores.

Brian Flores

Just very quickly here, I was checking here my notes. I think one of the upside risks you mentioned here was probably a recovery of some loans, which I understand.

And I think you mentioned sales of assets. Could you just give us examples as to what were you meaning by these sales of assets?

Joaquín Domínguez Cuenca

Brian, as we have mentioned in several cases, we used to take warranties in most of our collaterals in more of the loans. So during the years, not specifically last year because it takes many years to recover assets.

We have some disclosure assets. We should have a MXN 0 valuation in the balance.

And if we sold those assets, we will have immediately an income due to that sales. And also, there are other cases also thanks to the guaranty collaterals that we are negotiation recovering before going the next step in the judicial process.

So we have some cases in the pipeline in order to see that we can affirm that we will have some recoveries in this year due to the advanced process we have for those recoveries.

Operator

We have not received any further questions at this point. So I would now like to hand the call back over for some closing remarks.

Rodrigo Marimon Bernales

Thank you very much, everyone, for joining us today. We remain available to address any follow-up questions via e-mail and any meeting request.

We look forward to speaking to you again in April 2026 when we release our first quarter 2026 results. Thank you very much, and have a nice day.

Operator

That concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.