Unknown Attendee
Hi. Good afternoon, and good morning to everyone, depending where you are located.
We are very proud here to be today to present our strategic plan to 2031. I'm joined today by our Chairman, Mr.
Paolo Ciocca; Mr. Paolo Gallo, our CEO; Pier Lorenzo Dell’Orco, CEO of Italgas Reti and Gianfranco Amoroso that you all know, our CFO.
I leave now the floor to the Chairman.
Paolo Ciocca
So good morning and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for attending today's presentation of Italgas 2025-2031 strategic plan. There are moments in our company's history when progress isn't just represented by financial or industrial results, but rather by recognition of its deepest identity.
And by the way, Italgas' history is not at all a short one. This said by, as you well know, a young newcomer to the company.
Italgas identity is the cornerstone around which the group has developed in recent years, the cornerstone of an exciting journey that has seen the group establish itself as a global benchmark for innovation, model transformation, anticipation of the future. Today, 1 year after the previous strategic plan, we can say that our future mapping worked out well and ahead of schedule.
The group is further strengthened by its international leadership and has established itself also in terms of size as the leader in gas distribution in Europe. But it is not just a question of numbers.
It is a question of vision and responsibility and the ability to drive energy transformation as enablers of decarbonization. Our commitment is clear.
We want industrial innovation with energy transition. We create networks that don't just distribute energy, but also enable molecules to change their nature from fossil fuel to renewables, from natural gas to biomethane, hydrogen and synthetic methane.
We believe in technological neutrality as a guiding principle. This means evaluating all available solutions, building a resilient, competitive energy system that is ready to meet the needs of family, businesses and institutions.
In these recent years, we have demonstrated that the energy transition can be substantive, a substantive project. We have done so by extending and digitizing our networks, developing a market around the various areas, let's say, uses of hydrogen in the network and focusing on research and development.
Our aim is to make things happen. The plan we are about to present to you today is at the heart of this new phase and outlines how we intend to remain true to our nature, continuously evolving, faithful that our vision of the future of energy and our values because Italgas is changing, growing and expanding, at the same time, it keeps its 188 years old distinction in Italy, a force that builds a real progress and generates value at the service of communities and territories.
Now let's go to the [indiscernible] and let me welcome Paolo and its leadership team. Thank you.
[Presentation]
Paolo Gallo
Good afternoon, everyone, and good morning for the person that are connected from abroad. It is for me a great pleasure to be here to present this strategic plan that represent the first strategic plan after the acquisition of 2i Rete Gas.
In this plan, we are setting a commitment that has never taken in the whole history of Italgas, a clear sign of confidence that we have for the future and the vision that we have for the future about our infrastructure. And we feel that today, we are going to share the vision with you, the investment, the technology and the people that will make this plan happen, shaping the energy of the future.
But let me start with the where we stand today. One year ago, we announced the acquisition of 2i Rete Gas, the largest -- the second largest gas DSO in Italy.
And we have created with such acquisition, the largest European DSO. As you can see, those are the numbers.
We serve nearly 13 million customers in the gas distribution. We serve directly and indirectly 6.3 million customers in Italy and Greece.
We manage nearly 160,000 kilometers of network. But moreover than that, we do all this activity, thanks to an incredible 6,400 employees that is the result of the combining of the 2 company.
7 months ago, we closed the deal, and now we wanted to show you the progress that we have made in such a short period of time. At the same time, we want to show you and share with you our vision for the next 7 years.
Let's take -- show you about our strategic vision. We want to maintain our leadership in innovation, in technology, in digital transformation, maximizing the value for all our stakeholders.
The vision is built around, as I said, innovation, AI transformation, energy transition and with a focus, a never-ending focus on operational efficiency. Three business area, you know very well that they are gas distribution in Italy and Greece, which remain in our core business.
Water service, a sector where our digital capability that we can apply from our experience in gas distribution can make a difference. Energy efficiency that we feel it has been a little bit forgotten, but it's a key element for the energy transition, and we strongly believe on that.
And on top of that, we think we can take a great advantage from unlocking all the possibilities and opportunities coming from the massive application of [ AI ] to our processes, our assets and our way in which we manage the company. But before going on, let me take for a few moments, a look at the past.
I think the past 9 years at Italgas has been extremely exciting and successful. And I think it is worth spending a few words about what we have achieved, where we stand today and which is our ambition.
We have invested up to the end of 2024, nearly EUR 7.5 billion growing the RAB up to EUR 10 billion before the acquisition of 2i Rete Gas. We delivered an impressive OpEx reduction, minus 40% since 2018.
We distributed more than EUR 2 billion dividends to our shareholders. At the same time, we were able to maintain a solid financial structure.
And we have done all of that reducing our carbon footprint, reducing our energy consumption. Then 2025 make the difference.
We acquired the second largest DSO in Italy, and we become the first DSO in Europe. We were already the first DSO in terms of innovation and technology, not in terms of size.
Now we cover also the size parts. And we achieved in Italy a market share of 55% -- now we are planning that is the ambition to invest in the next 7 years, EUR 16.5 billion, including the acquisition.
That includes, of course, the acquisition of 2i Rete Gas. And we expect that our EBITDA and our EPS will grow at double-digit numbers, starting from 2024 based.
And the financial structure, as Gianfranco will show you later, is very strong, very robust, and we start deleveraging already in 2028. But let me move more on the -- what we see the scenario of the gas for the future.
I remember that in the industry, I was probably one of the first person to talk about the energy trilemma. And I remember that I was talking about that in London a few years ago during an interview that I had with Bloomberg.
At the time, nobody were talking about the energy trilemma. Since then, as you can see from the trilemma today, something has changed, has shifted.
After the Ukraine invasion, the focus was to guarantee the energy supply, security of supply was at the top. And since then, since 2022, I think the situation in Europe has significantly changed.
Most of the country have been able to get rid of the Russian gas and be able to build a different supplier, different supply flow. Today, the focus has shifted to the cost of energy.
And the cost of energy has become get the major attention of all the European countries, not only for industry because industry means competition, being able to compete at the world level, but also for the end customers, for the residential. And I think one of the solution is the use of the gas infrastructure.
DSO is part, is the heart of the solution. And there is a growing recognition that the trilemma cannot be solved just using ideological position, but a more pragmatic, a more neutral approach from a technological point of view will bring the solution.
It's not going to be easy. It's not going to be linear, but that's the only way in which we can solve a complex problem like the energy.
And I think -- and we feel that the gas network bringing in the future, today in the future, renewable gases will help to solve the trilemma from a cost point of view and security point of view. Let me show you some numbers, very interesting one.
The evolution of the energy price and the gas price in Italy before the Ukraine invasion and today. As you can see, the cost of energy, the gas in terms of euro per megawatt hour has gone back more or less, not yet, but it's not very far from the price that we had before the Ukrainian invasion.
We cannot say the same for the electricity. Electricity price is 3x the gas price.
And that makes even more difficult to think about electrification in certain sector. And if you couple that with the fact that we are going to see in the coming months and years, an increased demand of electricity, think about AI data-driven consumption, then will pose even more problem.
The gap may even become bigger, not only, but if you think about what happened in Spain just before summer, more renewable you put in the system and you need to recover the rigidity that the renewable put in the energy system because renewable, it's production is not capacity. And in this context, gas will continue to be in different form, crucial to maintain an energy system stable, efficient, secure with a cost that is affordable by everybody.
And we -- I brought you an example of the day-by-day life of the life of ourselves when we need to face certain decision to change, for example, a very traditional gas boiler for the heating system. And we made this comparison based on the number that you saw with no subsidies.
That means that we are comparing apple with apple. 3 options: one that I consider probably the best effective one, very simple, high-efficiency boiler gas.
The second one is heat pumps with limited modification of the heating system. The third one is probably the one that the ideological people will say that is the best solution.
Heat pumps change all your heating system, put what is the underfloor coils, you will be happy. For 25 years, you will be happy because it will take 25 years to pay back the investments.
What does it mean that by -- in 25 years, you will probably change everything. So you will never get there.
And that is when you compare apple with apple with no subsidies. But there is the solution.
And the solution part of the solution is let's go back to what the European Commission made it years ago after Ukraine's invasion that probably has been forgotten for a long time. That is the REPowerEU.
They clearly identify 3 path in order to reduce the dependence on Russia and at the same time, to reduce also the cost. That is the development of biomethane, the development of hydrogen production and importation and the last one, increase the energy efficiency in our real estate activities in everything in our industry, everywhere.
Why it has been forgotten? Because it's too difficult, again, -- that's the problem.
But that is the solution because biomethane is something that is today available is competitive. Hydrogen, we will talk in a moment.
And energy efficiency is the other area where there is a lack of interest, but it's -- again, it's one of the most effective tools that we have in order to reduce energy consumption and reduce our cost. If I look -- if I take a look at the same situation in Italy, what we can say is that biomethane is a very high potential area.
Many studies and our evidence about connection request to show that we will have an increase of biomethane production as an average by 50% every single year through 2030. That will let us reaching the goal of 5 billion cubic meters of production that represent about 7% to 8% of the total demand of gas in Italy.
And there are positive signal. One is the latest auction that was made about awarding the grants from our resilience recovery plant to upgrade the existing biogas into biomethane.
Hydrogen. Hydrogen is let me say, a longer-term opportunity because of the cost.
But I think we should continue to invest in research and development to research in the use of hydrogen. Our plant in Sardinia, Pier Lorenzo will talk to you about that.
I around, it's a clear demonstration that we can build an ecosystem that is based on hydrogen. Is it competitive?
Not yet, but still, there are very nice signal about that competition. Think about that the energy conversion into hydrogen is 55% in a small plant.
So if you scale up the plant, you can even reach higher efficiency. And finally, the e-Methane that is for us and for Europe is probably the new frontier.
For Japan, it's not. Japan is testing significantly e-Methane.
See, e-Methane as the solution for gas supply in Japan. It's the combination of CO2 capture with hydrogen.
So what I'm telling you with this example is that with a pragmatic approach, you find many solutions that can bring you security of supply, energy transition and cost of the energy altogether as a solution. And the fact that the gas will continue to be there today, fossil, tomorrow, renewable is also shown by this graph.
After the shock in 2022, we have already seen some recovery in '24. And if I look at the first semester of '25 in respect of '24, we saw an increase in 6% -- and we have just closed the numbers at the end of September, and we look at what we injected in our network in respect of the previous year and the growth is still close to 6% also at the end of September '25.
And as I said before, more electrification expands, more renewable in the picture and the more we need the molecule to compensate the rigidity of the electrification. But let me now move and give a quick outlook about the progress that we made on the 2i Rete Gas integration.
You remember, I don't want to go through all the story about the different steps, but I wanted just to stay on the fact that 1st of July, we merged Italgas Reti with 2i Rete Gas. And I think that has been an incredible achievement, 90 days to complete that process.
And then to complete the all 2i Rete Gas acquisition, we need to satisfy also the mandatory request by the antitrust. As you know, that has been recently closed, let me say, the agreement with the 4 buyers, the 600,000 redelivery point that were requested to be put on sale, we received 12 acceptable from a price floor point of view offers for a total of less than 250 redelivery point, which were considered also acceptable from the antitrust point of view in terms of requirement that the buyers should have.
The process will involve the disposal of the delivery point together with the personnel, the systems and all the assets that are needed to operate this redelivery point, this network. The RAB value associated is EUR 218 million.
The overall price that is paid will be paid is set at EUR 253 million, significant premium paid over the RAB. We expect the closing to be happened before the end of the first quarter of 2026.
But of course, it will depend about also the buyer. Regarding what has not been sold, so the remaining 350,000 redelivery point, we don't have to do any second round of disposal on this redelivery point in this network will be applied the so-called soft remedies that will be applied when the tender process of the award of this asset will take place.
So -- but let me say, I wanted to share with you another point that is we always said and I have already said at the beginning that we are -- that we are the best in our industry. But I wanted to bring you data facts to show you that our statement is true.
So we made a comparison with our international peers. And we have looked at the different topics that for us makes the difference.
So smart meters, we are close to 100%. If you look around Europe and worldwide, there is no one that is passing 50% of the installation.
And the majority are below that number significantly. Network digitization, this is where the gap is huge.
there is no one, no one that has made such an upgrade of the network. And when I say network digitized means that I can control remotely everything that I can manage the network remotely everything.
Pier Lorenzo will tell you more in detail what does it mean that. And on top of that, we are going to implement the AI transformation in which we see some other example.
But to me, to be extremely effective and to be able to adopt on a massive -- at a massive level AI, you need to have a network fully digitized and you need to have a collection of billions of data in order to be able to really leverage the application of AI. On the biomethane, that buys from country to country.
We know that there are other countries that are better positioned than us. But I think Italy will recover this gap very soon.
On the network ready for hydrogen. If I look at our plant in Sardinia, we can say that our network is 100% ready to accept 2% or 20% of hydrogen.
In fact, we have a protocol with the Ministry of Industry and Energy to scale up the 2% that is the minimum up to 20%. If I look at the average of the network in Italy, then we can say that 80% is ready for 20% blending.
But I also can say that by the end of the plan, we will have 100% of our network ready for a blending of hydrogen up to 20%. Let me go through some more significant progress we have made in the months since the acquisition of 2i Rete Gas very quickly, but I think extremely representative of our ability to make things happen.
On the operational point of view, we have fully reorganized our territorial footprint, redesigning our territorial model, reducing the area of overlapping. At the same time, we have closed 19 office.
We have reduced our fleet car by 13%, thanks to the to the synergy that we are starting to extract. The core of the activity has been the IT.
We moved 1 petabyte of data, 1 petabyte of data. I don't know how many 0 they have it.
So forgive me for that, in 90 days with no problem at all. And I think that makes -- that show our -- let me say, the strength of our IT infrastructure in dealing with such a large number.
We have started in-sourcing activity, and I start mentioning Picarro. We have the largest fleet in the world of Picarro machines.
We know how to manage, we know how to drive them, we know how to use them. We immediately stopped the third-party contract that 2i Rete Gas had, and we immediately start in sourcing that as well as we started to in-source activity like the integrated supervision center and other ones with a termination of a number of contracts with third party.
And finally, we started to implement the digitization plan that we have for 2i Rete Gas. But let me start now to look at the numbers because I think you are here also not only to listen my and our vision, but also to see the numbers.
And I'm starting from the ones that you like most, synergies in cost and revenues. So I'm starting from the synergies from revenues.
From April, when we closed the acquisition, we had several working groups working together between Italgas and 2i Rete Gas, Ex-Ri-Rete Gas people in order to find out the area of synergies and to find out the area where we have to invest in order to upgrade the network to the level that we have in Italgas. And we find out that there are more investment that we expected that we presented to you last year, EUR 800 million.
And we find out that there are more up to EUR 900 million. At the same time, the revenue contribution from this additional investment moved from EUR 80 million to EUR 100 million at the end of the plan.
Just to mention some of the initiatives that are included in this EUR 900 million investment replacement, we find out that there are still some traditional meters in 2i Rete Gas network that are not be replaced. So that is the first thing that we started.
We will finish by early 2026. But then we find out all the area where we need to upgrade, not only upgrade the single equipment, but also changing, for example, the authorization system to our standard.
And based on that, we have a clear and detailed digitization plan that has already started and will deliver the EUR 900 million additional investment and the EUR 100 million additional revenue. But probably the most interesting one for you are the cost of synergy that you have already seen in our plan.
And I want to remind you that last year, some of you, I don't know if many of you or a few of you were very skeptical about our ability to reach the EUR 200 million. We raised the bar.
Now we are at EUR 250 million. And I think our history and our track record makes this number credible.
And how we find out this EUR 250 million over time, because, as I said, the working groups have been working for months, identifying which are the areas that we can improve, where we can extract value, when we can have synergies and we have a detailed plan for each of the activities. So we know also in terms of time frame when this synergy will happen.
And you can see in this graph, the previous plan in terms of time, in terms of value and the new plan in terms of time, in terms of value. So the upgrade was driven by a shift from an outside in to an inside in perspective.
And it clearly reflects an optimized. There are a lot of activity that will be in-sourced -- with our ambition to avoid any redundancy, there will be no redundancy in our plan.
There is no redundancy in our plan, but we will maximize in-sourcing, bringing inside the company what we feel are the core activity of the company and with the ambition to retain our top talent. We -- if you remember, last year, we were talking about 3 pillars of synergies, traditional digital and AI.
Well, during the activity of the working group, we realized that the first 2 pillars sometimes are crossing one to each other. So now you will see only 2 pillars, traditional and digital and AI.
And I promise to you that I will show you the time frame of the 2 categories, and I will show you and give you an example of what we are doing and what we will do. So the first one represent traditional and digital.
If you remember, the sum of the 2 last year were in the range of EUR 120 million, EUR 140 million. We gave you the range.
Now we are EUR 180 million. So the delta in the EUR 50 million that we are talking about are concentrated in this area.
The cost saving benefits related to such initiative will be fully visible already in 2025, some of them, a few of them, still they will be visible. And you have already noticed in the 9 months result that there are some cost savings that are coming from the synergies from the acquisition of 2i Rete Gas.
In '26 and '29, we will continue in-sourcing core activity. That is the main driver, including some example, authorization measurement, metrology inspection, emergency response service, those are core activity that we cannot leave to a third party.
And we will use digitization and AI to work on an approach that is applying the predictive maintenance. Supplier will be part of this effort.
Supplier base will be rationalized. We want our supplier to grow because we are a different company in terms of size with respect to the past, and we want to improve from a quality and economic point of view, the procurement condition.
This initiative combined together will let us achieving the majority of the EUR 180 million by 2028. And then in the last 3 years, we will see a massive rollout of our Nimbus smart meter, and we will complete the digitization of 2i Rete Gas network.
Regarding the AI, AI is a little bit more difficult in a sense that is from one side, the most exciting journey. From the other side is less predictable because we don't have any example, especially in our industry.
The numbers today is set at EUR 70 million and does not include any additional initiatives that may arise in the future, but have not been yet identified. We have tried to list for you some of the initiatives, some of the use case that we have already been working, we have been identified use case that we have identified for which we have started working on that.
These initiatives are expected to deliver most of the anticipated benefit over the next few years. Some examples, you can read it, AI-driven automatic scheduling algorithm, which allows to improve planning optimization, increase intervention sussection rate, taking into account external factor.
We have already developed, I have already mentioned to you a couple of times, a predictive algorithm for faulty smart meters that is capable to anticipate by a few days. The occurrence of faults, optimizing our intervention and reducing the penalty risk.
We have also identified AI opportunities also in the same IT. For example, we are implementing the first level end user support agentic automation for the IT system and application, very difficult to explain.
So don't ask me what is exactly meaning. But what I can tell you that these initiatives application has been recently awarded by Databricks that is a leading platform for data engineering.
We will use agentic AI also in the commercial activities in order to manage requests and claims reducing external cost and increasing our productivity. To do all that, we have set up AI rooms.
So you know that we have a digital factory. Well, now the digital factory is split into 50% is always devoted to develop digital application.
The remaining 50% is devoted to develop AI application, AI algorithms. So we are going to have not only digital rooms, but also AI rooms.
That is what we have already planned and that is covering the portion of the synergy that is evidenced that are underlying in this chart. For the remaining, so we are talking on a medium, long term, there are a number of use cases that we have already identified that will be approach later in the plan that regard virtual coach for productivity enhancement, basic drafting, so we'll touch the engineering activities, autonomous network management, smart meter activation, remote smart meter activation.
And finally, to use the autonomous driving for leak detection. In that case, we need to have a policy approval, but I can tell you that we have already started working with the Politecnico the University, Politecnico di Milano and di Torino in order to have the first prototype of autonomous driving for gas leakage research next year.
It is important to highlight that this transformation will be also an opportunity for our personnel to change their skills to reskill and upskill and move from low added value activity to, let me call it, AI governance that is much more interesting than not doing the low value-added activity. Now I will move in the numbers.
I have already anticipated the total investment for the plan period, including the acquisition already done of 2i Rete Gas is EUR 16.5 billion, plus 5.7%. If we take out -- if we exclude the acquisition of 2i Rete Gas and the tenders, the increase is 10%, more than 10%.
In order to facilitate the comparison, we have reclassified -- last year plan, you remember that to avoid to share publicly what was our expectation about antitrust disposal, we merged the 2 numbers together, tenders and disposal. So now we took out the disposal.
So now the tenders that you see are the gross tender or gross tender are the tenders in order to facilitate the comparison. And you can see that the 2 numbers of 2i are different, are higher in this plan, not because we pay more, but in fact, the reality is that we pay less than expected, but we retain more assets than not the one requested by the antitrust.
So the EUR 4.8 billion, EUR 4.9 billion that is the explanation. Regarding the other area, the driver and Pier Lorenzo will tell you in a moment, is the gas distribution in Italy, an increase of EUR 1 billion.
Greece remains stable in terms of EUR 1 billion investment as well as the other 2 activities, water and energy efficiency. Finally, the tenders, 1 year has passed and 1 year has been, let me say, another year of delay.
That's normal. I mean that is common to the last 10 plans that we presented to you.
So nothing new. And that is the reason why we reduced the number from EUR 1.7 billion to EUR 1.5 billion.
That number accounts for less than 10% of the overall investment. If we look at different perspective, that is also interesting, I would like to ask your attention on the right part of the slide, it's interesting to look about the different areas.
Largest amount of investment is allocated roughly for 40% of the total on network development and upgrade of the network in Italy and Greece, nearly 20%, 19% of digitization and AI. I would like to ask you if you know any other gas DSO that is investing such significant amount of money in digital and AI.
And finally, Water and ESCo accounts for 5%, while tenders account for 9%. Trying again to give you a full picture of our investment plan.
Our effort is focused on 3 main pillars. As we said before, network development upgrade and maintenance.
We are leveraging our scale. We are leveraging our skill in order to move to a predictive maintenance that is driving and will drive our CapEx plan to improve reliability and performance of the network.
The second pillar is asset digitization. We need to bring the 2i Rete Gas at the same level of our network as well as AI transformation.
That is where we have the bigger difference from our competitors. There is where we have the big expertise in terms of network automation, in terms of digital transformation and in the coming years in terms of the AI application.
The third pillar referred to the other initiative, water and energy efficiency. Here, we think that extending all the innovation that we have brought to the gas distribution into water and energy efficiency will make the difference.
We'll make the difference because on the water sector, we will see significant reduction of leaks as well as gas, but gas is already very low. And then we will enhance infrastructure resilience in gas and water.
We will improve operational efficiency. You have already seen some results, reducing energy consumption and dispatching green gases.
These are the things that are taking together all these activities. But now I will go into more details, and I will leave the floor to Pier Lorenzo, who will talk to you about gas distribution in Italy and Greece, please.
Pier Lorenzo
Thank you, Paolo. I'm really excited to be today on this stage to present the investment plan on gas distribution in Italy and Greece of Italgas, which is the largest in our long history.
And let's start with the biggest chunk of the plan, which is dedicated to our core network investments in Italy and in Greece. It accounts for EUR 7.7 billion, and we will develop the plan along 3 lines.
starting from repurposing of the grids, basically by replacement of older assets driven by predictive maintenance and active leak search through our cutting-edge technology, Picarro, which you already know. But on top of that, we will invest on grid development and extension basically to execute the commitments that we have undertaken as a result of the already awarded tenders and in Greece for the extension of the existing grid, driven by the requests for new connections.
Furthermore, we plan to invest more on top of that as a result of the awarding of new tenders. And last but not least, we will invest on the infrastructure enhancement with several initiatives ranging from the installation of small-scale LNG plants in Sardinia and again in Greece, development with -- of reverse flow plants, innovative reverse flow plants, which will help us debottlenecking the existing grid to promote biomethane connections and power-to-gas pilot project plant, which has been already put in operation just a few weeks ago.
Let's deep dive into the investments that we are planning in Italy, the organic investments dedicated to network. So these investments accounts for EUR 5.4 billion, and they include network development and centralized investment.
They do not include new tenders. Amongst others, we will invest to execute the commitments that we have undertaken as a result of the 8 items that we have already been awarded all across Italy, plus 2 additional items tenders that we expect to be awarded in a very short period of time.
This piece of plan accounts for about EUR 1 billion, and it underpins about 2,000 kilometers of networks in terms of both extensions, new networks and repurposing of existing networks. Along with that, we will invest -- continue to invest in Sardinia, where we have completed 100% of the network, more than 1,000 kilometers.
We will invest basically to convert the large cities of the region, namely Oristano, Sassari, Cagliari and Nuoro by 2026. We will do that by deploying against small-scale LNG plants where the cities cannot be connected directly to a methane pipeline.
Moving to the tenders. As of today, in Italy, all in all, we can record 11 officially awarded tenders -- and there is still a long road to do to the end of this process.
We have still 166 tenders to go. So this year, as always, we have reviewed the schedule of the tender based on the actual progress status of the process.
We believe strongly that the tenders represent a great opportunity for Italgas to further consolidate the markets. We can leverage on our current features to be best positioned to win the tenders.
We have a strong track record. We have recorded 8 wins out of 11 tenders, but I should say out of 9 tenders because we took part to 9 tenders out of the 11.
So the track record is really very successful. And all in all, with this plan, we are devoting EUR 1.5 billion to the new tenders, which will result in an increase in delivery points that we project to step up to EUR 2 million by the end of the plan horizon.
Moving to Greece. As Paolo anticipated, we're basically confirming EUR 1 billion of investments.
In this area, the investment will be dedicated primarily to the extension of the network driven by the request for new connections. This will result in the realization of 2,500 kilometers of new networks with an increase in terms of RAB up to EUR 1.3 billion by the end of the plan horizon.
And in parallel, a sharp increase in terms of number of users, stepping up from more than 600,000 to nearly 1 million redelivery points by the end of the plan with a CAGR of plus 6.5%. Let's talk about green gases.
We confirm our full commitment in promoting green gases and in particularly biomethane and hydrogen. Concerning biomethane, we can record as of today, 11 connections of biomethane plants to our networks.
We had only just 3 years ago. So this is a sharp increase.
But what's more, we have more than 38 new projects of connections under development. What's more, we have installed 3 reverse flow plants.
This is a very innovative type of plants, which is vital to debottleneck the local distribution grids in order to promote the full injection of biomethane into the grids. So all in all, we are projecting by the end of 2030 to increase the production capacity of biomethane injected into Italgas grids up to 1.2 billion cubic meters per year.
Talking about hydrogen. We have inaugurated just a few weeks ago, the hydrogen hyround project.
This is a very innovative project, basically a power-to-gas hydrogen plant. It is in Sardinia, near Calgary, and it stands out as of today due to its very high efficiency, 55%.
But what's more, it is really a showcase of the entire supply chain of hydrogen, starting from the production of real green hydrogen from a photovoltaic plant nearby, which produces the electricity needed to generate the hydrogen. Then we have storage.
And then we have the demonstration of various end users of the hydrogen. We have a refueling station for vehicles over there.
We have a pipeline for direct connection to a nearby industrial site. And the most distinctive feature, we are blending the hydrogen together with natural gas to feed the local gas distribution network of the city of H2.
And we plan in the next 12 months to increase the percentage of blending starting from the current 2% of hydrogen up to 20% of hydrogen. This will make hyround project a unique site all over Europe.
Let's move to digitization. We have dedicated in this plan EUR 3.1 billion of investment in Italy and in Greece.
We will develop the investment addressing basically 3 clusters of initiatives. First of all, we are going to digitize all the assets that we have acquired from 2i Rete Gas, so that these assets will be completely controlled and monitored remotely by DANA from our control rooms in Turin and Florence.
Second cluster, we are going to deploy our brand-new smart meter, Nimbus in Italy. We have validated the project.
We have patented that meter. It is patented in Italy, in Eurasia, and we have a patent pending in Europe.
The meters has confirmed to have superior performances compared to all the smart meters presently available on the market. So we have decided to massively roll out the meters in Italy and in Greece.
And the third cluster will concern AI transformation and IT infrastructure upgrade in order to develop AI-driven new algorithms. Talking about digitization in Italy.
This has become basically a trademark for Italgas. We are dedicating this plan EUR 2.9 billion in order to complete the digitization of all the assets that we have acquired from 2i Rete Gas.
It's quite a large portfolio of assets. I recall that 2i Rete Gas has brought to us more than 1,200 City Gates, 12,000 district governors, more than 70,000 kilometers of networks, and we have to digitize all the bunch of pieces of equipment in a very short period of time.
So we have envisaged a step-by-step approach. The first step will come to completion by the end of 2027.
We will fully digitize the 1,200 City Gates so that the entire network will be remotely controlled by DANA from our control rooms in Turin and Florence in Italy. In parallel, we will digitize the 12,000 district governors, which are basically smaller plants.
so that by the end of the plan horizon 2013, we will have completely digitized the entire asset portfolio of former 2i Rete Gas. AI.
Let me first recall what we have done so far. We started in 2017 with a visionary approach to digitize our operation and our assets.
We set up a digital factory at our headquarters in Milano. And I think that we have been very successful.
Over the period of time, 2017, 2024, we have deployed more than 50 innovative digital solutions. We have reviewed more than 300 processes.
But what's more, we have involved a huge amount of our employees -- and this makes the digital factory and the digital approach a change management project, more than 750 people involved in the last 18 months only. So now we have to face the second stage, the second phase starting from this year to the end of this plan, which will be focused on AI transformation.
And Paolo has mentioned some of the first projects that we are already executing. So for sure, we will address data quality.
We will develop algorithms in order to achieve operational excellence, and we will improve in general, our operational skills. We will evolve the digital factory from digital rooms to AI rooms in order to design all the AI stuff that is needed for this transformation.
DANA will evolve, will change, will transform from a basic software for remote control and command of the network to a real platform for AI-enabled automation. And as I've mentioned before, we have already 100% of our network legacy 2i Gas Rete fully controlled by DANA.
By the end of 2027, we will extend this control capability to the new grids, the new assets acquired from the former 2i Rete Gas. And meantime, we will deploy DANA by the end of 2026 also in Greece, so that DANA will cover the entire portfolio of assets of the group.
The other important cluster of investment concerns metering. As I said, in this plan, we are planning a massive deployment of our Nimbus meter in Italy, primarily in order to address the replacement of the first generation of smart meters, which are based on GPRS technology or 2.5G.
This technology will soon come to obsolescence. So we have decided to massive replace these meters with the Nimbus.
In parallel, we will do the same thing in Greece, where the installation is driven by the need of replacing traditional meters, not even smart meters. And on top of that, the new connection, the new users, which will be driven by the extension of the grid that I already mentioned.
Let me conclude my presentation by confirming here our full commitment to reach the challenging targets in terms of reduction in net energy consumption and green gas emissions -- greenhouse gas emissions, sorry. We have reviewed these targets on the basis of the successful performances that we have recorded so far.
We are ahead of our original schedule, together with the extension of perimeter resulting from the recent acquisition of 2i Rete Gas. So in this plan, we're setting these new targets.
In terms of reduction of net energy consumption, we aim at reaching a target of minus 35% by the end of 2030 compared to the baseline of 2020 and minus 11% compared to the baseline of 2024. We will do that progressing with the project initiatives that we have already undertaken on our legacy networks and will extend to the former 2i Rete Gas networks.
So energy efficiency projects for industrial consumption and for civil consumptions, optimized fleet -- car fleet management and also a reduction of the uses of cars driven by AI. Concerning emissions, we are setting new targets on Scope 1 and 2.
The new targets are a reduction of minus 55% by the end of 2030 compared to the baseline of 2020 and minus 26% compared to the baseline of 2024. We will do that with our innovative technology of Picarro for gas leak detection with smart maintenance and also with the energy efficiency initiatives that reduces energy consumption, but as a byproduct reduces also emissions to the atmosphere.
These targets are in full alignment with the 1.5-degree Celsius scenario of the Paris Agreement, and we will target net zero by 2050. Scope 3 emission, again, -- we are confirming our commitment towards achieving the target in terms of reduction of minus 24% by 2030 compared to the baseline of 2024.
This, of course, we will achieve by tight collaboration with our partners, vendors and suppliers. So thank you very much, and I give the floor back to Paolo for Water and ESCo.
Paolo Gallo
Before getting into the numbers before giving the floor to Gianfranco, I would like just to spend a few words regarding the other 2 activities that we have in the group that are water distribution and energy efficiency. As I said before, our approach is whatever we have developed in the gas distribution, we are going to apply, especially in the water side, but also we are using in a mutual support, the energy efficiency as energy efficiency company is testing the solution to us.
We are providing them ideas about innovation and then the tested solution will be put on the market. So that is the -- what is behind the link between gas distribution, water distribution and energy efficiency.
On top of that, on the water, Pier Lorenzo described DANA. We will have very soon a DANA for water exactly the same as long as we will have digitized the network, we will be able to manage the network, the water distribution network remotely similar to what we are doing on the gas distribution.
On the water, we will carry out large-scale replacement of all pipelines in order to reduce together with the digitization, also the water leakages. In the energy efficiency, there has been a change in respect to the previous plan.
We have less M&A. We find that was not the best way to grow the business.
We are moving to let me say, traditional between brackets because it's not really traditional EPC business development. So it's going to be organic development.
We will have -- we will see in the numbers, less revenues, higher profitability. We are going to apply in that case, I'm saying it traditional, but it's not really traditional.
We are going to apply advanced technical solution, innovative solution in order to manage and to keep the customer loyal to us. And always remember that energy efficiency is also helping us in order to reduce and to achieve the targets that Lorenzo has described before.
Give you a few examples about the water, what we are doing. Since the acquisition, we have managed the company independently of the consolidation perimeter.
So we manage the company being the industrial partner. And we are committed over the plan period to invest EUR 450 million.
[indiscernible] EUR 450 million is what we consolidate in our numbers. If you look at the overall numbers, independently of the consolidation, the number looks bigger, it's EUR 800 million.
That includes network replacement, extension, completing the development of infrastructure to increase water availability. We show you in the picture the desalinization plant that we have already built in Sicily to improve the availability of water.
And on the other side, Ventotene Water Treatment Plant that has been also done. You probably know the Ventotene Island was a way to increase the quality of the water.
Of course, we use a lot of funds, local and the national resilience recovery fund in order to accelerate what we feel it is essential to transform the water distribution in a better service for the customers. The plan is very -- the plan is written in this presentation.
You see that our goal is to digitize the water distribution. There are a difference between the first 2 company and the second one because the first 2 are distributing up to the final customer.
The other 2 are just transportation. But apart from that, the approach is exactly the same.
We want to fully control the network remotely, and we want in that way to reduce significantly the water losses. The numbers of the sector, investing EUR 450 million will bring the RAB at the end of the plan over EUR 300 million.
Revenue will be EUR 220 million higher than the previous plan as well as the EBITDA that will pass the EUR 100 million. That is the numbers.
But to me, more -- even more important are the other objective that is the leak reduction. We want to bring down significantly the leakages of water to a number that is well below the average -- the Italian average, either in distribution and transportation.
We can do that only if we digitize the network, only if we replace the older pipelines. And this objective can be reached only if we are going to invest the numbers that I mentioned before.
In the meantime, energy efficiency, our company, ESCo, will work to support this company to reduce the energy consumption. 33% is our goal by 2030, even though we have experienced in 2024, a significant increase in the energy consumption due to the drought that we had not only in Sicily, but also in other parts of Italy.
As well, we want to reduce by 33% Scope 1 and 2 with always the same target to get to 2050 with a net zero carbon footprint. Finally, on energy efficiency.
as I told you at the beginning, was one of the 3 pillars designed by the European Commission in the REPowerEU to reduce the energy consumption, to get rid of the Russian supply energy to diversify the energy supply. That was a pillar that has been forgotten very soon.
Why? As I told you, it's difficult, but it's fundamental to reach the energy transition goal.
And our strategy is to offer to the 3 segments that you see, residential, industrial and public administration, innovative solution, digitized solution because that's the only way in which we can reach the targets set by the REPowerEU or in any case, set by the energy transition. We are going to invest nearly EUR 400 million, EUR 340 million throughout the plan period, mainly on the EPC contract development with limited amount of M&A contribution to growth.
That means slower revenue growth, but higher profitability. As I said, our focus is on residential and industrial segment as well as public administration.
With that effort, we will reach a total revenue by the end of the plan and EUR 260 million with a margin that will be 20% of EBITDA with an EBITDA margin of 20% -- if you have look at the numbers in the first 9 months, we are already there, I mean, very close, 19%. And we will continue to be there.
We don't want to have -- we don't want to offer low-value solution. Our solution will be high value, innovative from a technology point of view and digitized.
Now I leave the floor to Gianfranco for the conclusion of the presentation with the numbers.
Gianfranco Amoroso
Good afternoon, everybody. I will -- thank you, Paolo.
I will give you a quick overview over the 9-month results of this year. And immediately after, we will have another deep dive into the financial performance of the strategic plan.
So let's start with this picture. I like it very much because it's very clear.
is a clear demonstration of growth. Basically all the KPI of the profit and loss accounts are in the same direction.
The direction is a clear growth. Italian gas distribution is the main contributor to these results made of different elements.
There is the recovery of previous gap, of course, as you know very well since the first half. So the recovery of the deflator, the recovery of the OpEx recognizing the tariff by the new provision issued by the regulator.
And all this, of course, together with the contribution of 2i Rete Gas consolidated starting from the 1st of April, more than offset the impact -- the negative impact of the WACC, the 60 bps this year compared to last year. In the meanwhile, in parallel Water, Greece and ESCo are continuing their trajectory positively contributing to the performance.
And most importantly, as we will comment a few later after, there is a gaining momentum on the efficiencies. So benefiting of the first contribution of the initial synergies that we are implementing in this first 6 months.
So basically, the EBIT marks a growth of more than 50%, 53.8%, notwithstanding the negative impact of the PPA, we made the preliminary allocation of the PPA starting from 1st of April, and this accounts for around EUR 10 million in this 6-month period. Cash flow generation is massive.
We exceeded EUR 1 billion, of course, a record high for this period of time in the year and will cover -- is able to cover all the technical CapEx and part of the dividend, of course. CapEx, we will comment briefly after accounted for EUR 773 million, growing 40%, 40.7% compared to last year.
And net debt, of course, increased reaching EUR 10.9 billion, of course, impacted by the acquisition. So the price paid, the debt assumed through the consolidation of the company, net of the proceed of the capital increase successfully executed in June.
So all these elements will support an improving of the guidance for 2025 that I will comment later on talking about the strategic plan. I will -- sorry, I will go directly to the performance.
So revenues and operating costs. So the most important thing that I want to remark here is the new element that you see on the right side of the slide, that is the minus 3.5% on a like-for-like basis in the efficiencies.
This is the result of the first activities, the starting of the activities that we started last April. And this made of all the action that Paolo and Lorenzo explained before.
The number attached to this potential is EUR 14.6 million that is already, let's say, an indicator of the progression of the total number that we had commented before. Going back for a while to the total revenues.
I mean, the -- as you can see, the main contributor is 2i Rete Gas, of course, due to the consolidation. There is also the positive contribution in terms of RAB growth made by both the Italian gas distribution and the Greek distribution and also the impact of the resolution of ARERA that I commented before.
The negative is, of course, the negative impact of the WACC accounting for about EUR 38.7 million, while on the -- over the EUR 42.7 million water and ESCo, ESCo contributed approximately EUR 426 million. So if you go to the following slide, we can see the performance in terms of adjusted EBITDA, a robust profitability, benefiting from the updated perimeters of the consolidation and also the action for the reduction of the cost.
EBITDA growth compared to the last year of about 35.6%. Distribution was usually the main contributor to this performance with a positive of EUR 347 million, while Water and ESCo contributed also with EUR 12.6 million.
In terms of EBIT, very short comment apart from the, let's say, contribution of the EBITDA, there is, of course, the change in the D&A that is negative. This, of course, is the impact of the consolidation of 2i Rete Gas, the CapEx executed in the last quarter and let's say, that more than offset the positive contribution due to the, let's say, termination of the Rome concession last year.
In terms of net profit in the following page, of course, the growth, as we have seen is double digit in terms of net profit adjusted, up to 36.8% versus last year. Of course, there is the impact of 2i Rete Gas acquisition in terms of positive contribution of EUR 274 million, while on the negative expected impact of the financial charges due to the increase in the debt linked to the acquisition, the bridge financing, the bond that we issued in February, the interest on the debt consolidated through the acquisition of 2i Rete Gas.
And the total impact of all of that is around EUR 77 million, as you can see. On the taxable income and tax rate, you see that there is a negative of EUR 58 million.
This is due to the increase in the EBIT -- total that has driven the tax rate to 28.1%, a slight increase from the 27.6% of last year. So if we move to the technical investments briefly, as I commented, the total amount of CapEx in the period has been of EUR 773 million, up to 40.7% compared to last year.
I would underline a couple of things. The first is more than 600 kilometers of new network pipes execute deployed during the period, of which 360 in Greece.
And the starting of the activity, the preparation works for the upgrade and the digitization plan of the perimeter of 2i Rete Gas. Now on the cash flow.
As I said, the remarkable number is the EUR 1 billion of operational cash flow. There is -- these results very positive as, let's say, more than offset the slightly negative impact of the net working capital, about EUR 22 million that is, let's say, typical for this period of the year due to the billing seasonality.
And then, of course, this more than EUR 1 billion of operating cash flow has fully covered the CapEx executed in the period of EUR 827 million and has also covered part of the dividend paid in May of EUR 350 million. So all of that results, of course, in a variation of net debt that is impacted by the acquisition for, let's say, the debt and the price paid for the acquisition of 2i Rete Gas.
So I think now we can move forward to the plan, back to the plan in order to comment the financial of the strategic plan. First, let me comment on that, let's say, broad picture.
Our plan has the target to deliver a 10% EPS growth that has been, let's say, made possible by a disciplined capital allocation between the different components of our CapEx plan, an improvement in the level of efficiencies. And all this, of course, make the shareholders benefiting through the dividend policy that we will comment later on.
So the 3 pillars are investment plan, of course, upgraded and increased by more than 5%, 5.7% compared to previous year, out of which the technical component reached EUR 10 billion compared to the EUR 9.1 billion of the previous plan. Second, very important, already commented and discussed the operational efficiency and extra revenues coming from the investments.
that have been improved by more or less 25% compared to last year. Finally, but very important, the strength of our balance sheet.
This is, let's say, supported by an increase in the level of operational cash flow aggregated for the whole life of the plan of more than 7%. Of course, this has made possible the full coverage of the technical investment done during the period, the payment of all the dividend.
And of course, as usual, there is headroom for tenders and potential M&A activities. So this is not to be commented because we discussed at length, but help me to explain this one, so the development of the RAB.
The development of RAB as usual, let's say, clarified with tender and without tender. If you look at the figure overall, including the tender, we are moving from EUR 10.2 billion reported '24 to a level of EUR 20.3 billion, of which 90% is gas -- Italgas distribution in Italy.
If we exclude from the tenders from the numbers, the overall RAB is expected to reach EUR 18.9 billion with an average CAGR of 9.2%. Of course, tenders will contribute to EUR 1.4 billion additional RAB to the figures that I just commented of EUR 18.9 billion.
The increase of RAB compared to last year plan is upgraded. If you look at the RAB, if you remember the level of the RAB in 2030 or last year plan, there is a difference with the lending number of 2031 of around EUR 1 billion.
This is, of course, due to the increased level of CapEx of this plan and also there is also the impact of the deflator that we have already explained. Talking on the right side of the redelivery point, also in this situation, we can consider the number including the tenders, and we have a CAGR on the plan of 10.1%.
If you exclude the tender, the number is 7.8%. Talking about profitability, we have seen increased level of investment, capital allocation, increase of RAB revenues drive to an increase of EBITDA.
The rate of a CAGR of EBITDA is more than 12% higher than the RAB CAGR, meaning that we have also the possibility to have an extra growth due to the extra activities and investments that we are planning into the plan and also the efficiencies. We have done, let's say, a segmentation in order to give you the starting point of EUR 1.35 billion, the intermidpoint that will be the guidance for '25 of EUR 1.87 billion.
And then the landing point at the end of EUR 3 billion of the EBITDA. Of course, most of this -- the large part of this increase is linked to the inclusion of 2i Rete Gas as expected.
Another important portion is linked to synergies, efficiencies and AI. And then we have the contribution of the tender, of course.
Let me say that out of the EUR 3 billion at the end of the plan, the gas distribution of the -- Italian gas distribution will have 80% of, let's say, contribution to that number, 6% will be the contribution of Greece, while ESCo, Water and other will account for 6%, same number, 8% the tenders. On the right side, you have the evolution and the trajectory of the OpEx cost basis in, let's say, as a starting point, we have here the 2024 on the '23 that we have commented before.
Of course, you see the increase due to the consolidation of 2i Rete Gas, cost linked to the tenders and the synergy and efficiencies that, let's say, contributed to the reduction arriving to the level of 2031. All that allow us to make a projection of the EPS jointly with the financial charges that we will comment soon.
So the EBITDA expansion, financial discipline, driving a double-digit growth of 10% throughout the plan. We start from a level of EPS adjusted for IAS 33 of EUR 0.59 in 2024.
And approaching the end of the plan, there is also a very important year, the 2029 year in which the net income will exceed EUR 1 billion. So it is considered a very important achievement, of course.
All that is, say, possible also due to the financial strength of the balance sheet, the third pillar. And this is the clear evidence of that.
If you look on the left side, you have the maturity profile of our debt, very well spread all over the years of the business plan. Our financial strategy is focused on, of course, maintaining a solid liquidity buffer, have a mix of fixed and floating rate around 70% and 30% and increase the duration through the issuance of the new bonds in the plan.
The strong, let's say, the improved cash generation profile allowed us to achieve in the plan the level set and agreed with the rating agencies 1 year earlier than projected last year in the plan. So we are now able to meet the 65% threshold not in '28 in '27.
This is a clear situation of deleverage that allow us to have financial flexibility in our plan. You see on the right, the evolution of the credit ratios, net debt over RAB will end at the end of 2031 more or less at 60%, but clear deleverage starting from now.
And also the funds from operation over net debt has a very positive and incremental trajectory. The result of this strategy is a cost of debt that, of course, will evolve during the year due to the refinancing of the maturities of older bonds, but we remain well below 3% throughout the plan.
So finally, let me recap and give you the guidance. For the current year '25, supported by the result of the third quarter, we are improving our guidance with adjusted revenues of EUR 2.5 billion versus previous EUR 2.45 billion, adjusted EBITDA of EUR 1.87 billion versus a range that we gave of EUR 1.85 billion, adjusted EBIT of EUR 1.19 billion versus previous range of EUR 1.12 billion, EUR 1.16, while we are confirming our expectation in terms of technical CapEx around EUR 1.2 billion and net debt, excluding IFRS 16, around EUR 10.8 billion.
Jumping to the final year of the plan 2031, including tenders, we are projecting revenues of approximately EUR 3.8 billion above the previous plan of EUR 3.6 at the year before 2030. EBITDA of EUR 3 billion above the previous 2030 level of EUR 2.8 billion, EBIT of EUR 2 billion above the last year plan of EUR 1.8 billion in 2030.
The intermediate year 2029 will have revenues for EUR 3.4 billion, EBITDA of EUR 2.7 billion and EBIT of EUR 1.8 billion. RAB will surpass EUR 20 billion, EUR 20.3 billion versus EUR 19.2 billion of the previous plan ending in 2030.
The leverage, as discussed, is improving and will end, as I said, at 60% at the end of 2031. Now I give back the floor to Paolo for the dividend policy.
Paolo Gallo
Thank you. I'm going to the end.
The last but not least, the dividend policy. And I'm closing that.
I will leave just final remarks on slide, and then I will open the floor for questions. Let me say that has been approved yesterday by our Board of Directors, and we decided based on the results of the 9 months based on the plan that we have approved to extend the dividend policy up to 2028, maintaining the same payout ratio, 65% on adjusted EPS.
And we have just changed the floor -- so instead of starting from 2023, we started from -- we use 2024 DPS as a reference point and with an increase of 5% per annum. It's not insignificant.
Anna Maria will tell me that the number is not 5%, but I disagree with her, but that I will mention also Anna Maria point of view. I think it's not insignificant because not only we extend the dividend policy by 2 years, but we significantly increased the reference point.
But I also would like to remind you that in the past year, we have never, never used the floor. So our result has been always above the floor and the increase provided by the floor.
According to Anna Maria and probably IAS33 for which don't ask me what it is, adjustment, the increase is not -- the increase expected -- the minimum increase expected in 2025 is not 5%, but is 11.7%. You know that you know better than me IAS 33, but still, I'm very basic person.
So I'm saying I want to guarantee an increase of 5% over the last dividend that we paid this year over 2024 result. That's the end of the presentation.
Thank you for your patience. It has been quite long, but we are here for -- to answer to any question you may have.
Maybe not all of them, but some of them, yes. Thank you.
Unknown Attendee
So thank you to everyone. [Operator Instructions] James for a long time.
So we start from the back there, James Brand. James, if you can stand up and...
James Brand
It's James Brown from Deutsche Bank. I wanted to just, obviously, a very impressive plan and a lot of synergies and cost efficiencies that you're delivering.
I just wanted to ask what you're assuming in terms of any potential regulatory clawback at some point? Because as I understand it, there's a cost review that will be coming in 2027 for 2028.
And there's also this whole debate about do we switch to like a TOTEX system, but nobody seems to know exactly what that will mean at the moment. So I was just wondering, I guess, what you've assumed in your plan?
And perhaps it's impossible to know, but maybe you could just talk us through a little bit how you think about the risk of getting some of the cost efficiencies claw back from you and how you think about TOTEX. And that was kind of going to be one question, but I think it's probably about 3 already.
So I'll leave it at that, and I'd be very grateful to you.
Paolo Gallo
Let me say that we are more than happy to give our efficiency for a time horizon back to the system. It's the way to repay institution to repay our customers, to repay the market.
Just to give you a number, and then I will go back to your answer. Just to give you a number.
In between '18 and '24, we gave back EUR 300 million to the system. So I think that is the game.
I think we have demonstrated in the last 9 years that no matter we give the money back to the system, we are able to achieve better performance. And we have never changed that approach.
So let me say, the focus on cost efficiency is one and then the regulatory is another one. But I -- the whole management is focused on cost efficiency, forgetting that the regulatory period will somehow later asking something back.
To your point, what we have assumed in the plan, we have assumed an X-factor consistent with what we have experienced up to now. So we have already embedded in the plan less revenues as a way to give this money back, this efficiency back to the system.
And regarding '28, '28 is difficult to shape because, as you know, there will be a new system, the TOTEX, we call ROS, but it's the same. I think that will change the rules of the game.
For us, we see an opportunity because we can become even more -- we can even more implement an industrial approach because you mix altogether OpEx and CapEx and you make -- and you decide based on which is the best solution for you as an industry to allocate, let me say, money on the OpEx or on the CapEx. But because we don't have -- because there is no consultation yet on the market, we don't know how the regulatory body will shape the ROS.
We know the general terms of the ROS. So what we have thought about is it's another opportunity for us to be even more efficient.
But in the plan is embedded and X-factor similar to what we have experienced up to now.
Unknown Attendee
We have Julius there.
Julius Nickelsen
Julius Nickelsen from Bank of America. Two questions on the synergies and then just one clarification.
The first one, I mean, I understand that the last time you put out the EUR 200 million, this was before you actually run the assets and now you upgraded it. Is that number now here to stay?
Or are there any surprises left where you think some areas in the business that could still bring some more synergies? I don't want to be greedy.
And then in terms of what have you already achieved in 2025 and what is left in 2026? I see you saw the EUR 14.6 million of cost synergies in this quarter, but could you maybe give a little bit more precise split?
And then lastly, just to have ask, I assume these numbers assume that the allowed return will stay at 5.9% for the plan.
Paolo Gallo
Okay. Starting from the last question, we have assumed that 5.9% will remain.
So we assume flat WACC. Regarding the first question, we have already presented -- we just presented a new plan.
Now you are asking me, there is something more. We need to wait 1 year and maybe we will find something more, not now.
I think -- but apart the joke, I think that what we have done, thanks to -- mainly to Pier Lorenzo because he has run all the -- and the other team has run all the detailed analysis. We were able to build on a bottom-up basis really the -- all the activities that are needed to be put in place in order to achieve the synergies.
So while 1 year ago, we were -- we made more an approach top-down saying, okay, what we can achieve, what with a similarity of the results that we have achieved in the past in Italgas Today, we are here and we say EUR 250 million that again, it's a round number, but it's EUR 252 million. So if you want, you can get another EUR 2 million on top of that.
It's a true number based on all the detailed activities and results that we expect to achieve. What has been already achieved in '25 is the number that you have seen.
It's a combination of synergies and ongoing focus on cost cutting. We cannot -- from now on, we will not be able to separate what it was if we were alone and what it is now because now 2i Rete Gas is not an entity anymore since July 1.
So you should look at the numbers as the total -- so our ability to continue to reduce the cost, our ability to produce synergies, I would say, mainly in the traditional and digital part. AI will come later.
It will not come. We'll probably see some numbers in '26.
But as you have seen in the curve of the graph, it will come later. But I cannot tell you, if you are asking me in '26, what are the synergies, what you have -- it's impossible because now the company is one company, the organization is one organization.
So I will be focused on what we will be able to achieve as a cost cutting and synergies in comparison to what was the baseline in 2023.
Unknown Attendee
We have Francesco,
Francesco Sala
Francesco Sala, Banca Akros. Congratulations for your results and the presentation.
The first one is on the -- your inflation assumption, especially for the RAB until 2031. The second is what makes you think there's going to be a pickup in tender activity in the next few years?
And if there is any evidence you have to back this assumption or if something has changed in the last few months? And thirdly, you wish that there were more opportunities in the water segment, but there have been very few in the last few years.
I wonder whether you think something is going to change in this regard in the next future?
Paolo Gallo
The first one, I mean, we have assumed on the long run an inflation rate of 2%, very simple. So we were not so creative.
So we just flat the inflation to 2%. On the tender side, we have seen a 2025 that probably has been the best year ever since the launch of the tender in terms of number of the tenders that has been awarded and tendered, '26 look similar.
My point is, and probably you have read on the newspaper, my point is that as the Ministry [indiscernible] said, tenders process need to be reviewed. And I think the point is need to be reviewed in terms of size of the tender, so increase the size of each single item, reducing the number of items.
And on the other side, having let me say, an institution on an authority that authority is not the right term. A body that is running the tender that is more effective, can be local, can be regional, can be central, but should run the tender.
The problem is as of today is that there are so many that have not taken this as a clear commitment to run the tender and to complete the tender. What you said on the water distribution is true.
You said few, I would said 0 opportunity. I will make it few to 0, not only, but each opportunity, we need to look very carefully because we don't want to have an opportunity that is not an opportunity that is a problem.
So we will look only if there are serious opportunity in the market. As of today, there is none.
But on the other side, the plan will continue to deliver better quality of the service, less leaks, operational efficiency in the perimeter that we have acquired from Veolia.
Unknown Attendee
So we have...
Paolo Gallo
We will answer to all your questions. So don't worry.
Unknown Attendee
Okay. So Aleksandra there and then we go in the line.
Aleksandra Arsova
Aleksandra Arsova from Equita. So 3 questions on my end.
The first one, so again, not to be too greedy, but maybe on dividend since you provided an improved growth profile, faster deleverage. So I'm thinking maybe is there any room maybe next year to further improve either the payout or the growth in EPS?
This is the first one. The second one is maybe more a curiosity.
You are mentioning the potential changes to the concession regulatory framework. But if this -- the timing of these changes, I mean, are quite uncertain.
And so I was thinking maybe on the other hand, is there any possibility or is it viable from an antitrust point of view to do further M&A in Italy, maybe many bolt-on M&As? And the third one is a follow-up, a clarification on the unitary OpEx tariff.
So you said previously, if I understood it correctly, that you assumed the X factor, which is similar to the one you have at the moment. But if I remember correctly, the consultation paper under review currently assumes a lower X factor at least for '26, '27.
So you are more conservative at the moment vis-a-vis the proposal by ARERA?
Paolo Gallo
On the first question, you know the answer, so I don't answer to you exactly. I said that I don't know how many times.
I think -- and I'm -- on that point, you can be flexible. But the point is that with that dividend policy that we applied over 9 years, we were able to acquire 2i Rete Gas.
So the answer is there. On the second one, there are many discussions around tender and concession.
I don't think it is viable to extend the validity of the concession because the concession has been expired in '12. So it's strange to because somebody is proposing to extend the concession.
But the problem is different. The problem is tenders have been set 13 years ago.
The process didn't work. I think we need to face this situation and try to solve it.
Further M&A, while the tenders are going on, you will be scrutiny again by the antitrust. And as of today, there is nothing again on the market.
for the OpEx. We have used the -- for '26 and '27, we have used the numbers in the consultation, but then from '28, we use a flat number higher than the ones for '26 and '27.
Unknown Attendee
And then Fernando. Okay.
Unknown Analyst
First question is regarding the slide in Page 19. This is related to the time line of cost savings.
I mean I was doing a visual calculation there. It looks like you are getting around 50% of the cost savings already in 2026.
My question here is this is something that you expect in 2026 or maybe more end of the year. I'm saying this is because this could have significant implications of next year earnings.
So that is my first question. Then second question, I think that you say that you assume a flat WACC for the period until 2031.
So there, I would like to know what is your expectation in terms of the activation of the trigger mechanism for next year. I assume that you don't expect it, but you can clarify.
And a follow-up question on that is France lost the AA rating in October. I would like to know your opinion on what has to be done in this scenario?
And what could be the implications for the sector?
Paolo Gallo
Always remember, you referred to Page 19 that this number is as a reference of 2023 cost. So part of that has been already achieved in '24.
Part of that will be achieved in '25. So the '26 is already a cumulative number that takes into consideration what was already achieved.
It will be, as you see, mainly traditional in '26, some digital, and they represent about, let's say, 40% of the total. On the second one, we have -- on the WACC, we have assumed, as you said, flat period, so trigger will not apply according to us also because France should be out of the reference country because they lost the AA rating.
They are now in A+. So according to the regulatory framework that set the characteristic of the countries to be compared with, they said they should be AA countries.
France is not anymore AA countries. So I think that is my -- I mean, reading the paper of the regulatory and applying just in a very simple way.
Last year, France was probably still considered because if you remember last year, France was AA-. So they still have the AA somehow.
Today, 1A is lost completely. So they have A+ only.
Next...
Unknown Attendee
We have Sarah there. Yes, Alberto, [indiscernible] to you.
Sarah Lester
Sarah Lester from Morgan Stanley. And I really do apologize one more on synergies, and then I think we'll stop on the synergies.
'27, '28. So tying a bow on, I think it's Slide 15, 19 and 20, it feels like you're in the ballpark of EUR 180 million in '27, 2028.
Just doing a sense, check if they're kind of sensible numbers. And then I also have a high-level question on future mapping.
You're obviously incredibly strong at extracting value from acquisitions. Would you consider expanding outside of Europe?
Paolo Gallo
If you go back to page -- page, I'm coming to Page 20, you will see that by 2028, the majority of the synergies that are EUR 180 million are reached, not all, but a significant portion of that. So you're right.
The second question is relevant to potential acquisition. I'm not saying nothing about that because it's -- we don't have anything in our end.
I always say which are the principles that drive us. First of all, Europe is our area of interest, of course.
But the second point for which we look at the outside Italy are, first of all, macroeconomic scenario of the country and then even more important, the regulatory framework. That is what we did in Greece.
At the time, macroeconomic scenario was not looking very good, but we saw at the time, significant signal of improvement. So we strongly believe at the time that Greece, and we were right, would come out of the situation that they were and now they are in a very good macroeconomic condition.
And the second element, even more important, regulatory framework was very stable, was clear, was similar to our. So those are the 2 elements that we normally look before considering anything outside Italy.
Europe, of course, is the best area where we would like eventually to invest if the 2 conditions that I mentioned to you are met. And there is somebody that is willing to sell, of course.
There is no one that there is no interest.
Unknown Attendee
Yes, so Christabel. There?
Christabel Kelly
Chris from UBS here. Just one question on the financing strategy.
I noticed that this time, you're aiming for a fixed floating ratio of 70% to 30% and an increased duration. Can I assume that that's reflective of your view on where interest rates are going, cost of financing for Italy and for Italgas going forward?
Paolo Gallo
Yes. I think if I well understood your point, the strategy is based on the expected structure of the rates in the future, of course.
In this plan, we are assuming a level of the fixed rate more or less stabilized on the current levels, while we are expecting a decrease -- a sharp decrease in the short-term rates. For this reason, the ratio changed a bit from the previous 20% to 80% to 30% to 70%, meaning that we will go more for, let's say, short-term or variable rates that could be also a long-term fixed rate swap into a variable in order to take benefit of this situation of the rates.
And the combination of the 2 situation, coupled with also the increased duration will result in the level of cost of debt that I have commented in the slide. Next.
Alberto de Antonio Gardeta
Alberto de Antonio from BNP Paribas. My first question will be on Greece.
You have given the targets for 2021 in terms of revenues, EBITDA and RAB. Maybe could you disclose what your assumptions behind in terms of WACC inflation, X-factor or any additional potential revenues?
And my second question will be regarding the biomethane opportunity. And let me understand if -- are you investing directly in any plans or how this business works and how this is going to impact your company in terms of maybe CapEx, potential additional revenues or just decarbonation of the molecules?
Paolo Gallo
Okay. Regarding Greece assumption, if I well understood, we have assumed similar to the overall plan, flat rate, flat interest rate, flat allowed return similar to what we have today.
There may be some correction over time, but we don't think this is going to be significant. That was the assumption that we used.
and inflation as well. So we use the same numbers that we are using for Italy, we use also for Greece because, as I said before, the 2 countries are very similar today as well as the other.
Regarding biomethane, what we have assumed in the biomethane, maybe Pier Lorenzo can elaborate a little bit more is not that we are investing in biomethane production plant, but we are making the connection easier for them to accelerate the development of biomethane new plant and the connection. Maybe Pier Lorenzo can say a little bit more about our approach in how we can help biomethane production plant to be connected.
Pier Lorenzo
Yes. As Paolo anticipated, we see biomethane not really as an opportunity to invest in directly, but as a gigantic opportunity for our country to address the decarbonization of the end user and consumptions together with the security and supply because biomethane, we have to remember here in U.K., you have a lot of production as well, is made locally.
So looking at Europe as a whole continent, which is strongly dependent on importation of gas, biomethane production can mitigate this issue concerning security of supply. So all in all, our approach here is to promote the development of the industry in Italy, facilitating, making easier to connect these plants to the local grids.
And we do that, we have done in the past, and we will do more and more by streamlining the design of the connections so that they cost less and less and by investing in reverse flow projects. The main issue that can arise in a project of connection of biomethane to a local grid is the fact that the local grid at the exact site where the developer of the plant wants to install the biomethane plant is not fully capable of receiving the entire amount of production of gases in every hour of the year, especially when the demand is very low.
So thanks to reverse plants, we can debottleneck the local network so that virtually we can -- or really not virtually, we can connect any kind of biomethane plants wherever the developer wants to develop the plant. And connecting a biomethane plant to a local distribution network is definitely less expensive than connecting the same biomethane plant to a transportation network, which is run operated at definitely higher pressure, so they need compression and blah, blah, blah.
So we have to promote and we want to do that, the connection of biomethane plants to local low-pressure distribution network. That is our aim.
Of course, we reflect all these in our CapEx investment plan in terms of CapEx strictly related to the connection of the plants. So pipes and pieces of equipment that we need to connect.
Unknown Attendee
Ella from Citi.
Ella Walker-Hunt
I have 3 questions, if that's okay. First question is to do with the WACC trigger.
The WACC trigger. -- if it is triggered, can you just give us a sensitivity of us know how the earnings would be impacted if there was a downside trigger.
My second question relates to AI synergies. So I remember in the last plan when you were discussing your EUR 200 million synergies, you said that EUR 80 million were going to come from AI synergies.
And then in this plan, it's more like EUR 70 million. So can you just talk about the difference there in terms of the EUR 80 million and EUR 70 million?
And then my last question refers to the tenders. So you -- in terms of the 247,000 connection points that you're selling, you sold them at a great price, 16% premium to RAB.
But if you do -- if we do a quick back of the envelope calculation in terms of your plan, then you have EUR 1.5 billion CapEx for the tenders to bring on EUR 1.4 billion RAB. So it's like 7% premium to RAB.
So I was just wondering about the difference there. So why do you think -- I guess, yes, just the acquisition price at a much lower premium versus what you sold at?
Paolo Gallo
The last question we need to interact because it was not very clear to me. Let's start from the first one.
The impact of a potential trigger for which we don't believe is going to happen is EUR 45 million. EUR 15 billion of RAB multiplied by 30 bps, that's the impact in terms of less revenues.
AI synergy, which -- what is the difference? Let me say what we said is, of course, pretax revenue, the EUR 45 million is pretax.
In terms of AI synergies, let me say that last year, we have estimated between -- I remember, I said EUR 70 million to EUR 80 million, but it's true. We mentioned EUR 80 million because we thought the number came out from the fact that the impact that was generated the digital transformation in the 7 years previous plan that generated a certain number would have been similar or better.
The synergy impact would have been similar to what was generated by the digital transformation previous plan, and that the number came out from. So it was not a bottom-up.
It was a clear top-down numbers. Now we were more -- much more detailed in building see -- AI cases and say what is going to happen with the application of the AI.
There will be more productivity, less personnel involved, less use of cars and other stuff like that. So we were able to detail and the number came up to be EUR 70 million.
So I strongly believe the EUR 70 million is more reliable than 80 million of last year. EUR 80 million was, and I always said was taking as a similarity.
But I have also to say that between now and the next couple of years, other AI uses will come up. So I would take this as a floor, the EUR 70 million, and I will not take it as a final number.
Based on the knowledge that we have today, that is the best reliable number we can give it to you with the time frame that we have envisaged. But it's going to be changed.
Yes, because AI is something that is evolving. I don't think anyone -- anyone in our industry, but in general, anyone in industry like ours has been able to predict with such detailed way the AI impact on the cost of the company.
The last one I have -- let me just recap, okay? We bought what we bought at a limited premium.
And then we sold RAB EUR 218 million with a certain premium higher than what we bought, okay? That's the end of the deal.
Tender is another matter. You know the tender we buy at RAB by definition because there is no competition on the value of their assets.
So that is the fact that has been reduced the amount of the tender is only due by the delay. Remember that the number is made of acquisition of existing network plus CapEx that is requested to upgrade this new network acquired through a tender.
So the delay in the tender means that there may be some items that are not in the plan period anymore. But if you delay the tender also the CapEx, technical CapEx connected to the tender may be delayed, too.
But there is nothing to do with premium. I don't know if I'm clear.
Okay.
Unknown Attendee
If there are no more questions from the room, we can take the question from the conference call.
Operator
The first question is from Javier Suarez of Mediobanca.
Javier Suarez Hernandez
I'm really sorry to jump with questions after a long presentation. So the first question is on the EBITDA margin that is embedded into your plan.
That means -- that means an expansion versus 79%...
Paolo Gallo
Can you start again because now your voice is back.
Javier Suarez Hernandez
Okay. Can you hear me now?
So the first question is related to the expansion on the EBITDA margin to 79%, which is the number that is embedded into your guidance for 2029 and '31. So the question for you is that if you can help us to understand that expansion in the EBITDA margin that is going to be by the end of the plan, significantly different between the old Italgas 2i Rete Gas, Depa and the water business.
So further detail on EBITDA marginality between your different activities would be very helpful. The second question is on the tendering process and what may be done to incentivize and to stimulate the process.
So you can share with us any proposal to the new -- to the administration in Italy to make the system more virtuous and probably quick. And if you think that what it is happening or is the discussion for the electricity distribution concession is something that could be replicated to the gas distribution concessions as well?
And the very final question is on Slide 60, when you are showing the credit metrics. So there is a vertical a significant decrease on net debt to RAB and a significant increase in the FFO versus net debt.
So the question is, philosophically, where do you think that a company like Italgas should be seated if it is a correct interpretation to say that beyond, say, 2028, the company is maintaining some financial flexibility to capture additional opportunities related to M&A or the tendering process, if that is a correct interpretation?
Pier Lorenzo
Okay. Let me start -- maybe start Frank, on the first EBITDA...
EBITDA trajectory in the plan. clear, you are right, meaning that it is true that there is a clear direction in terms of improving the EBITDA margin, both for Italian gas distribution.
We are approaching at the end of the plan a level of 88% basically. And so starting from a level now that is around 80%.
In terms of the same trajectory is also followed by -- in parallel by Enon, by Greece, but on the lower scale, of course, you remember that in the past, we considered Enon as, let's say, like [indiscernible] in Italy, so a smaller perimeter with headroom for improving efficiency. So also Enon will improve the EBITDA margin at the end of the plan, approaching 76%, 78% more or less.
The driver behind that, of course, are the operational efficiency synergies, revenue synergies that we commented, mainly I would say.
Paolo Gallo
Yes. I'm just adding 2 points.
EBITDA is growing because the costs are going down. There is a clear difference between -- you remember that we put the ambition of Greece and the ambition Greece, we are on the trajectory of that ambition.
But we have always said that because of the size of the Greece they will never be able to achieve the same EBITDA margin that we are able to achieve, thanks to the size that we are having in Italy. But also in Greece, we are using -- we have applied digital transformation.
We will fully digitize the network. We are doing that.
We are very close. By the end of this year, we will complete that.
AI application will be moved to Greece too, but the scale will determine, of course, a different -- slightly different EBITDA with a margin that is probably lower than the one in Italy. On the tender side, my only comment probably Javier didn't hear what I said before.
The proposal on the electricity distribution is to extend the concession, but concessions are in full force today. So the comparison between gas distribution and electricity distribution is not comparing apple with apple because gas distribution concessions have expired by law back in 2012.
We have talked for many, many years about what we can do in order to accelerate the tenders. Our opinion, our position that is shared among the association is that we need to reduce the number of items.
So we need to reduce the number of tenders. And we need to have a clear commitment by whoever take the responsibility to run this tender to run this tender because otherwise, you can even reduce the number of tenders increasing the size of the item, but that if no one is taking the responsibility to run the process in in a time manner, then we will be sticking the same situation.
So 2 elements should be addressed. Number of items reduced and a clear and committed responsibility to run the tenders.
I think regarding the last question, what we have presented always is deleveraging over time. And as in the past, we have always find a way to use and to invest properly eventually any additional fund we may have in order to increase the profitability of the company.
So I would not -- we need to stay below 65%. That's no doubt about that.
That is our target because we want to maintain the same rating that we have with the rating agency. Apart from that, everything else, if there is a room, we will try to use in the best way like we did in the past, available funds.
Unknown Attendee
Next question from the call, please.
Operator
The next question is from Davide Candela of Intesa Sanpaolo.
Davide Candela
I have just 2. The first one is with regards to the nanometers rollout.
It looks like to me that by 2030 and the year after, there could be a little bit of deceleration in the rollout in Italy. I wonder if you can share why is that if it is because you are reaching a certain point that no more should be installed or you're waiting for something and maybe some assumption behind the cost you are assuming in the plan for the rollout of those meter -- and second...
Paolo Gallo
Excuse me, you are talking about rollout, but rollout of what?
Davide Candela
Of the smart meter. Sorry for that.
And second question, really high level with regards to the data centers. And we have recently seen a potential role of hydrogen with the fuel cell technology in the data centers.
I was wondering if you could just share your view very high level and maybe if there is a role in future for gas distributor in there?
Paolo Gallo
Regarding the first one, just to make it clear, the meters that we are going to replace are the first generation, I think Pier Lorenzo said very clearly. So the GPRS, not narrowband IoT, not the latest that we are going to install.
That's the reason why we still have EUR 6 million, the combination of 2i Rete Gas and Italgas Reti of GPRS. You know the GPRS is a technology that the telco will probably soon discontinue.
So we are planning to replace them. The structure should be very similar, let me say, the impact on our profit and loss and depreciation is exactly the same that we had when we replaced the traditional one with the smart one.
So we expect that the regulator in order to face a situation where at a certain moment in time, this smart meter will not transmit anymore because GPRS will disappear. They will issue a regulation for which to encourage the operator to replace the GPRS with new ones.
That's the reason why there is EUR 6 million on that. Regarding use of hydrogen for data center, if that is the request, honestly, I don't have an answer.
So I don't know how to use hydrogen in the data center, if that is the question that I understood.
Unknown Attendee
Next question please.
Operator
The next question is from Bartek Kubicki of Bernstein.
Bartlomiej Kubicki
Congratulations. I hope you can hear me well.
A few things from my side. First of all, on the regulation as such.
As we remember, there is quite some volatility with regards to gas distribution regulatory framework in the last couple of years, unexpected WACC cut, OpEx cut back in 2019. My question is, what are the key -- in your opinion, what are the key upsides and downsides from the regulatory point of view to your business plan not included in the business plan?
And I'm not talking about the trigger mechanism, something which is out of the common discussion, including here the potential remuneration of the smart meters of the existing smart meters and the faster depreciation of those existing smart meters. Second thing, I would like to -- just a clarification on your leverage.
Of course, you will degear very quickly from, I suppose, more than 70% net debt to RAB to 60% net debt to RAB into 2031. Just a quick question.
What do you assume with regards to the famous Rome concession? Because I remember there was always some kind of EUR 0.5 billion potential payment to keep the Rome concession for longer.
What do you assume here? I mean, is it still assumed in the business plan or not anymore?
And the last point on your synergies and efficiencies, will it cost anything? Meaning I know that you said there will be no redundancies, but will you be incurring any additional restructuring costs to get to those synergies?
Paolo Gallo
First question is, honestly, what I can say is that for me, '26 and '27 is very clear the regulation. So we don't expect no upside, no downside.
Then from 2028, there will be the ROS taking place. In the ROS, we may see maybe some remuneration of the fully amortized asset, for example, similar to what currently Enon is enjoying if they keep in proper operation, fully amortized, fully depreciated assets.
That's one element, but it's not so -- it comes to my mind. But generally speaking, the ROS application or the TOTEX application starting from 2028 for me, from the vision that we have, it could be an upside from an industrial point of view for Italgas in a sense that to be constrained OpEx and CapEx will be one single box in which you really leverage your capability in managing network and deciding which is better to spend in OpEx or to spend in CapEx, depending which is the best result from an industrial point of view.
So if I look at the framework, I welcome the ROS, the TOTEX framework coming because it will give us more opportunity to use our industrial competence in order to increase our results. I'm just closing on the third point, and then I will leave the floor to Gianfranco for the Rome concession.
I said no redundancy. We didn't any redundancy in the past.
There's no cost associated. We don't have any redundancy.
Our goal is today, and we have already started is to start reskilling our personnel in order to handle different kind of process and different kind of activity. We don't have to wait AI to be massively used.
We need to do it now, and we will do it now in order to be ready when the AI will be used in a more extensive way to be able for our personnel, for our colleague to take other jobs consistent with the new organization from one side, the new process from the other side. So there is no cost associated.
There will be no redundancy at all.
Gianfranco Amoroso
On the Rome concession, the assumption in the plan is very straightforward because we have a receivable for around EUR 300 million in our balance sheet. Simply the business plan assumes that this receivable is paid during the plan.
Consider that the other important assumption is that we are assuming in 2028 the taking of control after the tender of Rome of the concession. So this payment can happen before this date or I would say at the latest at this date.
So you will have the cash in the cash position during the plan.
Paolo Gallo
The impact of deleverage, EUR 300 million over EUR 11 billion of that is..
Gianfranco Amoroso
Not meaningful.
Paolo Gallo
Exactly. But the assumption is that by -- in 2028, the concession, there will be a tender completed.
Our assumption is that the Comune di Roma will continue to keep the ownership of the existing infrastructure by them and that is what is inside the plan.
Bartlomiej Kubicki
May I just ask one more clarification on point number one, please?
Paolo Gallo
Please.
Bartlomiej Kubicki
Yes. Regarding the smart meters and the remuneration of the quicker depreciation of the currently existing smart meters.
How confident are you that the regulator will be happy to allow you for another smart meters rollout while you have basically just a few years ago completed the smart meters rollout, which costed you probably EUR 1 billion plus. So there's additional kind of investments going into the network, additional, let's say, impact on the customers' bill.
So how are you -- how confident you are that the regulator would be happy to approve a similar scheme to what we had back in 2019, '22?
Paolo Gallo
It is not a matter to be happy or not happy. It's a matter that if GPRS will be discontinued.
We will have 6 million smart meter not working anymore. So it's not a matter to be happy or not happy.
It's a matter to understand the reality and say, okay, the previous smart meter that was developed and installed back 12 years ago, now has to be replaced with new ones because technology has changed. So the happiness should be -- there is a new technology that is much better than the old one.
And of course, they have to consider the loss of depreciation. But consider, as I said, the first smart meter were installed back in '13, '14.
There will be not a significant amount of depreciation to be paid.
Unknown Attendee
Thank you, Bart. There are no more questions from the conference call.
I reckon everyone here has been asking a question. IR team is available.
So thank you, everyone.
Paolo Gallo
Thank you. Thank you for coming.