• Aramco is running the East–West crude pipeline at about 3.5 million barrels per day, roughly half its 7 million-bpd design capacity, according to people familiar with the matter.
  • The partial restart restores a key export route to the Red Sea that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, easing some supply and shipping concerns.
  • Full restoration could still take weeks, and the throughput remains below the 4–5 million bpd the line was reportedly carrying before the September attacks.

A Partial Recovery for a Critical Corridor

Saudi Aramco (2222.SR) is now operating the Kingdom’s East–West crude pipeline at a rate of around 3.5 million barrels per day, according to people familiar with the matter, marking a meaningful partial recovery after drone attacks forced a precautionary shutdown earlier in September. The rate is roughly half of the pipeline’s 7 million-bpd design capacity, but it restores a major export corridor to Yanbu on the Red Sea and reduces—though does not eliminate—the oil-market and geopolitical risk tied to the Strait of Hormuz.

The pipeline was restarted around September 22 after the precautionary shutdown that followed attacks in the Riyadh and Madinah regions. At restart, the line was operating at a low rate, and the earlier target was approximately 4 million bpd, with full restoration projected to take roughly six to eight weeks. The current 3.5 million-bpd report suggests material progress toward that intermediate goal.

Why It Matters

The East–West Pipeline, often called Petroline, transports crude from Saudi Arabia’s eastern producing region to Yanbu, enabling exports through the Red Sea rather than via the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Its 7 million-bpd capacity includes roughly 2 million bpd serving west-coast refineries, while about 5 million bpd can potentially support exports. Actual flows and tanker loadings are normally lower than theoretical pipeline capacity.

The September attacks injured several people and caused physical damage. Saudi authorities said drones came from Iraq; Iraq condemned the incident and announced an investigation. Saudi Arabia initially chose not to retaliate, while reserving the right to protect its interests. The Ministry of Energy shut the line as a safety precaution and deployed emergency technical teams to secure and assess it.

News of the initial pipeline restart helped push Brent down more than $2 a barrel toward $97—the lowest since September 8. On September 22, Brent settled at $99.25, down 1.09%, as traders priced in increased Saudi supply and some improved movement through Hormuz. A flow of 3.5 million bpd is material relative to global physical markets, but it is below both the line’s capacity and the 4–5 million-bpd rate it was reportedly carrying before the attack. Thus, it reduces the supply shortfall and shipping bottleneck without fully restoring pre-attack flexibility.

Financial and Strategic Stakes

Saudi Aramco, formally the Saudi Arabian Oil Company, is Saudi Arabia’s state-backed, publicly listed integrated energy and chemicals company. It is the world’s largest integrated oil-and-gas company, managing the Kingdom’s hydrocarbon reserves while operating across crude production, refining, trading, petrochemicals, natural gas, power-related activities, and logistics.

In 2025, Aramco reported revenue of SAR 1.559 trillion, or about $415.8 billion, down 4.8% from 2024. Net income attributable to shareholders was SAR 348.0 billion, or about $92.8 billion, down 11.6% year on year. The profit decline reflected lower revenue and weaker sales-related income, partly offset by lower operating costs and reduced tax and zakat charges. In contrast, the first half of 2026 showed a strong earnings recovery amid heightened regional disruption and higher-value supply logistics. H1 2026 adjusted net income was $67.2 billion, with Q2 alone at $33.4 billion. Operating cash flow for the half was $56.2 billion, and free cash flow was $30.9 billion. The Q2 2026 base dividend was $21.9 billion, scheduled for payment in Q3. Gearing stood at 6.2% at June 30, 2026, versus 4.8% at March 31.

Oil exports fund a large share of Saudi public revenue and underpin projects associated with Vision 2030. Restored pipeline operations therefore support government revenue, Aramco cash generation, dividends, domestic investment, and the country’s ability to finance economic diversification. The episode also demonstrates that physical infrastructure—not merely upstream production capacity—has become the central constraint during conflict. Pipelines, storage, Red Sea ports, tanker availability, insurance, and secure passage through strategic waterways are increasingly important determinants of deliverable supply.

What to Watch

Throughput could continue rising from 3.5 million bpd toward the previously reported 4 million-bpd operational target if repairs, inspections, security measures, and supply scheduling proceed without another incident. A complete return to pre-attack flows may still take weeks. Previous estimates ranged from six to eight weeks, and repair timing remains vulnerable to fresh security threats.

As more Saudi crude reaches Yanbu and global shipping through Hormuz normalizes, oil prices may remain below the crisis highs. However, price volatility will likely persist because market sentiment is highly sensitive to attacks, shipping disruption, and diplomatic developments.

The apparent recovery also reinforces Saudi consideration of expanding the East–West pipeline by as much as 1–2 million bpd. Reuters reported in July that discussions were preliminary and could include refined-products capacity, potentially increasing the Kingdom’s and perhaps neighboring producers’ ability to bypass Hormuz.

The key benchmark to watch is whether Aramco can sustain and increase flows from the reported 3.5 million bpd without security incidents. A durable return toward 4–5 million bpd would materially improve export reliability; a return to the full 7 million-bpd system capacity would restore the strongest available Saudi buffer against Strait of Hormuz disruption.

Aramco did not immediately respond to a request for comment.